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Previewing Iowa/Maryland and Terp statistics

The Hawkeyes look to move back to .500 in conference

NCAA Basketball: Maryland at Iowa Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

The Iowa Hawkeyes (11-7, 3-4) return to Carver-Hawkeye Arena to take on a meandering Maryland Terrapins (11-8, 3-5) squad. Neither are listed among the 87 teams on Bracket Matrix (68 consensus teams + 19 at large) so if either team is going to make a run at the NCAA Tournament, tonight is imperative.

Iowa has won the last 4 matchups and owns a 7-5 lead since the Terps joined the conference for the 2014-15 season. 6 of Iowa’s 7 victories have been of the double-digit variety. The Hawks are 4-2 at home, with the last loss leading to Gary Dolphin’s suspension. Wild times.


Can the Hawkeyes stay out of foul trouble?

Iowa struggled with foul trouble against Purdue, with Owen Freeman, Ben Krikke, and Ladji Dembele combining for 11 fouls. Even Brauns - who figures to take over the minutes occupied by an injured Dembele - had 2 fouls in his 9 minutes. They’re going against Julian Reese, who draws 6.5 fouls/40 minutes and ranks 9th in the conference in Big Ten-only games. His free throw rate is behind just Tyler Wahl & Zach Edey. It’s an important cog in the Terps’ offense, as they rank 12th in the country in scoring 24.5% of their points from the free throw line.

Historically under Fran, Iowa has excelled in not fouling. This season is a little different, as their defensive free throw rate ranks the lowest in his tenure, at 95th in the country, per KenPom. It’s a clear opportunity for Maryland tonight.

One area where Iowa need to find additional success is securing defensive rebounds, especially with big bodies like Krikke & Freeman occupying the court at the same time. With that being another key component of Maryland’s offense (33.7% offensive rebounding rate) Iowa cannot afford to let the Terps extend possessions and increase the likelihood of the Hawks fouling.

Can Tony Perkins continue his strong run of play?

Noted in the Purdue recap was Perkins averaging 16.8 points & 6.0 assists over the last nine games. He’s going against another excellent guard in Jahmir Young. Only Zach Edey is averaging more points. It seems like another occasion for Perk to rise to an occasion, with Young racking up a league-high 55 turnovers.

With Ben Krikke’s points regressing to the mean after a sensational start, Perkins emergence has been imperative to the Hawks success. Outdueling Young would be a good indicator for a Hawkeye win tonight and bode well for the upcoming stretch of games.


About the Terrapins

2024 averages: Team / Opponent

PPG: 70.2 / 63.8
RPG: 37.0 / 34.9
APG: 10.8 / 10.7
TOPG: 12.1 / 12.9
FG%: 41.6% / 40.4%
3P%: 28.3% / 33.8%

Coach:

Kevin Willard: 17 seasons, 2nd at Maryland
Record: 303-231 (.567), 33-21 (.611) at Maryland

Starters & 2023-24 stats:

Indiana’s projected starting lineup

Pos - # Name Yr, Ht, Wt PPG RPG APG FG% 3P% MPG Misc.
Pos - # Name Yr, Ht, Wt PPG RPG APG FG% 3P% MPG Misc.
G - #0 Xavier Johnson R Sr+, 6'3", 200 lbs 8.2 2.2 2.1 0.411 0.35 24.1
G - #32 Trey Galloway Sr, 6'5", 205 lbs 10.5 2.3 3.8 0.467 0.284 32.8 1,1 steals/game; .500 FT%
F - #4 Anthony Walker Sr+, 6'8", 215 lbs 6.4 3.1 0.8 0.5 0.154 15.6
F - #21 Mackenzie Mgbako Fr, 6'8", 217 lbs 10.9 4.3 1.4 0.406 0.329 24.1 .855 FT%
F - #5 Malik Reneau So, 6'9", 233 lbs 16.7 6.2 2.9 0.578 0.406 30.1 2.8 turnovers/game, 2.7 fouls/game

Season leaders:

PPG: Young 20.7, Reese 13.4
RPG: Reese 9.8, Scott 4.9
APG: Young 4.1, Harris-Smith 2.5
FG% (min 30 att): Reese 51.5%, Geronimo 45.2%
3P% (min 20 att): Scott 39.0%; Young 33.7%

Last 5 games:

L - v Michigan State, 61-59 (1/21)
L - at Northwestern, 72-69 (1/17)
W - at Illinois, 76-67 (1/14)
W - v Michigan, 64-57 (1/11)
L - at Minnesota, 65-62 (1/7)

2024 KenPom ($):

AdjEfficiency: +11.62 (68)
AdjOffense: 107.5 (171)
AdjDefense: 95.9 (17)
AdjTempo: 65.7 (299)

2023:
AdjEfficiency: +17.99 (23)
AdjOffense: 113.5 (36)
AdjDefense: 95.6 (32)
AdjTempo: 64.2 (326)

NET: 99 | Iowa: 52

Bart Torvik: 89 | 52
since 12/9: 59 | 42

Evan Miyakawa: 55 | 44