COLLEGE FOOTBALL THOR+ RATINGS SINCE 2000

Editor's Note: You could probably figure it out from the post itself, but Matt is indeed the artist formerly known 'round these parts as TitoHawk.  He's dropped that nom de plume, but he's still providing us with his excellent analysis. -- Ross

It's still the offseason and with no college football or basketball to watch, I've been tinkering with spreadsheets in my spare time. Up until this point, I had only calculated my ratings (THOR+) back to the 2007 season for football and basketball. And while I haven't dug into college basketball quite yet, I've spent the last couple of weeks tweaking the model and calculating THOR+ for every FBS college football team since the 2000 season. That is right around 1600 individual teams. That is a lot of teams.

Because Tableau is now available for use on my MacBook, I finally have a better way to display all of this data than in just one really big spreadsheet. In one chart, patterns become visible that were not otherwise noticeable in spreadsheet form. I found it interesting, so I thought I would share.

The chart above plots each FBS (formerly Division I) football team since the 2000 season by their THOR+ rating. The size of the circle signifies how "lucky" the model thought they were. Therefore, a small circle (like 2008 Iowa) means THOR+ feels that the team lost more games than they were expected to, while a big circle (like 2009 Iowa) means the opposite. The chart is divided up by conference, but it starts with the Big Ten because this is a blog about Iowa sports. If you click on a team's circle, it will highlight each season from that team. This allows you to visually see just how bad Indiana has been over the past decade and change. Or, if you click over to the SEC, it allows you to see in chart form the reascension of Alabama to the top of college football under Nick Saban. Whatever floats your boat.

Before pointing out too many more observations, let me explain a few things. First, I have changed the football ratings this year to be more similar to the basketball ones that you may be more familiar with. Similar basketball, the ratings are now based on points per play scored or allowed by each team's offense, defense, and special teams units. Those numbers are then scaled so that a total greater than 100 is above average and a total below 100 is below average. Finally, the numbers are adjusted for strength of schedule.

For example, the 2008 Iowa team had an offensive rating of 117, a defensive rating of 158, and a special teams rating of 116. In English, that means the offense was 17% better than the average 2008 offense in terms of scoring points (thanks, Shonn Greene!), while the the defense was 58% better than the average 2008 defense at keeping points off the board (they were absolute terror monsters), and the special teams was 16% better than average 2008 special teams unit when it came to scoring and denying their opponents from scoring. That all comes out to a THOR+ rating of 135 or 35% better than the average 2008 team.

Got it? Good. Now, let's dig in.

First, Iowa:

Rank	Team	Year	Season Rank	Offense	Offense+	Defense	Defense+	Special Teams	Special Teams+	THOR	THOR+
1	Iowa	2002	#3	133	139	121	126	284	295	140	146
2	Iowa	2008	#8	118	118	158	159	116	116	135	135
3	Iowa	2003	#11	105	112	146	156	116	124	124	132
4	Iowa	2005	#15	114	124	129	141	95	104	119	130
5	Iowa	2010	#16	108	112	138	140	153	158	124	127
6	Iowa	2001	#14	144	153	117	124	-17	-16	119	127
7	Iowa	2009	#28	82	85	149	151	156	163	116	119
8	Iowa	2004	#29	84	90	133	142	134	143	109	117
9	Iowa	2013	#42	83	88	128	132	149	159	108	113
10	Iowa	2011	#37	105	108	115	118	99	103	109	112
11	Iowa	2006	#45	97	102	111	117	103	108	103	109
12	Iowa	2007	#57	73	71	139	137	99	96	103	101
13	Iowa	2012	#73	58	61	116	120	135	142	89	93
14	Iowa	2000	#69	63	71	97	110	112	126	81	92

Note: "+" means that the number has been adjusted for strength of schedule.

According to THOR+, the 2002 team rates out as the best team of the Kirk Ferentz era -- I think it's safe to assume that 1999 would rate out just a tad bit lower -- at 46% better than the average 2002 team. That team also had the best special teams unit of this time period. Meanwhile, the 2008 team had the best defense out of the last 14 teams, with 2003 not far behind. And, of course, the 2001 team rates out as the best offense of this time period.

Wait a minute, what? Yeah... This would be one rating that I don't totally agree with. That 2001 team ended up having quite a few good players on it and I think they were better than their final record indicated, but I would most definitely not call that year's offense better than 2002. So why does that year's offense rate so high? Because the 2001 team scored a lot of points on bad teams that year, which artificially inflated their offensive points per play. What I find the most interesting about the comparison between 2001 and 2002, though, is how much of an improvement Iowa saw on special teams. They went from being one of the worst in the nation to being one of the best.

As for those middle teams, 2009 and 2004 were both really fun, but they don't rate as high because the offenses just weren't very good. 2004 was the first great running back plague, while 2009 was the year of the Rick-6. But speaking of awful offenses, hello, 2007, 2000, and 2012! We are still only two years removed from the inaugural Greg Davis season, and while last year was better, I'm not ready to give the stamp of approval.

