If I seemed a little perturbed in the immediate aftermath of learning 8-seeded Iowa (19-13, 11-9) would play 9-seeded Auburn (20-12, 10-8) in Alabama, you’d be correct. But it’s nothing new for our Hawkeyes, as they played Cincinnati in Columbus, OH (as a 10 seed) and Temple Owls in New York City as a 7 and came out on top in both instances.

But it got me thinking just how often it happens for a location advantage to tilt heavily in matchups, especially among those in that 7-10 range. Data gathered came from sports-ref.com NCAA Tournament Matchup Finder, with data going back to 2002 & does not include 2021’s bubble tournament without fans. I chose 2002 because that was the first time pods were used to disentangle first- & second-round locations from their region. School location data was peeled from this Wikipedia page with all of it aggregated in this spreadsheet.

Breaking it down

(clarifying, when I write “higher seed” I am referring to the 9 over the 8, 10 over 7, etc.)

• 256 of 608 first round games (42%) had the higher seed closer. But not every distance instance of that is created equal.
• 23 games saw the higher seed play within 150 miles of their university (Auburn is ~138 miles from Birmingham). With 6 teams winning (26%). The smallest distance among those losing teams was 378 miles - 5-seeded UNLV playing in San Jose, CA against 12-seeded California. The greatest distance was 7-seeded Gonzaga playing a stone’s throw away from Davidson in Raleigh, NC - a 2000 mile difference.
• Expanding the radius to 400 miles, creates a 113-game sample. 28 lower seeds won for a 25% clip. Below are those numbers by seed:
  
  9 seeds: 1-2 inside 150 miles & 2-9 inside 400
  10 seeds: 1-3 & 5-9
  11 seeds: 2-1 & 10-8
  12 seeds: 2-2 & 4-6 (includes Richmond’s win over Iowa last year)
  13 seeds: 0-0 & 4-11
  14 seeds: 0-2 & 2-18
  15 seeds: 0-3 & 1-12
  16 seeds: 0-4 & 0-12

The real gripe definitely comes from Houston should Auburn beat the Hawkeyes. Just once has an 8/9 played closer to home than Auburn’s distance to Birmingham. Ohio State, the 1 seed, still beat Xavier in Lexington, KY but it took overtime.

My takeaway? Non-story. Go Hawks!

About the Tigers

Season averages: Team / Opponent

PPG: 72.7 / 67.1
RPG: 36.2 / 35.1
APG: 14.2 / 11.2
TOPG: 12.5 / 13.3
FG%: 44.1% / 40.7%
3P%: 31.4% / 28.8%

Coach:

Bruce Pearl: 9th season at Auburn, 19th overall
Record: 186-110 (.628) at Auburn, 417-209 (.666) overall

Statistical Leaders:

PPG: Johni Broome 14.0, Wendell Green 13.8
RPG: Broome 8.4 (2.9 ORPG), Jaylin Williams 4.8 (1.3 ORPG)
APG: Green 4.2, Williams 2.3
FG%: Dylan Cardwell 75.0% (2.4 FGA), Broome 52.9%
3P%: Chris Moore 40.9% (0.8 3PA), Lior Berman 40.7% (1.2 3PA)

Most likely starters ($) & 2022-23 stats:

G - #1 Wendell Green, Jr, 5’11”, 175 lbs: 13.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, 36.3% FG, 29.5% 3P, 28.1 MPG
G - #12 Zep Jasper, Grad, 6’1”, 190 lbs: 2.9 PPG, 32.7% FG, 28.8% 3P, 18.1 MPG
G - #22 Allen Flanigan, Sr, 6’6”, 220 lbs: 10.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 44.7% FG, 35.0% 3P, 26.7 MPG
F - #2 Jaylin Williams, Sr, 6’8”, 230 lbs: 11.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 ORPG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 SPG, 46.8% FG, 35.8% 3P, 28.1 MPG
F - #4 Johni Broome, So, 6’10” 235 lbs: 14.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.9 ORPG, 1.4 APG, 2.3 BPG, 52.9% FG, 27.6% 3P, 26.2 MPG

Off the bench:

#0 KD Johnson, Jr, 6’0”, 185 lbs: 21.8 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.1 SPG, 38.3% FG, 32.7% 3P, 31 games
#5 Chris Moore, Jr, 6’6”, 230 lbs: 14.9 MPG, 3.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 50.7% FG, 40.9% 3P, 29 games, 16 starts
#44 Dylan Cardwell, Jr, 6’11”, 256lbs: 13.7 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.4 BPG, 75.0% FG, 30 games, 1 start
#3 Trey Donaldson, Fr, 6’2”, 190 lbs: 10.5 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 34.3% FG, 29.6% 3P, 30 games, 0 starts

Additional subs:

#21 Yohan Traore, Fr, 6’10”, 225 lbs: 9.9 MPG, 2.2 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 40.0% FG, 34.8% 3P, 24 games, 0 starts
#24 Lior Berman, Sr, 6’4”, 215 lbs: 9.3 MPG, 2.3 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 44.2% FG, 40.7% 3P, 23 games, 0 starts

Last 5 games:

L - v Arkansas, 76-73 (SEC-T) (3/9)
W - v Tennessee, 79-70 (3/4)
L - at Alabama, 90-85 (OT) (3/1)
L - at Kentucky, 86-54 (2/25)
W - v Mississippi, 78-74 (2/22)

Q1 wins:

v 4 Tennessee, 79-70 (3/4)
v 21 Arkansas, 72-59 (1/7)
v 41 Northwestern, 43-42 (MTE) (11/23)

2023 KenPom: ($)
AdjEfficiency: +17.45 (29)
AdjOffense: 112.7 (48)
AdjDefense: 95.2 (29)
AdjTempo: 67.6 (165)

2022:

AdjEfficiency: +23.20 (12)
AdjOffense: 112.7 (25)
AdjDefense: 97.8 (80)
AdjTempo: 70.1 (42)

NET: 32

v Quad 1: 3-10
v Quad 2: 6-1
v Quad 3: 8-1
v Quad 4: 3-0

Bart Torvik: 23
Since 1/1: 22

Evan Miyakawa: 16