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College football is officially back! What’s that? You think we’re earl? No, no, no my friend - college football is back and it’s back this week! That’s right, we are IN week 0, which means we are hours and days away from college football on your TV and less than one week away from previewing the first Hawkeye football game of the 2023 season.
With such little precious time left until kickoff inside of Kinnick, it’s time to kick off our staff predictions for the year. If you thought the fanbase was feeling optimistic about the 2023 version of your Iowa Hawkeyes based on our preseason fan polling, you haven’t seen anything yet.
Our staff, on average, is calling for a 10-2 finish for this group and a return trip to Indianapolis as Big Ten West champs. Now, we should admit right off the top here there may be some selection bias. When you’re asking for opinions on things such as this, it tends to look a lot like the review section on Amazon - the fastest to the keyboard are the ones with the best and worst experience, or prediction, to write.
Even so, we didn’t get a single staffer calling for the Hawkeyes to win fewer than 9 games this year and nobody is thinking Iowa finishes lower than 2nd in the West. Beyond that, I’ve yet to find a single real life person who expects Iowa to win fewer than the 8 games called for by Vegas.
Alarm bells are going off in the news room (there is no news room). Cats are lying with dogs. Pigs are flying and hell has frozen over. To a person, optimism abounds this season.
Hold on, I need to go lower my prediction to account for all this optimism.
Anyway, here’s a look at our individual staff predictions for the 2023 season, as well as some fun hypothetical props for individual players and position groups this year. As a reminder here’s a look at some of the key lines from DraftKings Sportsbook this year.
Season win total o/u: 8
Odds for the West: +240
Odds for the Big Ten title: +1200
McNamara odds for the Heisman: +15000
JPinIC
Over multiple decades of Hawkeye fandom, it’s easy to become disenfranchised and skew your season outlooks to the pessimistic side. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t feel like every season had some sort of cap on it. Losses to Wisconsin, plus someone they shouldn’t (likely Northwestern) and a toss up to ISU regardless of how bad the Cyclones are. But the opposite is also true. There’s a floor that involves bowl eligibility and a win against someone they shouldn’t to counterbalance that bad loss.
This year feels a bit different to me, though. The schedule is a bit softer without OSU or Michigan and we saw Kirk and Co do something I never thought they could: commit to the portal and hit it out of the park. The defense is going to be the defense and instantly raise the floor to probably seven wins. The difference between Cade McNamara and Spencer Petras, in my view, is good for at least one more win. And I really struggle believing all the miserable injury luck a season ago carries over AND the offensive line sees no improvement.
All that comes together to put me over on the Vegas win total, which has risen to 8 from 7.5 earlier this offseason (hope you smashed that with me). I am expecting 9-3, but think if this team can stay healthy they really should be looking at 10-2. Brian squandered a world-class defense last year but I don’t think McNamara will let him totally throw it away this year. If they can find some magic in Madison or avoid the annual letdown game, I think they win the West.
Season Record Prediction: 9-3
Losses: @Penn State, @Wisconsin, @Nebraska
West Finish: 2nd
O/U 25 ppg: over - 29ppg
O/U 2,500 McNamara passing yards: over - 2,700
O/U 15 McNamara passing TDs: over - 17
O/U 1,000 Johnson rushing yards: over - 1,100
O/U 10 Johnson rushing TDs:
O/U 1,000 total WR receiving yards: over - 1,400
O/U 5 total WR receiving TDs: over - 7
O/U 5 DeJean INTs: under - 4
O/U 90 Jackson tackles: under - 85
Leading receiver by receptions: Lachey - 54
Leading receiver by yards: Lachey - 750
SirNicholas33
I have my guard all the way up this year. All the way.
Look - the pieces are there for a special season. Iowa is much better at quarterback. They have a good running back room. They have two fantastic tight ends in Erick All and Luke Lachey, plus some interesting players behind the top two. Everything out of Kid’s Day pointed to reasons for optimism with the receiving corps - it’s superior to last year’s group with the portal additions they made this offseason. The defense lost some important players, but they are still nearly as deep and talented as last year and has the making of a destructive defensive line. Just about every area that needed portal help got it, and with good players. The schedule is also pretty friendly despite visits to Penn State (early in the season; probably a good time to get them) and Wisconsin (I’m not sold on them yet with a new regime and new system).
