Iowa Football: Predicting the Hawkeyes in 2024

We’re now just two weeks away from the first college football game back inside Kinnick Stadium and we’ve already gotten an in-person glimpse of this year’s version of your Iowa Hawkeyes. Fall is coming.

As we all wait in anticipation, wondering just what to expect from Iowa in 2024, The Pants is here to answer all your questions. We, of course, can see the future and thus have taken a peek to late November and are here to tell you all what happens this season. We will not be wrong. We have never been wrong before. We will never be wrong in the future.

So, how is this year about to play out? Well, our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook have set the over/under at 7.5 total wins for this team. It’s wrong. It’s a bad number. It’s too low.

That is, if you’re drinking that sweet, sweet Kool-Aid like we are. The Pants is calling for a 10-win season. As in, all but one of us is riding the hype train and the lone party pooper is expecting 9-3. So yeah, we’re ready to be hurt again.

[Note, our resident pessimist (@mattcabel) tried to throw in some nonsense but we stripped away his access before he could finish. Fear not, he’ll be back, but he wasn’t allowed near this beaut.]

Where does this optimism come from? Quite obviously, it’s the offense. Not in the sense that we are calling our shot for this team to be a an offensive juggernaut, but in the sense that we expect them to be competent in a way we haven’t seen in a few years. On average, we expect Iowa to score MORE than 25 points per game in 2024. It’s a year late to save Brian Ferentz’s job, but if they finish the drive to 325 we’re all pitching in to get that Tim Lester statue built on Melrose, right?

I mean, if they were to do it, that would be a ten point per game improvement over a year ago. Unless Phil Parker completely forgot everything he knows about football, that would naturally lead to a really strong finish. And The Pants is calling for only modest regression from the Iowa D, going from giving up fewer than 15 points per game a year ago to just over 16 points per game this year.

On the whole, we’re feeling pretty decent about Cade McNamara’s chances of staying healthy, with only one staffer calling for Brendan Sullivan to lead him in passing yards on the year. We also feel pretty good about his connection with Luke Lachey and the potential for the running game with Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams. On defense, Jay Higgins is going to be a dude and we expect another big year out of Sebastian Castro. Shocker.

Here’s a look at each of our individual predictions for Iowa in 2024-2025.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

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SirNicholas33

Wow - how nice is it going to be having a legitimate offensive coordinator? Just having competence in that role should bring Iowa’s offense up a couple of levels. There is a lot hinging on health, sure - Cade McNamara - but if they can get a year without big injuries, a healthy offense managed by Tim Lester should see Iowa get out of the rut they’ve been in for the last three seasons on that side of the ball.

Then with most of the personnel back from the last few years of title-caliber defenses, plus a manageable schedule? Iowa’s going to cook. Will they lose to Ohio State? Probably, yes. Will they drop a game they shouldn’t that has us all pissed off? Also probably, yes. Still, I think Iowa achieves competence on offense, stays mostly healthy, and despite a dumb loss to someone like UCLA, they land at 10-2. That puts Iowa in a great spot to participate in the expanded playoff system, and possibly hosting a game.

Regular Season Record: 10-2
Wins: lllinois State, Iowa State, Troy, at Minnesota, Washington, at Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, at Maryland, Nebraska
Losses: at Ohio State, at UCLA
PPG: 25.3
PPG Allowed: 13.5
Leading Passer: Cade McNamara
Leading Receiver: Luke Lachey
Leading Rusher: Kaleb Johnson
Leading Tackler: Jay Higgins
INT Leader: Sebastian Castro
Breakout Player: John Nestor

Bartt Pierce

This is going to be a common theme, but having anyone in the world other than Brian Ferentz as our offensive coordinator/QB coach will be an upgrade. I have looked over Tim Lester’s background, and I’m rather optimistic that it won’t feel like Iowa’s offense is trying to block 32 defenders on every play. Phil Parker is a genius. You can set your watch by Iowa’s defense being stout year after year. I am a bit scared/terrified about our kicking game. Drew Stevens struggled last year, and one of our three best players from last year is a Chicago Bear. LeVar Woods is as good as they come, but he can’t kick the ball.

