The Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0) have their first road contest of the season against the #8 Creighton Blue Jays (2-0). The Blue Jays are looking to repeat an impressive 2023 campaign which saw them reach the Elite Eight for the second time in program history (first post-war). They presently sport a top 20 offense and defense, according to KenPom, primarily around locking down the paint and crushing it from deep three.

More thoughts below after we hit some Creighton stats.

About the Blue Jays

2023 averages: Team / Opponent

PPG: 76.4 / 68.4
RPG: 37.0 / 33.2
APG: 15.7 / 11.9
TOPG: 11.6 / 9.7
FG%: 46.9% / 42.2%
3P%: 35.4% / 33.6%

Coach:

Greg McDermott: 14 seasons at Creighton, 23 overall
Record: 302-150 (.668) at Creighton, 451-281 (.616)

Most likely starters & 2022-23 stats:

(Starting lineup in each of their games)

Last 5 games:

W - v North Dakota St., 89-60 (11/11)
W - v Florida A&M, 105-54 (11/7)
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L - v San Diego St., 57-56 (3/26)
W - v Princeton, 86-75 (3/24)
W - v Baylor, 85-76 (3/19)

2024 KenPom ($):

AdjEfficiency: +23.92 (8)
AdjOffense: 116.1 (7)
AdjDefense: 92.1 (20)
AdjTempo: 68.9 (277)

2023:
AdjEfficiency: +21.83 (12)
AdjOffense: 115.0 (23)
AdjDefense: 93.2 (14)
AdjTempo: 67.8 (143)

NET: N/A

Bart Torvik: 5

Evan Miyakawa: 4

Can the Hawkeyes generate enough turnovers?

Through two games, the biggest opportunity which exists against Creighton’s insane offense - 71.1% eFG, 43.6% offensive rebounding rate - looks like their turnover rate which ranks 96th in the nation. Four of their starters have turnover rates above 18% (Ryan Kalkbrenner has just 1 on the season) which could allow for Iowa to take advantage as they’ve forced their two opponents into 35 turnovers, including 18 steals. Iowa’s turned those turnovers into 51 points.

Considering the size down low in Kalkbrenner, strong start from Trey Alexander (20.5 points / 4.5 assists), and the Blue Jays ability to put the ball through the hoop, turning them over seems like the best path for Iowa to get a win - even if it remains unlikely.

Who steps up?

Facing a top 10 team like Creighton is a no-lose situation for Iowa. They’re not expected to win as 9.5-point underdogs so whatever the Hawks show offers a building block for the young season.

Ben Krikke has been good, making 13/23 shots and drawing 6.4 fouls/40 minutes, but will be tested on the boards. His 14.5% offensive rebounding rate is very likely to decline as he gives up 4 inches in his own matchup. However, as a little more of a stretchy 5, he may bring Kalkbrenner out of the paint and allow some other guys to do the dirty work.

Creighton has also been excellent in running three pointers off their mark, allowing just 16.9% of opponent shots from deep. Will Iowa be able to generate those looks and convert on them? Payton Sandfort has jumpstarted the Hawkeye offense on multiple occasions and will be asked to do it again this year.

And simply put...what do the freshmen look like? Brock Harding was an utter delight in two games but much of his flair has been done with the game well in hand. Can he positively impact the game or do turnovers (he leads the team with 5 right now) send him back to the bench?

The good thing about basketball is that one game does not a season make. How Iowa plays tonight can portend to some positive things even if they’re unable to come away with the win.