The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Big Ten Tournament

A year ago at this time, it was largely inconceivable that the Iowa Hawkeyes would head into the NCAA Tournament as Big Ten Tournament champions. With just two games remaining in the regular season, the Hawkeyes were sitting at 21-8 overall and 11-7 in Big Ten conference play. It had been a very good season to-date, but despite a hot finish to the season, Iowa was not set to get a double-bye. Since 1998, only three teams had won the tournament coming in as lower than a 4-seed.

Making matters more daunting: this is Iowa and this was Fran McCaffery. The Hawkeyes hadn’t won the Big Ten Tournament in 16 years. They hadn’t even made it to Saturday of the tournament without being in the top-4 since 2005. Iowa was just 5-10 in Big Ten Tournament games under McCaffery heading into last year’s BTT.

But the Hawkeyes bucked all the trends. They made it four teams lower than a 4-seed to win the Big Ten Tournament as they claimed their third championship (and their second coming in lower than a 4) in school history. The Hawks won four games in four games, nearly topping the win total for McCaffery in the BTT over the prior ten tournaments combined. The run pushed Iowa into the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in America, having won nine of their final ten games entering the tourney. That didn’t end well, but it finally got one of the two major monkeys off Iowa and Fran’s back.

Now a year later, the Hawkeyes have been anything but hot down the stretch. With that coveted double-bye nearly in their grasp, the Hawkeyes have lost two of their last three and three of their last six games in Big Ten play. With only two more opportunities in front of them, Iowa needs to channel their inner 2022 and catch fire down the stretch to revive their hopes of another BTT run, and ultimately taking a stab at the other monkey on the back: a return to the Sweet Sixteen.

The Situation

The Hawkeyes enter the final week of the regular season at 18-11 overall and 10-8 in the Big Ten. That puts them squarely in the muck that is the middle of the conference standings. Behind top-seeded Purdue, which would clinch the regular season title with their next win, there are eight teams sitting within a game and a half of each other. That includes a four-way tie for second place at 11-7 with three more teams sitting at 10-8. Then you have MSU a half game back at 10-7 with an extra game to be played this week.

Image via ESPN.

There are four games this final week featuring two teams in that cluster. Which is to say, the potential outcomes for tournament seeding vary incredibly.

For Iowa, they head to Bloomington tonight to take on the Indiana Hoosiers in the first of those four key matchups. Assembly Hall is a tough place to play and Iowa’s road struggles have been well chronicled. A loss all but kills Iowa’s hopes of a double bye. A win may well put them in the driver’s seat.

The Hawkeyes then close out the regular season with a home matchup against a surging Nebraska team that comes into the final week having won four straight and five of their last six games.

The Scenarios

There are really smart people in this world. This writer is not one of them. But on occasion, I do find myself with extra time on my hands and an unhealthy relationship with Iowa athletics. So, I’ve run through what I believe to be every reasonable scenario for the 14 remaining Big Ten games this week using the beautiful tool over at Mred’s bball.notnothing.net.

According to our friends at Google, 14 games means there are 16,384 possible scenarios to come in those games. And while teams like Minnesota are locked into their seed at this point, the cluster at the top and the remaining matchups means literally every game will impact the seeding. So we’re going to go with our best assumptions of reality, understanding that nothing seems to make sense in college basketball and we will probably be wrong.

Mred runs a base case using Sagarin’s projected outcomes. That has Iowa losing at IU tonight but winning the season finale against the Huskers. The end result is a 7-seed, wherein the Hawkeyes face 10-seed Wisconsin in their first BTT game with the winner taking on 2-seed Maryland (which just seems wild) in the quarterfinal on Friday. Here’s the full base case.

Image via bball.notnothing.net

And here’s the full standings generated from that base case.

