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BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 12

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After week 12, Ohio State is still the outright favorite in the Big Ten East, while Melvin Gordon is the frontrunner in the West.

Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Would you like a quick recap of the Big Ten in week 12? Melvin Gordon. You're welcome.

Post-Week 12 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 36.7% 60.4% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 50.4% 36.7% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.9% 30.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.2% 50.3% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue 18.6% 55.5% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 23.7% 52.3% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 25.5% 54.0% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 21.4% 76.7%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 45.1% 49.4% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 56.1% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 34.5% 56.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.3% 49.4% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.7% 35.8% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 37.0% 57.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bump, bump, bump, another one bites the dust. Thanks to Melvin Gordon's ridiculous performance on the ground, the Big Ten is left with only one team that could make the college football playoff after week 12. Ohio State may need some help to do so, but they are the Big Ten's only team left standing.

B1G West Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 36.7% 60.4% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 50.3% 36.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.8% 30.9% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.2% 50.3% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue 0.0% 18.6% 55.5% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 23.7% 52.2% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 25.5% 54.0% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 21.3% 76.8%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 45.2% 49.3% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 56.1% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.6% 56.5% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 0.0% 36.3% 49.4% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 59.6% 35.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 37.1% 57.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Needless to say, Ohio State is now one week closer to their inevitable division championship.

On the other side of the conference, THOR+ is now even more confident than it was last week that Wisconsin will win the Big Ten West. Of course, it's not quite a given that the Badgers will be the division champs. Nebraska could still win the division if they win out and Wisconsin loses to both Iowa and Minnesota. The Gophers could still win the division if they can find a way to knock off both Nebraska and Wisconsin on the road. In that scenario, Wisconsin and Minnesota could both have 2 conference losses, but Minnesota would hold the tie-breaker. And, honestly, if I'm reading all the confusing scenarios correctly (feel free to point out if I'm missing something here), that's the only scenario in which Wisconsin going 1-1 in the final two weeks doesn't still take the division.

As for our beloved Hawkeyes, they can still win the division if they win out, but they also need Minnesota to lose a game since they have the tie-breaker over Iowa. If Iowa loses one of their games, there is no way for a 3-win team to win the West. That means it is do or die for Iowa, but at least their final two games are at home. That's why THOR+ thinks they have better odds to win out than Minnesota does.

Per usual, here are the mean, min, and max wins for each Big Ten team.

B1G West Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Wisconsin 9.6 8 10 6.6 5 7
Nebraska 9.2 8 10 5.2 4 6
Minnesota 7.4 7 9 4.4 4 6
Iowa 7.8 7 9 4.8 4 6
Purdue 4.1 3 5 2.1 1 3
Illinois 5.0 4 6 2.0 1 3
Northwestern 5.0 4 6 3.0 2 4
B1G East Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Ohio State 10.7 9 11 7.7 6 8
Michigan State 9.4 8 10 6.4 5 7
Maryland 7.1 6 8 4.1 3 5
Michigan 5.7 5 7 3.7 3 5
Penn State 6.8 6 8 2.8 2 4
Rutgers 6.4 6 8 2.4 2 4
Indiana 3.7 3 5 0.7 0 2

Finally, here's a look at the remaining games on everyone's schedule.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date Iowa Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Wisconsin 34.2%
11/28 vs. Nebraska 50.8%

Wisconsin's thrashing of Nebraska this weekend simultaneously made Iowa's odds of beating the Badgers drop and their odds of beating the Huskers go up.

Wisconsin

Date Wisconsin Projected Win%
11/22 at Iowa 65.8%
11/29 vs. Minnesota 87.9%

Nebraska

Date Nebraska Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Minnesota 71.8%
11/28 at Iowa 49.2%

Minnesota

Date Minnesota Projected Win%
11/22 at Nebraska 28.2%
11/29 at Wisconsin 12.1%

Purdue

Date Purdue Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Northwestern 64.4%
11/29 at Indiana 42.0%

Illinois

Date Illinois Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Penn State 60.4%
11/29 at Northwestern 38.7%

Northwestern

Date Northwestern Projected Win%
11/22 at Purdue 35.6%
11/29 vs. Illinois 61.3%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date Ohio State Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Indiana 90.3%
11/29 vs. Michigan 85.3%

Favorable schedule, wouldn't you say?

Michigan State

Date Michigan State Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Rutgers 82.2%
11/29 at Penn State 58.1%

Maryland

Date Maryland Projected Win%
11/22 at Michigan 43.8%
11/29 vs. Rutgers 74.1%

Michigan

Date Michigan Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Maryland 56.2%
11/29 at Ohio State 14.7%

Penn State

Date Penn State Projected Win%
11/22 at Illinois 39.6%
11/29 vs. Michigan State 41.9%

Rutgers

Date Rutgers Projected Win%
11/22 at Michigan State 17.8%
11/29 at Maryland 25.9%

Indiana

Date Indiana Projected Win%
11/22 at Ohio State 9.7%
11/29 vs. Purdue 58.0%

Will Indiana get a conference win?