As we countdown the days and weeks until the beginning of the Iowa football season, we’ll be previewing each of Iowa’s opponents in 2020. While the season may seem far in the distant, we’re currently 10 weeks from our first game week of the year.
Our second entry in our series of previews is Iowa’s Week 3 matchup against the neighbors to the north: the Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
2019 Record: 11-2 (7-2), T-1st in Big Ten West
The Fleckoning finally arrived in Minneapolis as P.J. Fleck and his merry band of gilded rodents sprinted to a 9-0 start before coming to Iowa City on a caffeine- and win-induced high. They lost after Iowa racked up three quick touchdowns and could not mount a comeback.
After beating Northwestern they couldn’t seal the deal at home for a trip to Indianapolis and lost to Wisconsin. A bowl win over Auburn had them at 10th in the AP Poll which is their best finish to the season since a Murray Warmath coached them (1962).
Much was made about their schedule last year. Fine. They beat South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, and Purdue by a combined 20 points. But when they were on, they could fill it up quickly and had the third highest scoring offense in the Big Ten.
Key Departures
The Goofers got a lot of well-deserved credit for their troika of wide receivers and they’ll have to replace the most prolific of them in Tyler Johnson. The Buccaneers draft pick accumulated 1318 yards on 86 receptions for 13 touchdowns. He finished with 33 TDs in his career, which tops the career charts for Minnesota (as does his yardage).
Perhaps more importantly, running backs Rodney Smith and and Shannon Brooks. Smith finished with over 1100 yards and second on the career charts there. Considering Minnesota ran over 61% of the time, they’ll need to backfill the 300 carries between those two.
Defensively, the biggest loss is Antoine Winfield, Jr., who was the led the team in both tackles and interceptions. The Phil Parker Honorary Big Ten DB of the Year left early and was also drafted by Tampa Bay. Linebackers, Kamal Martin, Carter Coughlin, and corner back Chris Williamson round out Minnesota’s draft class. Green Bay reached when drafting Martin and that’s the end of my draft analysis.
Key Additions
Fleck is bringing in the 38th ranked class, according to 247sports. Receiver Daniel Jackson and linebacker Itayvion Brown are the highest rated by the service and may challenge for spots departed by draftees.
Also worth noting is JD Spielman wised up and transferred out of Lincoln. He would require a waiver to play immediately next year. The Cake Eater would have a good case for playing immediately as his father is GM of the Minnesota Vikings.
Key Returners
The biggest key returner is, of course, P.J. Fleck. He probably could have gone somewhere else if he wanted.
After him, QB1 Tanner Morgan is probably going to dictate just how well this team does. The junior completed 66% of his passes last year as he finished with well over 3000 yards (10+ per attempt) and 30 touchdowns. As one would expect with the high completion rate, he did a good job limiting turnovers with just 7 interceptions (2.2% of throws).
Speed demon Rashod Bateman finished with over 20 yards per catch last year (60 for 1219 and 11 touchdowns). He’ll factor in more heavily with the departure of the skill guys mentioned above and it would seem like a waste not to try him on a run or two as he’s currently bare in the department. Chris Autman-Bell joins him out wide with more modest numbers (28/371/5). Mohamed Ibrahim is the leading returning rusher at 604 yards (5.3 per carry) and 7 tuddies.
Daniel Faalele is back and remains giant along the offensive line at 6’9”, 400 lbs.
Defensively, Jordan Howden, Benjamin St-Justen, and Coney Durr return to the secondary. Mariano Sori-Marin is a linebacker who is back. There are some gaps here from a defense which gave up 22.5 a game.
2020 Preview
The discussion, for better or worse, begins with the schedule. They’ll drop Rutgers and Penn State (2 wins from last year) and add Michigan and at Michigan State. BYU comes to town in their non-conference and figures to be a tricky out.
Yet Minnesota has two things: a coach and a QB. The two can take you pretty far in the game of football and as much fun as it is to rag on PJ, The Fleckoning is here. Perhaps the scariest thing about him is he gets Big Ten football. He is winning games in the trenches with ball control and a strong running game and taking advantage of his skill players when the opportunity presents itself.
10 wins is going to be difficult to replicate, though. If they do, we’ll probably see Morgan make a trip to New York City as a Heisman finalist.
Would I want him to be head coach of Iowa? Probably not. His shtick would wear thin. But in the sports-saturated market of the Twin Cities...it’s kinda needed. It’s only a matter of time before he beats Iowa.
Iowa/Minnesota Prediction
Fleck has been at Minnesota three years and lost by 7, 17, and 4 points. After the blowout in 2018, he switched defensive coordinators and saw a flip which extended into 2019.
I’m not particularly excited about this game for a couple reasons: 1) it comes inside the three non-conference games I’ve come to expect from a Ferentz team. I just don’t trust Iowa to be conference-ready before the fourth game. 2) It’s on the Friday after the Iowa State game. 3) It’s at Minnesota.
If there’s a season for Fleck to break the streak, this kind of feels like this is it.
Should Iowa win, it feels like it would set the tone for the season as it probably means the defense asserts itself in some form or fashion. Gut says Fleck uses his stout offensive line to wear out a tired Hawkeye front from the Cy-Hawk.
Coinflip, but this one goes to Minnesota: 28-27.
Comments
I love listening to Fleck say all the right things about an opponent (especially Iowa) after a loss.
You can see it just kills him to choke those words out. He really hates losing to us.
Can’t stand the guys but you can’t argue with results. Please excuse me as I now vomit after saying that.
By Petes Sake on 06.26.20 8:23am
Seems like a perfect game for Petras and the Iowa offense to make a statement.