Offensively, I think we have very good running backs and tight ends. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t know if we ever see a healthy Cade McNamara. The Northwestern transfer, Brendan Sullivan, is a ginormous upgrade over Deacon. Also, Marco Lainez can freaking scoot, so there could be a red zone package in there for the young fella. If Cade stays healthy, I think we make the expanded playoff. Defensively, we need to see an edge rusher step up. Our linebackers are the best in the college ranks.

Regular Season Record: 10-2
Wins: Illinois State, Iowa State, Troy, Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, UCLA, Wisconsin
Losses: Ohio State, Washington
PPG: 24.2
PPG Allowed: 16.1
Leading Passer: Cade McNamara
Leading Receiver: Luke Lachey
Leading Rusher: Kaleb Johnson
Leading Tackler: Jay Higgins
INT Leader: Sebastian Castro
Breakout Player: Aaron Graves

GlendaleHawk

Well, one thing’s for certain, we won’t have to listen to anyone talk about nepotism in regard to Iowa football anymore. We’ve got a shiny new offensive coordinator and, from the sounds of things, a shiny new playbook that Tim Lester (hopefully) spent time perfecting last year when he was in Green Bay.

For my part I’ve still got some concerns on the offensive side, primarily around whether or not Cade can stay healthy for a whole season (and shake off the rust that comes with playing ~8 games in 3 years). Phil Parker’s defense may carry them through the first couple of games, but I think the offense will be clicking by the time we bring Floyd back from his northern captivity (no matter who is under center) and we’ll end the year with all the trophies where they belong. The fact that Iowa has a pretty favorable schedule doesn’t hurt, but I’m feeling like there just may be another 10 win season in the offing (though I will not be surprised with 9-3 or even 8-4).

Regular Season Record: 10-2
Wins: Both ISUs, Troy, @Minnesota, Washington, Northwestern, Wisconsin, @UCLA, @Maryland, Nebraska
Losses: @OSU, @MSU
PPG: 24.5
PPG Allowed: 17.5
Leading Passer: Brendan Sullivan
Leading Receiver: Luke Lachey
Leading Rusher: Kaleb Johnson
Leading Tackler: Jay Higgins
INT Leader: Sebastian Castro
Breakout Player: Kaden Wetjen

GingerHawk

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’m really looking forward to seeing this offense under someone who isn’t yet on KF’s Christmas card list. Tim Lester has said all the right things and the optimistic angel on my shoulder is getting harder to ignore. I hate to say it, because I said it after 2022 and it came to pass, but it really feels like the offense can hardly get worse. Just give me a decent to average offense and I’m all in.

No worries whatsoever on defense given the number of returning contributor and because Phil Parker is still at the helm. Barring a catastrophic implosion or rash of injuries (knocks on every piece of nearby wood) Iowa’s defense should once again be one of the conferences best.

Forgive any lack of in depth analysis, but I’m on vacation and a Spotted Cow on the beach sounds mighty good right about now.

Regular Season Record: 9-3
Wins: Illinois State, Iowa State, Troy, @Minnesota, @Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, @UCLA, @Maryland
Losses: @Ohio State, Washington, Nebraska
PPG: 24.999
PPG Allowed: 17.5
Leading Passer: Cade McNamara
Leading Receiver: Luke Lachey
Leading Rusher: Leshon Williams
Leading Tackler: Jay Higgins
INT Leader: Xavier Nwankpa
Breakout Player: Jeremiah Pittman

MattReisener

The 2024 season may finally help Iowa fans answer the question of whether the blame for the Hawkeyes’ atrocious offense rested with former offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz or with his father. Tim Lester’s offense doesn’t have to light the world on fire for the Hawkeyes to find success this season, and most fans would settle for mediocre offensive production after the last three years of drudgery. Keeping starting quarterback Cade McNamara healthy and finding a stable starting five along the offensive line will be critical this season, and the Hawkeyes will need a wide receiver other than Kaleb Brown to emerge as a consistent source of production. The Hawkeye defense, meanwhile, is as deep and talented in the back seven as any team in the country. The sole source of concern for Phil Parker’s unit lies on the defensive line, which lacks consistent pass rush production and could suffer from diminished depth in the interior.