One thing I love is when the numbers back up what the eyes see. And one thing you'll notice with the ratings, just like with your eyes, is that Iowa under Kirk Ferentz almost always has a very good defense and special teams (recent string of being fooled by fake punts and field goals not withstanding). It's the offense, on the other hand, that tends to be a crapshoot. Only 8 of the last 14 seasons have seen Iowa with an offense that has rated out higher than the norm. And the 2006 team only beat that norm by 2%. I say "only" because that's just barely above 50% of the time, and Greg Davis as the offensive coordinator doesn't exactly instill confidence in me without Vince Young or Colt McCoy at quarterback. Anyway, my point is: Kirk Ferentz is an old school defense-first type of coach. He grew up idolizing Joe Paterno and Penn State, and what's incredible to me was just how identical the average ratings from 2000-2011 (the last season Paterno coached) were for both Iowa and Penn State.

Team	Coach	Year	Season Rank	Offense	Offense+	Defense	Defense+	Special Teams	Special Teams+	THOR	THOR+
Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	2000-2011	#28	102	107	129	135	121	127	115	121
Penn State	Joe Paterno	2000-2011	#29	97	102	135	141	119	126	115	121

Those are each team's averages from that time period, and the resemblance is uncanny. Ferentz had the better offense, while Paterno had the better defense, on the whole. Special teams was essentially a wash, and so was the average THOR+ rating. Weird.

Now that I've discussed Iowa a bit, let's look at the best and worst Big Ten teams during this era.

Rank	Team	Year	Coach	Conference	Season Rank	Offense	Offense+	Defense	Defense+	Special Teams	Special Teams+	THOR	THOR+
1	Ohio State	2006	Jim Tressel	Big Ten	#2	156	163	142	148	187	196	152	159
2	Penn State	2008	Joe Paterno	Big Ten	#5	144	147	140	141	231	236	149	151
3	Ohio State	2005	Jim Tressel	Big Ten	#3	116	133	139	159	194	222	132	151
4	Wisconsin	2011	Bret Bielema	Big Ten	#4	183	188	116	118	74	76	145	149
5	Iowa	2002	Kirk Ferentz	Big Ten	#3	133	139	121	126	284	295	140	146
6	Penn State	2005	Joe Paterno	Big Ten	#4	128	140	139	153	96	105	130	143
7	Penn State	2002	Joe Paterno	Big Ten	#6	133	141	137	145	119	126	134	142
8	Purdue	2004	Joe Tiller	Big Ten	#7	123	129	140	146	171	178	135	140
9	Wisconsin	2013	Gary Andersen	Big Ten	#10	128	133	138	140	147	153	134	138
10	Ohio State	2013	Urban Meyer	Big Ten	#11	170	174	113	115	28	28	134	137
11	Ohio State	2002	Jim Tressel	Big Ten	#9	110	117	154	163	105	112	129	136
12	Michigan	2000	Lloyd Carr	Big Ten	#9	138	143	129	134	96	99	131	135
13	Ohio State	2010	Jim Tressel	Big Ten	#7	134	133	148	148	80	80	136	135
14	Iowa	2008	Kirk Ferentz	Big Ten	#8	118	118	158	159	116	116	135	135
15	Iowa	2003	Kirk Ferentz	Big Ten	#11	105	112	146	156	116	124	124	132

The top 15 includes a lot of Ohio State, which is as about as surprising as death and taxes, really. And THOR+ credits the 2006 Buckeye team as being the best Big Ten squad of this time period. More surprising to me, though, is that Michigan only had one team make the list. And to continue the weird coincidence, our beloved Hawkeyes and their mirror image in State College both had 3 teams make the list.

I'm not going to lie though. As much as I like looking at the best teams, I also really get a kick out of looking at the worst:

Rank	Team	Year	Coach	Conference	Season Rank	Offense	Offense+	Defense	Defense+	Special Teams	Special Teams+	THOR	THOR+
1	Illinois	2005	Ron Zook	Big Ten	#118	58	65	37	41	-85	-76	37	43
2	Indiana	2003	Gerry DiNardo	Big Ten	#110	49	51	66	68	84	87	59	61
3	Minnesota	2010	Tim Brewster	Big Ten	#109	88	93	48	57	-57	-54	59	66
4	Indiana	2002	Gerry DiNardo	Big Ten	#106	74	77	48	50	98	103	65	67
5	Indiana	2008	Bill Lynch	Big Ten	#109	79	77	74	70	35	34	73	70
6	Indiana	2011	Kevin Wilson	Big Ten	#112	68	69	65	67	93	95	69	70
7	Illinois	2012	Tim Beckman	Big Ten	#111	60	64	65	72	98	104	65	70
8	Illinois	2003	Ron Turner	Big Ten	#104	57	61	73	79	86	93	66	71
9	Purdue	2013	Darrell Hazell	Big Ten	#107	58	64	62	74	96	106	63	71
10	Indiana	2010	Bill Lynch	Big Ten	#99	91	89	62	58	69	68	77	74
11	Northwestern	2002	Randy Walker	Big Ten	#98	86	90	50	53	87	91	71	74
12	Northwestern	2007	Pat Fitzgerald	Big Ten	#97	87	85	66	62	96	94	79	76
13	Indiana	2005	Terry Hoeppner	Big Ten	#97	89	96	72	77	-23	-22	73	79
14	Indiana	2006	Terry Hoeppner	Big Ten	#93	80	83	44	46	237	248	77	80
15	Purdue	2010	Danny Hope	Big Ten	#93	66	67	89	91	105	107	79	81