Just seems like this might be a shootout type of game with Morgan and that Minny offense returning a ton of production and both defenses likely taking a step back this season. Minnesota is having to replace 5 of their starting front 7 from last season(!!!), so this feels like a 100+-yard Goodson performance and 200+ yard day on the ground (crazy how little Sargent and IKM have been talked about this offseason considering how important they might be). And if Minny has to bear down on the run game, that’s a recipe for a field day over top with Iowa’s talent at receiver. I’d be shocked if both teams don’t score 28+ points.
In terms of the Big Ten West race, can’t really overstate how important this one is. Having it early in the season either gives you some early hope or early disappointment, especially when the season finale is set up to possibly be a play-in for the Big Ten Championship game.
By Gookin on 06.26.20 8:51am
It could be!
But the thing which impresses me most about Fleck (especially in comparison to Frost) is just how much he "gets" Big Ten West football. If he’s afraid of his defense springing leaks, he’s going to focus very heavily on ball control offense. I’m just not sure Iowa will be ready for with the inexperience along the defensive line so possessions are going to be at a premium. Minnesota was #5 in TOP and in the game against Iowa, both teams had 8 possessions.
I suspect the game you are referencing when thinking it will be a barnburner is Iowa/ISU 2017, which is a good one! We all thought that was a sign of things to come with Brian and Stanley and it was often referenced as "what could be!" But Iowa had 13 possessions (ISU, 14) in it. Just not sure we see that type back and forth between these teams.
By BoilerHawk on 06.26.20 9:18am
Good point, and you're probably right about Fleck playing the control game.
I just think Iowa/Ferentz has the upper hand in that category and if Iowa is able to grind out a 6-minute drive on the ground early in the game with little resistance from the Minnesota D, I think he’ll have no problem (or choice) but to unleash Morgan and put him in attack mode.
The 2018 game vs. Minnesota is a decent example—it was a chaotic game in general, but Iowa had two touchdown drives of under 90 seconds (one a 60-yard TD pass on broken coverage and the other on consecutive 20+ yard passes), both of which were followed up with Minnesota touchdowns—one on a 4:50 drive, the other followed up in 42 seconds. And Iowa still played their game! They had 16 possessions in that game, yet 2 of those possessions were 10+ play TD drives that accounted for 1/3rd of their total time of possession, yet it ended up with 79 total points scored. Definitely don’t think Brian/Kirk will be playing for a shootout regardless of how the game ends up, but it just seems like one of those games where Iowa might break a few big plays against that inexperienced defense and Minny is able to answer quickly.
By Gookin on 06.26.20 9:59am
Thinking Minnesota gets this one, Gookster.
By CarolinaHawk on 06.26.20 6:28pm
Yea...
this game has Gophers written all over it for a variety of reasons. Unless their QB comes down with C-19 prior to the game, they’ll be celebrating in the TCities that night.
By GradyDE on 06.26.20 9:30am
LOL
Wouldn’t that be a great preview?
"No clue who will be available due to COVID-19: ¯\(ツ)/¯"
By BoilerHawk on 06.26.20 9:37am
It's probably time for a post on the impact of COVID-19 on the sports gaming industry, is it not?
For anyone that may be into that kind of thing, of course.
By HoustonHawkeye on 06.26.20 9:44am
Somewhere...
there is a warehouse full of tablecoths
waiting to be made into jackets for PJ Fleck.
By WaterlooChazz on 06.26.20 12:48pm
Fleck works in Minnesota, where the Gophers are typically second fiddle at best.
He not only brings some personality to a team that even the natives ignored, he’s one of the better coaches in the league. He’s got all the bluster of Tim Brewster, but actually has some pedigree (built WMU from nothing) and recent history of success to back it up. In other words, he actually is what Nebraska fans think Scott Frost is.
By CarolinaHawk on 06.26.20 8:59pm
Rec’d for
MF-in truth!
Honestly, he’s the best coach they’ve had in my lifetime. He did have a boost in that their previous coach, Kill (well Claeys, but ya know) was also pretty good, so he wasn’t starting from nothing).
By Beltway Hawk on 06.27.20 12:14am
Mason was pretty good there too.
Then they got greedy and fired him for not winning more than 9 games.
By HoustonHawkeye on 06.27.20 9:20am
Mason couldn't beat Wisconsin or Iowa either, winning 7/8 games a year but always losing those two didn't help his cause.
Wisconsin has Iowa’s number right now, but Iowa is at least beating everyone else around them. Mason was their version of Dan McCarney.
By CarolinaHawk on 06.27.20 9:34am
McCarney never was as good as Mason as a coach.
ISU was so pumped to beat Iowa once in awhile they kept McCarney around, but I would still take Mason over McCarney for coaching aptitude. Mason also won at Kansas prior to Terry Allen – McCarney had a few up years for ISU but not many at North Texas (where he was no John Fry!).
By HoustonHawkeye on 06.27.20 3:25pm
My point is that he could never get Minnesota over the hump, with the hump being Wisconsin and Iowa.
Similarly, McCarney’s 2004 and 2005 teams missed great chances to win the B12 North.
By CarolinaHawk on 06.27.20 11:05pm
Agree on that.
By HoustonHawkeye on 06.27.20 11:56pm
The thing I hate about Fleck and Frost...
Is that they coach their players to flop, and they are both always in the officials ear, much like Harbaugh.
I hate watching football players flop… like soccer.
By ZN0rseman on 06.26.20 11:46pm
They've sure taken the Dark Mantonio torch, haven't they?
By HoustonHawkeye on 06.27.20 9:21am