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Would you like a quick recap of the Big Ten in week 12? Melvin Gordon. You're welcome.
Post-Week 12 Win Projections
B1G West Season Wins | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 36.7% | 60.4% | 0.0% |
Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.9% | 50.4% | 36.7% | 0.0% |
Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.9% | 30.8% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.2% | 50.3% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Purdue | 18.6% | 55.5% | 25.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Illinois | 0.0% | 23.7% | 52.3% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Northwestern | 0.0% | 25.5% | 54.0% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
B1G East Season Wins | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 21.4% | 76.7% |
Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 45.1% | 49.4% | 0.0% |
Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.3% | 56.1% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.5% | 56.5% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.3% | 49.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Rutgers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.7% | 35.8% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Indiana | 37.0% | 57.9% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bump, bump, bump, another one bites the dust. Thanks to Melvin Gordon's ridiculous performance on the ground, the Big Ten is left with only one team that could make the college football playoff after week 12. Ohio State may need some help to do so, but they are the Big Ten's only team left standing.
B1G West Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 36.7% | 60.4% | 0.0% |
Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 50.3% | 36.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.8% | 30.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.2% | 50.3% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Purdue | 0.0% | 18.6% | 55.5% | 25.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Illinois | 0.0% | 23.7% | 52.2% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 54.0% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
B1G East Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 21.3% | 76.8% |
Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 45.2% | 49.3% | 0.0% |
Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.3% | 56.1% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.6% | 56.5% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.3% | 49.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Rutgers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.6% | 35.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Indiana | 37.1% | 57.8% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Needless to say, Ohio State is now one week closer to their inevitable division championship.
On the other side of the conference, THOR+ is now even more confident than it was last week that Wisconsin will win the Big Ten West. Of course, it's not quite a given that the Badgers will be the division champs. Nebraska could still win the division if they win out and Wisconsin loses to both Iowa and Minnesota. The Gophers could still win the division if they can find a way to knock off both Nebraska and Wisconsin on the road. In that scenario, Wisconsin and Minnesota could both have 2 conference losses, but Minnesota would hold the tie-breaker. And, honestly, if I'm reading all the confusing scenarios correctly (feel free to point out if I'm missing something here), that's the only scenario in which Wisconsin going 1-1 in the final two weeks doesn't still take the division.
As for our beloved Hawkeyes, they can still win the division if they win out, but they also need Minnesota to lose a game since they have the tie-breaker over Iowa. If Iowa loses one of their games, there is no way for a 3-win team to win the West. That means it is do or die for Iowa, but at least their final two games are at home. That's why THOR+ thinks they have better odds to win out than Minnesota does.
Per usual, here are the mean, min, and max wins for each Big Ten team.
B1G West | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
Wisconsin | 9.6 | 8 | 10 | 6.6 | 5 | 7 |
Nebraska | 9.2 | 8 | 10 | 5.2 | 4 | 6 |
Minnesota | 7.4 | 7 | 9 | 4.4 | 4 | 6 |
Iowa | 7.8 | 7 | 9 | 4.8 | 4 | 6 |
Purdue | 4.1 | 3 | 5 | 2.1 | 1 | 3 |
Illinois | 5.0 | 4 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 | 3 |
Northwestern | 5.0 | 4 | 6 | 3.0 | 2 | 4 |
B1G East | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
Ohio State | 10.7 | 9 | 11 | 7.7 | 6 | 8 |
Michigan State | 9.4 | 8 | 10 | 6.4 | 5 | 7 |
Maryland | 7.1 | 6 | 8 | 4.1 | 3 | 5 |
Michigan | 5.7 | 5 | 7 | 3.7 | 3 | 5 |
Penn State | 6.8 | 6 | 8 | 2.8 | 2 | 4 |
Rutgers | 6.4 | 6 | 8 | 2.4 | 2 | 4 |
Indiana | 3.7 | 3 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | 2 |
Finally, here's a look at the remaining games on everyone's schedule.
Big Ten West
Iowa
Date | Iowa | Projected Win% |
11/22 | vs. Wisconsin | 34.2% |
11/28 | vs. Nebraska | 50.8% |
Wisconsin's thrashing of Nebraska this weekend simultaneously made Iowa's odds of beating the Badgers drop and their odds of beating the Huskers go up.
Wisconsin
Date | Wisconsin | Projected Win% |
11/22 | at Iowa | 65.8% |
11/29 | vs. Minnesota | 87.9% |
Nebraska
Date | Nebraska | Projected Win% |
11/22 | vs. Minnesota | 71.8% |
11/28 | at Iowa | 49.2% |
Minnesota
Date | Minnesota | Projected Win% |
11/22 | at Nebraska | 28.2% |
11/29 | at Wisconsin | 12.1% |
Purdue
Date | Purdue | Projected Win% |
11/22 | vs. Northwestern | 64.4% |
11/29 | at Indiana | 42.0% |
Illinois
Date | Illinois | Projected Win% |
11/22 | vs. Penn State | 60.4% |
11/29 | at Northwestern | 38.7% |
Northwestern
Date | Northwestern | Projected Win% |
11/22 | at Purdue | 35.6% |
11/29 | vs. Illinois | 61.3% |
Big Ten East
Ohio State
Date | Ohio State | Projected Win% |
11/22 | vs. Indiana | 90.3% |
11/29 | vs. Michigan | 85.3% |
Favorable schedule, wouldn't you say?
Michigan State
Date | Michigan State | Projected Win% |
11/22 | vs. Rutgers | 82.2% |
11/29 | at Penn State | 58.1% |
Maryland
Date | Maryland | Projected Win% |
11/22 | at Michigan | 43.8% |
11/29 | vs. Rutgers | 74.1% |
Michigan
Date | Michigan | Projected Win% |
11/22 | vs. Maryland | 56.2% |
11/29 | at Ohio State | 14.7% |
Penn State
Date | Penn State | Projected Win% |
11/22 | at Illinois | 39.6% |
11/29 | vs. Michigan State | 41.9% |
Rutgers
Date | Rutgers | Projected Win% |
11/22 | at Michigan State | 17.8% |
11/29 | at Maryland | 25.9% |
Indiana
Date | Indiana | Projected Win% |
11/22 | at Ohio State | 9.7% |
11/29 | vs. Purdue | 58.0% |
Will Indiana get a conference win?