Expect Iowa’s defense to continue to shine in 2024 and for Lester’s offense to show just enough improvement to give Hawkeye fans hope for a brighter future on that side of the ball. Iowa wins ten regular season games (including a statement win over last year’s national runner-up Washington), but loses a laugher at Ohio State and a head-scratcher against Wisconsin. At 10-2, Iowa’s chances of making the playoff may depend on whether the Hawkeyes pass the dreaded “eye test” and whether their offense is perceived as being strong enough to compete with college football’s elite programs.

Regular Season Record: 10-2
Wins: Illinois State, Iowa State, Troy, @Minnesota, Washington, @Michigan State, Northwestern, @UCLA, @Maryland
Losses: @Ohio State, Wisconsin
PPG: 25
PPG Allowed: 15
Leading Passer: Cade McNamara
Leading Receiver: Kaleb Brown
Leading Rusher: Kaleb Johnson
Leading Tackler: Jay Higgins
INT Leader: Sebastian Castro
Breakout Player: Aaron Graves

JPinIC

I am really nervous. Not about the season, but about how optimistic I’ve become. I’ve spent way too much time this offseason listening to and watching everything I can get my hands on regarding Tim Lester, his philosophy, the scheme he’s trying to implement and how he hopes to attack defenses and I have become far too excited. It’s a genuine problem.

That’s compounded by the fact this schedule is not meaningfully more difficult than the one Iowa tallied ten wins against a year ago with the worst offense in the country. I think the true baseline here is a 9-3 season with losses at Ohio State and then some mix of Iowa State, Washington, Wisconsin and Nebraska. But those are four games played at home (I’m not counting OSU here because that’s an L you just hope to look good in) where going 3-1 or even 4-0 is not outside the realm of possibility.

So I find myself erring on the side of optimism and saying 10-2 for the year and trying to stop myself from talking too much about a potential run at the first 12-team playoff.

I need a cold shower.

Regular Season Record: 10-2
Wins: Illinois State, Iowa State, Troy, @Minnesota, Washington, @Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, @UCLA, @Maryland
Losses: @Ohio State, Nebraska
PPG: 27.4
PPG Allowed: 16.9
Leading Passer: Cade McNamara
Leading Receiver: Kaleb Brown
Leading Rusher: Kaleb Johnson
Leading Tackler: Jay Higgins
INT Leader: Sebastian Castro
Breakout Player: Jarriett Buie

Jerry Scherwin

Ladies and Gentleman, this is it. This HAS to be it. This HAS to be the year that Iowa solidifies themselves as a perennial new playoff contender. It used to be that we as a fanbase and collective would be looking for one of those special Orange Bowl/Rose Bowl seasons every 2-3 years after Kirk Ferentz’s recruits had time to develop inside the program. But that’s gone to the wayside. Things move faster. Development moves faster. Money flows faster. But the foundation of the Ferentz Iowa Hawkeye program is sound and should, in theory, push Iowa into the playoff every 2-3 years (at MINIMUM) now. This team, right now as currently constructed, has enough to be 10-2 and with a slightly better offense than I’m predicting now, can be 11-1. I’m not even here demanding AVERAGE anymore. If Tim Lester and whatever quarterback ends up being the guy can muster 17 points of offensive scoring, Phil Parker, LeVar Woods and their line of dominant players will do the rest. The proof is just in the pudding at this point. Lean on the defense and special teams, control the damn football and clock, run the football behind a solidified line that by all accounts is 6-7 guys deep for the first time in a LONG time and just don’t look like your coordinated by Mr. Magoo and Iowa should be playing in the first ever 12-team playoff ever and yet another 10-win season (worst case).

You just gotta believe!

Regular Season Record: 11-1
Wins: Illinois State, Iowa State, Troy, @Minnesota, Washington, @Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, @UCLA, @Maryland
Losses: @Ohio State
PPG: 22.5
PPG Allowed: 9.5
Leading Passer: Brendan Sullivan
Leading Receiver: Kaleb Brown
Leading Rusher: Kaleb Johnson
Leading Tackler: Jay Higgins
INT Leader: X GONNA GIVE IT TO YA
Breakout Player: Aaron Graves

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So that’s how we have the year playing out. How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s here those predictions in the comments before we put out the consensus predictions from the fanbase in this week’s Reacts Poll.