If it wasn't a surprise that Ohio State dominated the top 15, it shouldn't be any less shocking to find this list populated mostly by Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern. And if you happen to be skeptical of numbers, I hope it eases your mind a bit to see that two of the three worst teams from this conference in the last 14 years were coached by none other than Ron Zook and Tim Brewster. Honestly, I'm kind of surprised to only see Tim Brewster on this list only one time. Of course, Iowa also lost to that 2010 Minnesota team in a season that will forever haunt my memories. Moving on.

To wrap this up, I would like to end with similar lists for the entirety of FBS college football.

Rank	Team	Year	Coach	Conference	Season Rank	Offense	Offense+	Defense	Defense+	Special Teams	Special Teams+	THOR	THOR+
1	Texas	2005	Mack Brown	Big 12	#1	192	212	134	148	151	166	164	181
2	Florida	2008	Urban Meyer	SEC	#1	185	205	148	153	134	149	165	178
3	Kansas State	2002	Bill Snyder	Big 12	#1	172	176	154	158	279	286	173	177
4	Florida State	2013	Jimbo Fisher	ACC	#1	185	186	153	153	208	210	173	174
5	LSU	2006	Les Miles	SEC	#1	153	164	146	157	228	245	156	168
6	USC	2008	Pete Carroll	Pac-10	#2	151	164	161	164	188	204	158	167
7	Florida State	2000	Bobby Bowden	ACC	#1	159	175	161	177	49	54	151	166
8	USC	2004	Pete Carroll	Pac-10	#1	152	170	151	168	114	128	148	166
9	LSU	2011	Les Miles	SEC	#1	136	156	165	169	177	203	152	165
10	Florida	2007	Urban Meyer	SEC	#1	182	205	107	116	162	183	148	165
11	Alabama	2012	Nick Saban	SEC	#1	156	172	153	157	139	153	153	164
12	Florida	2001	Steve Spurrier	SEC	#1	169	184	138	150	104	114	150	164
13	Miami (Florida)	2001	Larry Coker	Big East	#2	149	161	162	175	99	107	151	163
14	Oregon	2010	Chip Kelly	Pac-10	#1	151	169	141	146	188	210	149	162
15	USC	2005	Pete Carroll	Pac-10	#2	187	210	108	122	81	91	145	162

I find it hilarious/maddening that the offensive coordinator for the number one team on this list is now the offensive coordinator for my favorite college football team, and I'm not at all excited about it. It also annoys me that a head coach that appears on this list twice is now the head coach at the Big Ten powerhouse school. Bleh.

Rank	Team	Year	Coach	Conference	Season Rank	Offense	Offense+	Defense	Defense+	Special Teams	Special Teams+	THOR	THOR+
1	North Texas	2008	Todd Dodge	Sun Belt	#120	68	65	0	-12	-92	-97	26	19
2	Eastern Michigan	2010	Ron English	MAC	#120	79	73	1	-18	10	10	40	29
3	Eastern Michigan	2013	Ron English	MAC	#125	71	66	18	2	-17	-18	41	32
4	Louisiana-Monroe	2000	Bobby Keasler	Independent	#114	33	29	28	24	110	95	37	32
5	Florida International	2013	Ron Turner	CUSA	#124	36	33	49	34	42	38	42	33
6	New Mexico	2011	Mike Locksley	MWC	#120	47	45	29	20	50	48	40	34
7	Eastern Michigan	2009	Ron English	MAC	#120	69	63	28	12	2	2	46	37
8	Massachusetts	2012	Charley Molnar	MAC	#124	40	38	47	40	14	13	41	37
9	New Mexico State	2013	Doug Martin	Independent	#123	76	71	31	17	-51	-55	46	38
10	Washington State	2008	Paul Wulff	Pac-10	#119	50	53	15	25	13	13	32	38
11	Temple	2005	Bobby Wallace	Independent	#119	41	45	25	27	60	65	36	39
12	New Mexico State	2010	DeWayne Walker	WAC	#119	43	41	39	32	67	65	43	39
13	UTEP	2002	Gary Nord	WAC	#117	67	63	21	20	1	1	42	39
14	Idaho	2013	Paul Petrino	Independent	#122	60	58	27	21	31	30	43	40
15	Buffalo	2000	Craig Cirbus	MAC	#113	66	58	28	25	42	37	48	42

Eastern Michigan: Woof.

And that's about enough. In separate upcoming posts I will take a look at offenses and defenses, and break those down a little more than I did here. Until then, play around with the chart and hopefully find something interesting. And, of course, feel free to post your observations.