BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 12

Would you like a quick recap of the Big Ten in week 12? Melvin Gordon. You're welcome.

Post-Week 12 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%	36.7%	60.4%	0.0%
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.9%	50.4%	36.7%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	65.9%	30.8%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	34.2%	50.3%	15.5%	0.0%	0.0%
Purdue	18.6%	55.5%	25.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	23.7%	52.3%	24.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	0.0%	25.5%	54.0%	20.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	21.4%	76.7%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.5%	45.1%	49.4%	0.0%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.3%	56.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	34.5%	56.5%	9.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	36.3%	49.4%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	59.7%	35.8%	4.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	37.0%	57.9%	5.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Bump, bump, bump, another one bites the dust. Thanks to Melvin Gordon's ridiculous performance on the ground, the Big Ten is left with only one team that could make the college football playoff after week 12. Ohio State may need some help to do so, but they are the Big Ten's only team left standing.

B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%	36.7%	60.4%	0.0%
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	13.0%	50.3%	36.7%	0.0%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	65.8%	30.9%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	34.2%	50.3%	15.5%	0.0%	0.0%
Purdue	0.0%	18.6%	55.5%	25.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	23.7%	52.2%	24.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	25.5%	54.0%	20.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	21.3%	76.8%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.5%	45.2%	49.3%	0.0%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.3%	56.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	34.6%	56.5%	8.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	36.3%	49.4%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	59.6%	35.8%	4.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	37.1%	57.8%	5.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Needless to say, Ohio State is now one week closer to their inevitable division championship.

On the other side of the conference, THOR+ is now even more confident than it was last week that Wisconsin will win the Big Ten West. Of course, it's not quite a given that the Badgers will be the division champs. Nebraska could still win the division if they win out and Wisconsin loses to both Iowa and Minnesota. The Gophers could still win the division if they can find a way to knock off both Nebraska and Wisconsin on the road. In that scenario, Wisconsin and Minnesota could both have 2 conference losses, but Minnesota would hold the tie-breaker. And, honestly, if I'm reading all the confusing scenarios correctly (feel free to point out if I'm missing something here), that's the only scenario in which Wisconsin going 1-1 in the final two weeks doesn't still take the division.

As for our beloved Hawkeyes, they can still win the division if they win out, but they also need Minnesota to lose a game since they have the tie-breaker over Iowa. If Iowa loses one of their games, there is no way for a 3-win team to win the West. That means it is do or die for Iowa, but at least their final two games are at home. That's why THOR+ thinks they have better odds to win out than Minnesota does.

Per usual, here are the mean, min, and max wins for each Big Ten team.

B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Wisconsin	9.6	8	10	6.6	5	7
Nebraska	9.2	8	10	5.2	4	6
Minnesota	7.4	7	9	4.4	4	6
Iowa	7.8	7	9	4.8	4	6
Purdue	4.1	3	5	2.1	1	3
Illinois	5.0	4	6	2.0	1	3
Northwestern	5.0	4	6	3.0	2	4
B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Ohio State	10.7	9	11	7.7	6	8
Michigan State	9.4	8	10	6.4	5	7
Maryland	7.1	6	8	4.1	3	5
Michigan	5.7	5	7	3.7	3	5
Penn State	6.8	6	8	2.8	2	4
Rutgers	6.4	6	8	2.4	2	4
Indiana	3.7	3	5	0.7	0	2

Finally, here's a look at the remaining games on everyone's schedule.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Wisconsin	34.2%
11/28	vs. Nebraska	50.8%

Wisconsin's thrashing of Nebraska this weekend simultaneously made Iowa's odds of beating the Badgers drop and their odds of beating the Huskers go up.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Projected Win%
11/22	at Iowa	65.8%
11/29	vs. Minnesota	87.9%

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Minnesota	71.8%
11/28	at Iowa	49.2%

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Projected Win%
11/22	at Nebraska	28.2%
11/29	at Wisconsin	12.1%

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Northwestern	64.4%
11/29	at Indiana	42.0%

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Penn State	60.4%
11/29	at Northwestern	38.7%

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Projected Win%
11/22	at Purdue	35.6%
11/29	vs. Illinois	61.3%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Indiana	90.3%
11/29	vs. Michigan	85.3%

Favorable schedule, wouldn't you say?

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Rutgers	82.2%
11/29	at Penn State	58.1%

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Projected Win%
11/22	at Michigan	43.8%
11/29	vs. Rutgers	74.1%

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Maryland	56.2%
11/29	at Ohio State	14.7%

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Projected Win%
11/22	at Illinois	39.6%
11/29	vs. Michigan State	41.9%

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Projected Win%
11/22	at Michigan State	17.8%
11/29	at Maryland	25.9%

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Projected Win%
11/22	at Ohio State	9.7%
11/29	vs. Purdue	58.0%

Will Indiana get a conference win?