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BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 8

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Michigan State and Ohio State battle for the Big Ten East, while Nebraska looks to have the inside track on the Big Ten West, despite Minnesota still being 3-0.

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

For the second week in a row, there weren't any real conference championship-disrupting upsets. Minnesota narrowly avoided being upset by a suddenly decent looking Purdue team, but that was about the only thing that almost gave us pause.

Anyway, I planned on incorporating these win projections into the weekly power rankings, but that is already a lengthy piece, so this seemed to warrant it's own post. So here we go.

Post-Week 8 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.9% 13.8% 35.0% 34.9% 13.2%
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.5% 5.0% 17.6% 28.7% 27.2% 17.9% 3.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 25.7% 34.2% 25.8% 6.4% 0.7%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 16.0% 34.5% 29.3% 15.0% 2.9% 0.0%
Purdue 9.5% 33.3% 38.3% 17.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 4.6% 24.4% 37.0% 24.3% 9.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 4.3% 20.6% 35.2% 30.2% 8.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 6.0% 19.9% 35.9% 28.9% 8.6%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.8% 18.4% 33.6% 33.3% 10.7%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 6.5% 30.1% 32.5% 24.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Michigan 7.7% 27.3% 39.0% 21.2% 4.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 2.7% 14.6% 27.3% 31.4% 17.6% 5.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Indiana 4.5% 23.2% 36.1% 28.0% 7.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 38.8% 33.5% 12.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0%

As far as total wins go, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Nebraska still have shots at going 11-1, advancing to the Big Ten championship game, and vying for a spot in the college football playoff.

B1G West Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.9% 13.8% 34.9% 35.0% 13.2% 0.0%
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.5% 5.0% 17.6% 28.8% 27.1% 17.9% 3.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 25.7% 34.2% 25.8% 6.4% 0.7%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 16.1% 34.4% 29.3% 15.0% 2.9% 0.0%
Purdue 0.0% 9.5% 33.4% 38.3% 17.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 28.3% 39.1% 21.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 4.3% 20.5% 35.3% 30.2% 8.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 6.0% 19.9% 35.9% 28.9% 8.6%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.8% 18.4% 33.6% 33.3% 10.7%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 6.5% 30.1% 32.5% 24.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 7.7% 27.3% 39.0% 21.2% 4.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 7.4% 24.5% 34.9% 23.7% 8.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 4.5% 23.2% 36.1% 28.0% 7.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 13.2% 38.7% 33.6% 12.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

As for the conference portion of the schedule, those three teams are your favorites right now. Although, while Nebraska may be the current favorite by THOR+, the Big Ten West is still far from settled. Minnesota is currently still 3-0 in the conference, and Wisconsin and Iowa only have 1 loss. November should be very interesting in the West Division.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten East is mainly a two team race between Ohio State and Michigan State, but THOR+ is giving Maryland an outside chance, too.

And just for the hell of it, here are each team's mean, min, and max wins:

B1G West Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Nebraska 9.4 6 11 5.4 2 7
Wisconsin 7.4 4 10 4.4 1 7
Minnesota 8.0 6 11 5.0 3 8
Iowa 7.5 5 10 4.5 2 7
Purdue 4.7 3 7 2.7 1 5
Northwestern 5.1 3 8 3.9 2 6
Illinois 5.2 3 8 2.2 0 5
B1G East Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Ohio State 9.1 5 11 6.1 2 8
Michigan State 9.3 6 11 6.3 3 8
Maryland 7.9 5 10 4.9 2 7
Michigan 4.9 3 8 2.9 1 6
Penn State 6.7 4 10 3.0 1 6
Indiana 5.1 3 8 2.1 0 5
Rutgers 6.5 5 10 2.5 1 6

Finally, let's take a look at the rest of the season for each team.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date Iowa Projected Win%
11/1 vs. Northwestern 68.8%
11/8 at Minnesota 36.0%
11/15 at Illinois 44.5%
11/22 vs. Wisconsin 54.3%
11/28 vs. Nebraska 45.9%

November is going to be a grind for the Hawkeyes. THOR+ currently has them favored in only two of their final five games*, and three of those games are essentially considered coin flips right now. The numbers can and will change, but I really hope their best football is ahead of them.