1. Purdue (15 - 5)
2. Maryland (13 - 7) Above Indiana based on head-to-head record (1-0).
3. Indiana (13 - 7) Below Maryland based on head-to-head record (0-1).
4. Rutgers (12 - 8) Above N’western based on head-to-head record (2-0).
5. N’western (12 - 8) Below Rutgers based on head-to-head record (0-2).
6. Mich St (11 - 8)
7. Iowa (11 - 9) Above Illinois and Michigan based on round-robin record (2-0).
8. Illinois (11 - 9) Above Michigan and below Iowa based on round-robin record (1-1).
9. Michigan (11 - 9) Below Iowa and Illinois based on round-robin record (0-2).
10. Wisconsin (9 - 11)
11. Nebraska (8 - 12) Above Penn St based on winning percentage against #4 teams [N’western and Rutgers] (1-1).
12. Penn St (8 - 12) Below Nebraska based on winning percentage against #4 teams [N’western and Rutgers] (0-3).
13. Ohio St (4 - 16)
14. Minnesota (1 - 18)

You can see from the base case here, Iowa either needs to win both final games or have the THREE teams projected to finish 12-8 (or 11-8 in the case of Michigan State) all lose another game they aren’t expected to if the Hawkeyes want that double bye. That gets more complicated by the fact that Northwestern and Rutgers face off in their season finale. Meaning, for all three to take a loss this week, Rutgers would need to lose at Minnesota on Thursday night. Hawkeye fans should also be rooting for Nebraska to win their home finale against MSU tonight to avoid needing the Spartans to drop a home game in their finale.

IF those things happen, here’s an updated look at the scenario.

Image via bball.notnothing.net

Focusing just on that cluster at the ”top”, the standings would thus be:

2. Maryland (13 - 7) Above Indiana based on head-to-head record (1-0).
3. Indiana (13 - 7) Below Maryland based on head-to-head record (0-1).
4. Iowa (11 - 9) Above Illinois, Michigan, Rutgers, and N’western based on round-robin record (5-1).
5. Michigan (11 - 9) With Illinois, above Rutgers and N’western and below Iowa based on round-robin record (3-2). Above Illinois based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Indiana and Maryland] (1-3).
6. Illinois (11 - 9) With Michigan, above Rutgers and N’western and below Iowa based on round-robin record (3-2). Below Michigan based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Indiana and Maryland] (0-3).
7. Rutgers (11 - 9) Above N’western and below Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan based on round-robin record (2-4).
8. N’western (11 - 9) Below Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, and Rutgers based on round-robin record (2-6).
9. Mich St (10 - 9)*

*Note that Michigan State’s cancelled game against Minnesota ultimately costs them a seed line here. It doesn’t impact Iowa, but if that game were made up and MSU won (as they would be expected to), the seedings would have been: 4. Iowa 5. Illinois 6. Michigan 7. Rutgers 8. MSU 9. Northwestern.

There is one other scenario that gets the Hawkeyes a double bye which is not addressed above. That is a combination of losses from MSU, Northwestern and Rutgers plus a collapse by Maryland. The Terps enter the week at 11-7 in conference play and tied for second place. But they close out the regular season with a pair of losable road trips, first to Ohio State (where Illinois just fell) and then to Penn State (where the Nittany Lions are 12-3 on the season and will be playing for their NCAA Tournament lives). IF Maryland drops both of those games, the Hawkeyes earn the 4 seed if any of the following happen:

1. MSU loses a game AND Northwestern loses to both Penn State and Rutgers
2. MSU loses a game AND Rutgers loses either of their remaining games
3. Rutgers loses to Minnesota AND beats Northwestern

The various seeds outside the top-4 vary quite a bit based on those outcomes, but all result in Iowa as the 4-seed and a double bye.

Given the above, you can see there is actually quite a bit of upside for Iowa if other teams flounder. If, for example, scenario three above plays out AND MSU loses a game down the stretch, your Iowa Hawkeyes are looking at a 3 seed even with a loss at IU tonight. Win tonight and that same scenario gets Iowa the 2 seed.