But there are some legitimate hang ups for me. This all revolves around the offensive line, health, and the need to compensate for any possible drop off from the defense, even if only a small drop. Scott Dochterman opined that the offensive line was more competitive with the defensive line on Kid’s Day, which hasn’t been the case in recent years (sometimes the defense is ahead of the offense to an almost laughable level). That is a good start and cause for some cautious optimism. However, other reports indicated that pass blocking could be a problem, especially at right tackle where Daijon Parker is out, Gennings Dunker is playing out of position, and there’s no Kaydn Proctor to fall back on. On the health front, I hope guys are in bubble wrap. Mason Richman needed to be in bubble wrap yesterday. They need Parker to get healthy. Let’s not even contemplate a world in which Cade McNamara gets hurt. We flirted with it at Kid’s Day and that’s as close as I want to get to that. I think Deacon Hill is a good back-up and might be a dude (a big dude at that; he looks huge), but I’m not ready to test whether he can lead the troops in a real world situation. Let’s just not go there. And what if the defense has even the tiniest of tiny slippage from elite to just very, very good, but the offense - we haven’t mentioned Brian Ferentz yet - is still spinning out for one reason or another?
So, guard is up. It’s there for Iowa to take the West and I’m still going to be irrational and predict 10-2, but a few things need to click in place for me to lower my shields fully and start dreaming of bigger things.
Season Record Prediction: 10-2
Losses: @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin
West Finish: 1st
O/U 25 ppg: Over
O/U 2,500 McNamara passing yards: Over
O/U 15 McNamara passing TDs: Over
O/U 1,000 Johnson rushing yards: Over
O/U 10 Johnson rushing TDs: Under (these will be spread amongst the whole group, so under)
O/U 1,000 total WR receiving yards: Over
O/U 5 total WR receiving TDs: Over
O/U 5 DeJean INTs: Under
O/U 90 Jackson tackles: Over
Leading receiver by receptions: Luke Lachey
Leading receiver by yards: Erick All
GlendaleHawk
If you read my piece over the weekend I think it outlined my overall optimism for this season. That being said, recording predictions brings my inner-cynic back to the surface for a little bit, so here goes.
Iowa’s defense and special teams alone are worth 7 wins this season, especially with UM and tOSU not on the schedule. ISU is down, meaning I’m fairly confident that we head to Happy Valley at 3-0 (though I’m pretty sure we leave PA at 3-1). Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, and Illinois should be wins. The first two because, duh. Illinois because I don’t think that Bert’s defense is going to be anywhere near as good as it was last season, and arry Lunney haven’t quite got the offense dialed in yet, Purdue because they’ve got a new coach and a new system. There’s your bowl eligibility.
That leaves Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin, and I can see a world where Iowa is 4-0 in those games just as easily I can see them going 0-4. I don’t feel like Fleck is any closer to figuring out how to beat Iowa in Kinnick than he was two years ago and he can’t just give the ball to Mo Ibrahim and pray that he rows the boat to a win. Matt Rhule doesn’t have the horses to get Nebby all the way back in year 1, and I think Coop and the Boys can handle Fickell’s quasi-Air Raid in year 1. So I’m bullish on those games.
That leaves Michigan State, a team coming off a tough season with a coach who’s seat is likely starting to heat up. I do not have a good feel for what kind of team Mel Tucker is going to field going into year 4. He lost 21 players to the portal and added 18, including some guys from notable schools (Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, Florida State). I know the team will be up for Penn State, I just feel like this ends up being a letdown/hangover game regardless of the result in Happy Valley.
That was a lot of words to get to this, 10-2, Western Division champs and a ticket to Indy.