* Yes, THOR+ currently has Illinois favored over Iowa in Champaign. Illinois' numbers still have a lot of Wes Lunt in them, though, so don't freak out. A whole lot can change in the next four weeks.

Nebraska

Date Nebraska Projected Win%
10/25 vs. Rutgers 85.4%
11/1 vs. Purdue 83.6%
11/15 at Wisconsin 43.8%
11/22 vs. Minnesota 79.3%
11/28 at Iowa 54.1%

Wisconsin

Date Wisconsin Projected Win%
10/25 vs. Maryland 61.0%
11/1 at Rutgers 55.6%
11/8 at Purdue 52.1%
11/15 vs. Nebraska 56.2%
11/22 at Iowa 45.7%
11/29 vs. Minnesota 71.3%

Minnesota

Date Minnesota Projected Win%
10/25 at Illinois 45.5%
11/8 vs. Iowa 64.0%
11/15 vs. Ohio State 43.2%
11/22 at Nebraska 20.7%
11/29 at Wisconsin 28.7%

This may very well be a new and improved Minnesota team, but they have their work cut out for them from now until the end of the season.

Northwestern

Date Northwestern Projected Win%
11/1 at Iowa 31.2%
11/8 vs. Michigan 59.5%
11/15 at Notre Dame 19.1%
11/22 at Purdue 36.9%
11/29 vs. Illinois 63.7%

Purdue

Date Purdue Projected Win%
11/1 at Nebraska 16.4%
11/8 vs. Wisconsin 47.9%
11/22 vs. Northwestern 63.1%
11/29 at Indiana 36.0%

Illinois

Date Illinois Projected Win%
10/25 vs. Minnesota 54.5%
11/1 at Ohio State 13.0%
11/15 vs. Iowa 55.5%
11/22 vs. Penn State 58.8%
11/29 at Northwestern 36.3%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date Ohio State Projected Win%
10/25 at Penn State 61.3%
11/1 vs. Illinois 87.0%
11/8 at Michigan State 35.7%
11/15 at Minnesota 56.8%
11/22 vs. Indiana 85.7%
11/29 vs. Michigan 84.9%

Michigan State

Date Michigan State Projected Win%
10/25 vs. Michigan 82.6%
11/8 vs. Ohio State 64.3%
11/15 at Maryland 40.6%
11/22 vs. Rutgers 86.1%
11/29 at Penn State 58.6%

Maryland

Date Maryland Projected Win%
10/25 at Wisconsin 39.0%
11/1 at Penn State 52.8%
11/15 vs. Michigan State 59.4%
11/22 at Michigan 52.4%
11/29 vs. Rutgers 81.8%

Michigan

Date Michigan Projected Win%
10/25 at Michigan State 17.4%
11/1 vs. Indiana 64.4%
11/8 at Northwestern 40.5%
11/22 vs. Maryland 47.6%
11/29 at Ohio State 15.1%

Penn State

Date Penn State Projected Win%
10/25 vs. Ohio State 38.7%
11/1 vs. Maryland 47.2%
11/8 at Indiana 38.5%
11/15 vs. Temple 60.2%
11/22 at Illinois 41.2%
11/29 vs. Michigan State 41.4%

Indiana

Date Indiana Projected Win%
11/1 at Michigan 35.6%
11/8 vs. Penn State 61.5%
11/15 at Rutgers 41.9%
11/22 at Ohio State 14.3%
11/29 vs. Purdue 64.0%

Rutgers

Date Rutgers Projected Win%
10/25 at Nebraska 14.6%
11/1 vs. Wisconsin 44.4%
11/15 vs. Indiana 58.1%
11/22 at Michigan State 13.9%
11/29 at Maryland 18.2%