I’m going to be publishing my ponks this week in waves because I need to get them to print in time for me to take a victory lap against Nebraska.
That felt good. Let’s check in on our Facebook comments:
Now I feel even better.
Anyways, I ended up 2-0-1 thanks to Illinois boatracing Wyoming in a result I would very much take from our beloved Hawkeyes on Saturday because ya boy Bret got his hogs moving up front to the tune of 6.3 yards/carry. Thankfully they stopped 13 yards shy to keep me from losing my full unit. This, of course, was after Nebraska
whittling Whippling away another fourth quarter lead in hilarious fashion. Sure, blame the onside kick but there was a laundry list of issues the Cornballs (credit: HeavyMetalLawyer) had throughout Saturday’s game on the Emerald Isle.
1-0-0 ATS (+1u)
1-0 ML (+3.5u)
0-0-1 O/U (0u)
All* lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 1 Lines
- Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 | -165 at Purdue Boilermakers +140 | O/U 53
- New Mexico State Aggies +36.5 | N/A at Minnesota Golden Gophers N/A | O/U 52.5
Where I want to begin is with my biases: anti-Penn State and pro-Purdue. I described both of those last week, thank you for reading. Now the ideal state would be we see Purdue beat PSU and put both season win total bets on the right trajectory. But stats are getting in the way of a good time and, while the Boilers are 8-4-1 ATS as home dogs under Brohm, they’re just 6-6 straight up. We’ll take the points. Purdue +3.5 (1.1u to win 1)
I don’t like anything about the Minnesota game.
- Western Michigan Broncos +22 | +1100 at Michigan State Spartans -2100 | O/U 54.5
- Illinois Fighting Illini +2 | +110 at Indiana Hoosiers -130 | O/U 46
22 isn’t a particularly fun number to lay but the Spartans have faced their counterparts from Kalamazoo eight times since 1995, covering the spread in 5 games. Two of WMU’s covers came not in East Lansing. MSU -22 (1.1u to win 1)
Indiana is 8-2 ATS as home favorites. The over is 2-8 in those games. I don’t want to bet against Bert (this is a very dumb blind spot) so I’m just going UNDER 46 (1.1u to win 1).
- Colorado State Rams +30.5 | +1800 at Michigan Wolverines -10,000 | O/U 60.5
- South Dakota State Jackrabbits +14 | N/A at Iowa Hawkeyes N/A | O/U 44.5
- Buffalo Bulls +24 | +1200 at Maryland Terrapins -2400 | O/U 65
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights +7 | +222 at Boston College Eagles -284 | O/U 48
- North Dakota Fighting Hawks +23 | N/A at Nebraska Cornhuskers N/A | O/U 51.5
- Illinois State Redbirds +35 | N/A at Wisconsin Badgers N/A | O/U 40
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish +16 | +575 at Ohio State Buckeyes -800 | O/U 59
I’m going to rerun this column with updated picks for Saturday’s games.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
*Rutgers lines not available on DraftKings due to New Jersey law
Friday PM update: I have returned as I lick my wounds from the Purdue loss and eke through these tight night games. Not an ideal Friday!
One of three shining moments from the Cornhuskers’ 2021 season was rolling up a 50-piece on Fordham in Week 1 after a Week 0 loss. The question will be whether there’s still enough steam after the 10-hour flight from Dublin to blow off on North Dakota. That’s why I’m going with OVER 51.5 because the jetlag could impact both the offense and the defense.
Buffalo was one of the worst teams against the spread last season after Lance Leipold left for Kansas over the summer. Their offense averaged 29 points, though, similar to Maryland’s. With a full offseason, Buffalo will be able to keep up with one of the Big Ten’s worst defenses. BUFFALO +24
I don’t really emotionally hedge but genuinely think Iowa fans are being way too down on the prospects for tomorrow. While I think it might take a few drives for Iowa to get their sealegs, I expect the depth in the trenches to be too much for the Jackrabbits. IOWA -14
It’s genuinely shocking to see one traditional power favored over another by 17 points but Ohio State brings back a ton on offense and I’m not sure they can be stopped. OSU -17
Open Future Bets:
- Northwestern OVER 4 - 1u to win 1
- Nebraska UNDER 7.5 - 1.1u to win 1
- Penn State UNDER 8.5 - 1.15u to win 1
- Purdue OVER 7.5 - 1u to win 1.2
And there you have it. With two years of PONKS under my belt come years of wisdom by staying on the straight and narrow with tracking, predicting the season, and not being afraid of the obvious.
I’m sure there will be more to come but let’s enjoy this season - it’s sure to be a great one...
Unless my Iowa prediction comes through.