Season Record Prediction: 10-2
Losses: @ Penn State, Michigan State
West Finish: 1st
O/U 25 ppg: Over (but just barely, like 25.9 ppg)
O/U 2,500 McNamara passing yards: Over (~2750)
O/U 15 McNamara passing TDs: Push (20 total TDs, but I think at least 5 are rushing)
O/U 1,000 Johnson rushing yards: Over (might only be 1001, but I think he breaks through)
O/U 10 Johnson rushing TDs: Over (12+)
O/U 1,000 total WR receiving yards: Over (if the Under hits, BF needs to go regardless of the PPG average)
O/U 5 total WR receiving TDs: Over (See above statement regarding total WR receiving yards)
O/U 5 DeJean INTs: Under (Desmond King all over again)
O/U 90 Jackson tackles: Over
Leading receiver by receptions: Erick All (50+; once a safety blanket, always a safety blanket)
Leading receiver by yards: Luke Lachey (700+; TE targets split pretty evenly with All getting a few more catches, Lachey’s YPC will be higher)
GingerHawk
There is real excitement around the Hawks this year and for good reasons. The transfer portal was quietly good for Iowa and it all starts with the man under center. Let’s not bury the lede, this season’s success hinges on Cade McNamara’s performance as QB1. He’s a clear upgrade over Spencer Petras and that alone is worth a lot. This is not a knock against Petras, but he didn’t have the abilities needed to make a throw when the play broke down, or improvise and evade pressure. McNamara does.
With an offensive line that still has plenty to prove that skill set will be critical. He’ll have plenty of help with old teammate Erick All and Luke Lachey manning the tight end spots and a good corps of receivers. Add in a rising star running back in Kaleb Johnson and you’ve got the makings of a competent offense. While the defense has a few holes to fill it still looks to be mean as ever for the opposition. Add in a talented special teams unit and a competent offense is all you need to really make a push for a West division crown.
Iowa’s schedule sets up nicely for a championship run. They dodge the heaviest of heavyweights in Michigan and Ohio State, and get up and coming West challengers Illinois and Minnesota at home. They still have to travel to Penn State and Wisconsin, but until I see the air raid work at Wisconsin I’m not going to anoint the Badgers just yet. There’s always the threat of a loss none of us saw coming, it is football after all. But in this last year of the divisional split, I’m going with Iowa to represent in Indianapolis.
Season Record Prediction: 10-2
Losses: @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin
West Finish: 1st
O/U 25 ppg: Over
O/U 2,500 McNamara passing yards: Over
O/U 15 McNamara passing TDs: Over
O/U 1,000 Johnson rushing yards: Under (just barely)
O/U 10 Johnson rushing TDs: Under
O/U 1,000 total WR receiving yards: Over
O/U 5 total WR receiving TDs: Over
O/U 5 DeJean INTs: Under
O/U 90 Jackson tackles: Over
Leading receiver by receptions: Luke Lachey
Leading receiver by yards: Luke Lachey
Bartt Pierce
Dang, I am so torn. I’ve been writing for Black Heart Gold Pants since 2020. At times I am very optimistic, others, not so much. For a while in our weekly predictions I was purposely picking the Hawks to lose, and we rattled off quite a few wins to end 2020. I am 300% in on this year’s squad with a ginormous caveat. Cade Mac. If (big if) he stays healthy, we are going to Indy. With our defense, especially our defensive line, and special teams, if Brian Ferentz and George Barnett can get the offense to have a pulse, we could be really, really good. If our savior from Michigan remains dinged up or regresses, we go back to being less than one dimensional and misery sets in. No pressure there, offensive line.
Season Record Prediction: 10-2
Losses: @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin
West Finish: 1st
O/U 25 ppg: Over
O/U 2,500 McNamara passing yards: Under
O/U 15 McNamara passing TDs: Under
O/U 1,000 Johnson rushing yards: Over
O/U 10 Johnson rushing TDs: Under
O/U 1,000 total WR receiving yards: Under
O/U 5 total WR receiving TDs: Over
O/U 5 DeJean INTs: Under
O/U 90 Jackson tackles: Over
Leading receiver by receptions: Luke Lachey
Leading receiver by yards: Luke Lachey
So there you have it - book you hotels in Indy now. Let’s hear those individual predictions in the comments below!
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
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