Winning, as they say, cures all. That holds with tournament seeding. Even without loads of help from other teams, winning both games this week puts the Hawkeyes in a virtual lock for the double bye. Using our base case from before, which is based on Sagarin’s predictive rankings, the Hawkeyes end up with the 3 seed if nothing changes save for them winning both of their remaining games.

The only scenario which I’ve been able to come up with where the Hawkeyes DON’T earn the double bye despite winning their final two games is the following:

1. Northwestern beats Penn State and Rutgers
2. Michigan beats Illinois and Indiana
3. Maryland beats Ohio State and Penn State

It’s not a likely outcome, but in a year as crazy as this one has been, all things are possible.

The Rundown

While we have not run through all 16,384 gam-by-game scenarios here, we have touched on quite a few. So just to recap, the Hawkeyes could well finish as high as the 2 seed come Big Ten Tournament time despite shooting themselves in the foot at Wisconsin just under a week ago. They could also finish as low as the 11 seed if they lose both remaining games and a few other games break the right (or wrong?) way.

The most likely outcome, based on the predictive models, is for the Hawkeyes to finish in the 7 spot. That assumes a loss tonight at Indiana (only a 29% chance of winning per KenPom) and a win in the season finale against Nebraska (77% chance per KenPom). Here’s a breakdown of the scenarios that lead to each potential seed for the Hawkeyes.

2-Seed Scenarios

Dependent on the Hawkeyes winning at Indiana AND vs Nebraska plus:

• Northwestern loses vs Penn State OR vs Rutgers
  AND
• Maryland loses at Ohio State OR at Penn State
  AND
• Michigan loses at Illinois OR at Indiana

3-Seed Scenarios

Iowa wins both remaining games AND:

• Northwestern loses vs Penn State OR vs Rutgers
  AND
• Maryland loses at Ohio State OR at Penn State
  OR
• Michigan loses at Illinois OR at Indiana

OR Iowa wins both games AND:

• Maryland loses at Ohio State OR at Penn State
  AND
  Northwestern beats Penn State AND wins at Rutgers

OR Iowa loses at Indiana and beats Nebraska AND:

• Indiana beats Michigan
  AND
• MSU loses at least one game
  AND
• Northwestern loses to Penn State AND at Rutgers
  AND
• Rutgers loses at Minnesota
  AND
• Maryland loses at Ohio State AND at Penn State

OR Iowa beats Indiana and loses to Nebraska AND:

• Michigan beats Indiana
  AND
• MSU loses at least one game
  AND
• Northwestern loses to Penn State AND at Rutgers
  AND
• Rutgers loses at Minnesota
  AND
• Maryland loses at Ohio State AND at Penn State

As you can see, if Iowa loses either of their final two matchups the 3 seed becomes exponentially less likely.

4-Seed Scenarios

If Iowa wins their final two games AND:

• Northwestern beats PSU AND wins at Rutgers
  AND
• Michigan loses at Illinois OR at Indiana
  AND
• Maryland wins at Ohio State AND at Penn State

OR Iowa loses to Indiana and beats Nebraska AND:

• Northwestern loses to Penn State AND at Rutgers
  AND
• Michigan loses at Illinois AND at Indiana
  AND
• Michigan State loses at Nebraska OR vs Ohio State
  AND

Either:

• Maryland loses at Ohio State AND at Penn State

OR

• Maryland loses at Ohio State OR at Penn State
  AND
• Rutgers loses at Minnesota AND vs Northwestern

OR Iowa wins at Indiana and loses to Nebraska AND:

• Michigan State loses at Nebraska OR vs Ohio State
  AND
• Northwestern loses to Penn State AND at Rutgers
  AND
• Rutgers loses at Minnesota
  AND
• Illinois beats Michigan

The scenarios are not endless, but they are numerous. Put simply, a win tonight at Indiana opens many doors for the Hawkeyes. A loss closes a few and the scenarios for reaching the double bye become much more far-fetched.