BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 8

For the second week in a row, there weren't any real conference championship-disrupting upsets. Minnesota narrowly avoided being upset by a suddenly decent looking Purdue team, but that was about the only thing that almost gave us pause.

Anyway, I planned on incorporating these win projections into the weekly power rankings, but that is already a lengthy piece, so this seemed to warrant it's own post. So here we go.

Post-Week 8 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.9%	13.8%	35.0%	34.9%	13.2%
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.5%	5.0%	17.6%	28.7%	27.2%	17.9%	3.1%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.2%	25.7%	34.2%	25.8%	6.4%	0.7%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	16.0%	34.5%	29.3%	15.0%	2.9%	0.0%
Purdue	9.5%	33.3%	38.3%	17.6%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	4.6%	24.4%	37.0%	24.3%	9.2%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	4.3%	20.6%	35.2%	30.2%	8.9%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	6.0%	19.9%	35.9%	28.9%	8.6%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	3.8%	18.4%	33.6%	33.3%	10.7%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	6.5%	30.1%	32.5%	24.9%	4.9%	0.0%
Michigan	7.7%	27.3%	39.0%	21.2%	4.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	2.7%	14.6%	27.3%	31.4%	17.6%	5.7%	0.7%	0.0%
Indiana	4.5%	23.2%	36.1%	28.0%	7.1%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	13.2%	38.8%	33.5%	12.0%	2.2%	0.3%	0.0%

As far as total wins go, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Nebraska still have shots at going 11-1, advancing to the Big Ten championship game, and vying for a spot in the college football playoff.

B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.9%	13.8%	34.9%	35.0%	13.2%	0.0%
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.5%	5.0%	17.6%	28.8%	27.1%	17.9%	3.1%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.2%	25.7%	34.2%	25.8%	6.4%	0.7%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	16.1%	34.4%	29.3%	15.0%	2.9%	0.0%
Purdue	0.0%	9.5%	33.4%	38.3%	17.5%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	28.3%	39.1%	21.6%	5.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	4.3%	20.5%	35.3%	30.2%	8.9%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	6.0%	19.9%	35.9%	28.9%	8.6%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	3.8%	18.4%	33.6%	33.3%	10.7%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	6.5%	30.1%	32.5%	24.9%	4.9%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	7.7%	27.3%	39.0%	21.2%	4.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	7.4%	24.5%	34.9%	23.7%	8.5%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	4.5%	23.2%	36.1%	28.0%	7.1%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	13.2%	38.7%	33.6%	12.0%	2.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

As for the conference portion of the schedule, those three teams are your favorites right now. Although, while Nebraska may be the current favorite by THOR+, the Big Ten West is still far from settled. Minnesota is currently still 3-0 in the conference, and Wisconsin and Iowa only have 1 loss. November should be very interesting in the West Division.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten East is mainly a two team race between Ohio State and Michigan State, but THOR+ is giving Maryland an outside chance, too.

And just for the hell of it, here are each team's mean, min, and max wins:

B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Nebraska	9.4	6	11	5.4	2	7
Wisconsin	7.4	4	10	4.4	1	7
Minnesota	8.0	6	11	5.0	3	8
Iowa	7.5	5	10	4.5	2	7
Purdue	4.7	3	7	2.7	1	5
Northwestern	5.1	3	8	3.9	2	6
Illinois	5.2	3	8	2.2	0	5
B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Ohio State	9.1	5	11	6.1	2	8
Michigan State	9.3	6	11	6.3	3	8
Maryland	7.9	5	10	4.9	2	7
Michigan	4.9	3	8	2.9	1	6
Penn State	6.7	4	10	3.0	1	6
Indiana	5.1	3	8	2.1	0	5
Rutgers	6.5	5	10	2.5	1	6

Finally, let's take a look at the rest of the season for each team.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Projected Win%
11/1	vs. Northwestern	68.8%
11/8	at Minnesota	36.0%
11/15	at Illinois	44.5%
11/22	vs. Wisconsin	54.3%
11/28	vs. Nebraska	45.9%

November is going to be a grind for the Hawkeyes. THOR+ currently has them favored in only two of their final five games*, and three of those games are essentially considered coin flips right now. The numbers can and will change, but I really hope their best football is ahead of them.

* Yes, THOR+ currently has Illinois favored over Iowa in Champaign. Illinois' numbers still have a lot of Wes Lunt in them, though, so don't freak out. A whole lot can change in the next four weeks.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Projected Win%
10/25	vs. Rutgers	85.4%
11/1	vs. Purdue	83.6%
11/15	at Wisconsin	43.8%
11/22	vs. Minnesota	79.3%
11/28	at Iowa	54.1%

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Projected Win%
10/25	vs. Maryland	61.0%
11/1	at Rutgers	55.6%
11/8	at Purdue	52.1%
11/15	vs. Nebraska	56.2%
11/22	at Iowa	45.7%
11/29	vs. Minnesota	71.3%

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Projected Win%
10/25	at Illinois	45.5%
11/8	vs. Iowa	64.0%
11/15	vs. Ohio State	43.2%
11/22	at Nebraska	20.7%
11/29	at Wisconsin	28.7%

This may very well be a new and improved Minnesota team, but they have their work cut out for them from now until the end of the season.

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Projected Win%
11/1	at Iowa	31.2%
11/8	vs. Michigan	59.5%
11/15	at Notre Dame	19.1%
11/22	at Purdue	36.9%
11/29	vs. Illinois	63.7%

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Projected Win%
11/1	at Nebraska	16.4%
11/8	vs. Wisconsin	47.9%
11/22	vs. Northwestern	63.1%
11/29	at Indiana	36.0%

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Projected Win%
10/25	vs. Minnesota	54.5%
11/1	at Ohio State	13.0%
11/15	vs. Iowa	55.5%
11/22	vs. Penn State	58.8%
11/29	at Northwestern	36.3%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Projected Win%
10/25	at Penn State	61.3%
11/1	vs. Illinois	87.0%
11/8	at Michigan State	35.7%
11/15	at Minnesota	56.8%
11/22	vs. Indiana	85.7%
11/29	vs. Michigan	84.9%

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Projected Win%
10/25	vs. Michigan	82.6%
11/8	vs. Ohio State	64.3%
11/15	at Maryland	40.6%
11/22	vs. Rutgers	86.1%
11/29	at Penn State	58.6%

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Projected Win%
10/25	at Wisconsin	39.0%
11/1	at Penn State	52.8%
11/15	vs. Michigan State	59.4%
11/22	at Michigan	52.4%
11/29	vs. Rutgers	81.8%

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Projected Win%
10/25	at Michigan State	17.4%
11/1	vs. Indiana	64.4%
11/8	at Northwestern	40.5%
11/22	vs. Maryland	47.6%
11/29	at Ohio State	15.1%

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Projected Win%
10/25	vs. Ohio State	38.7%
11/1	vs. Maryland	47.2%
11/8	at Indiana	38.5%
11/15	vs. Temple	60.2%
11/22	at Illinois	41.2%
11/29	vs. Michigan State	41.4%

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Projected Win%
11/1	at Michigan	35.6%
11/8	vs. Penn State	61.5%
11/15	at Rutgers	41.9%
11/22	at Ohio State	14.3%
11/29	vs. Purdue	64.0%

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Projected Win%
10/25	at Nebraska	14.6%
11/1	vs. Wisconsin	44.4%
11/15	vs. Indiana	58.1%
11/22	at Michigan State	13.9%
11/29	at Maryland	18.2%