The Pants Predicts: The Iowa Hawkeyes in 2022

College football is back! Well, almost back. And with the Hawkeyes set to take the field in just over a week for their season opener in Kinnick against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, it’s time for our staff to do as we’ve asked all of you to do over the last week and put our own predictions on paper to be laughed at come season’s end.

On the whole, The Pants is modestly optimistic about this season. Or at least moreso than the wise guys in Vegas. The DraftKings Sportsbook has the season long win total for Iowa set at 7.5. The Pants is collectively taking the over on that and doing so by a full game. On average, we’re predicting the Hawkeyes to finish the year with 8.5 wins and 3.5 losses. That’s pretty well in line with the community as 31% of you voted for Iowa to finish 8-4 with another 30% coming in at 9-3.

You can see each individual season prediction below, but in total, seven of ten staffers responding are taking the over. Both John and SirNicholas are riding the optimism train and have called for not only double digit wins, but also a return trip to Indianapolis. Meanwhile, BoilerHawk, Thad and Bizarro Max are more pessimistic. Their the three taking the under, each expecting a 7-5 season.

That would likely put the Hawkeyes somewhere between 3rd and 4th in the Big Ten West at season’s end. That’s slightly below the implied finish from Vegas. The DraftKings Sportsbook gives Iowa the third best odds to win the West at +400. That’s behind Nebraska at +360 (we’re still exploring ways to short this - stay tuned to BoilerHawks Preseason Ponks!) and Wisconsin at +180. Collectively, we’re likely to take those odds for the Hawks as we’re expecting a finish of 2.4, or 2nd, on average.

Here’s a look at each of the staff’s individual thoughts on this season.

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JPinIC

To me, this season has all the makings of a traditional Kirk Ferentz Iowa football season. The defense is poised to be, as hoops coach Fran McCaffery would say, phenomenal. Like, even more phenomenal than they were a season ago when they were 13th nationally in scoring defense giving up fewer than 20 points per game. But as good as the defense is expected to be, the offense is.... not. I’m more optimistic than most in that I expect offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz to lean on the run game more heavily. The offensive line should be slightly better than a season ago (which shouldn’t be hard) and thus I expect the Williamses plus the pair of freshmen out of the backfield to keep the Hawkeyes out of some of the third and long situations they so often found themselves in a year ago.

Despite the improvements, the schedule is much more difficult with Michigan coming to Kinnick for a rematch from last year’s Big Ten Championship Game and the Hawkeyes travelling to Columbus to take on Ohio State. I think the Hawkeyes avenge the loss to the Wolverines and manage to clip Wisconsin, but in a reversal from a season ago they find ways to stub their toes against Northwestern and end long streaks against rivals Iowa State and Nebraska in a season that leaves fans frustrated and disappointed despite a solid 8-4 record.

Overall Record: 8-4

Losses to: Iowa State, @Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska

West Finish: 2nd

Offensive MVP: Leshon Williams

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Kaleb Johnson

Bartt Pierce

If Iowa makes it back to Indy for the B1G Championship game this year, the Hawks had an extremely successful season. Iowa faces a daunting schedule this year with games against both Michigan and Ohio State. So much of what Iowa does will be dependent on quarterback play. If Spencer Petras makes a jump, the Hawks could once again represent the B1G West in Indianapolis. I’m afraid the schedule will be a bit too much to overcome and most Hawk fans will be disappointed. If Iowa once again is terrific defensively and on special teams but doesn’t click offensively, Kirk and Brian Ferentz will take heat that hasn’t been seen around Camp Kinnick in quite some time. The Hawks have had Nebraska’s, Iowa State’s and Minnesota’s number lately. I could easily see us lose one of those games to finish with five losses. Yuck.

Overall Record: 8-4

Losses to: Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

West Finish: 3rd

Offensive MVP: Leshon Williams

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Lukas Van Ness (not exactly a sleeper, but he will be a STAR!) / Aaron Graves

John Kuster

The Hawkeyes were downright awful in a handful of important offensive metrics last year, yet they still represented the West in Indy with a 10-2 record.

Losing key contributors on the defensive end, like Matt Hankins and Dane Belton, won’t be easy to replace - but Iowa still returns 15 starters, and the ‘Dough Boys’ reloaded thanks to the addition of Xavier Nwankpa, who was recently listed under ESPN’s preseason true-freshman All-American team.

Shortly put: the defense is loaded with Sunday players at all levels of the field, and the offensive skill players are nothing to scoff at either. Considering where this team was last year, and how little they lost, I’ve been surprised to see most picking Iowa to finish somewhere between 4th and 2nd in the West.

If Spencer Petras can just play okay football, this team has a chance to do something special.

Overall Record: 11-1

Losses to: Ohio State

West Finish: 1st

Offensive MVP: Spencer Petras

Defensive MVP: Riley Moss

Sleeper: Kaleb Johnson

BoilerHawk

Kirk Ferentz once referenced the transition from 2004 to 2005 as reason to trust the intelligentsia regarding offensive development. Ken O’Keefe’s offense jumped from 24.3 points/game to 30.0. The team won three less games.

I see this season playing out similarly. The offense will be better, if only slightly, but the uptick in schedule alongside natural regression (many models had Iowa as just a 7-8 win team last year) will lead to the first season which has felt like everything which could go wrong does go wrong since 2012. Now I don’t necessarily see Iowa losing five straight games like below but I think the ones I have selected are the two great programs Iowa has had the lowest history of success against, the two similar teams who have Kirk’s number, and the one rivalry streak I think an opponent is most likely to break.

Overall Record: 7-5

Losses to: @ Ohio State, Northwestern, @ Purdue, Wisconsin, @ Minnesota

West Finish: 4th

Offensive MVP: Sam LaPorta

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Jacob Bostick

SirNicholas33

Full admission - I’ve followed very little going into the season. I adopted a similar plan to Ben post-Richmond hoops catastrophe - I scaled back on Iowa sports beyond the cursory look. So, Kids Day? Nah. Media Day? Sorry, can’t be bothered. I had professional teams with bad owners to freak out about instead.

But here we are, August 24 as I write this, and I’m slowly but surely gearing up. I’m cramming in articles and podcasts like I’m preparing for a test. This season seems so straight-forward to me - Iowa’s defense might be a top 5 unit nationally. They’re good at all three levels plus added 4/5-star talents in Aaron Graves and Xavier Nwankpa. They’re deep on that side of the ball. Special teams will be steady. This is the most Iowa Football Under Kirk Ferentz sentence ever, but one positive from open scrimmages is the improvement in Iowa’s kicking game between April and now. That’s important for a program that’s always willing to take 3 points when they’re inside the 25 and a drive inevitably dies.

And there’s the rub. The season comes down to the Brian-Spencer dynamic. I want to like Spencer Petras with his arm talent and the belief that he’s a student of the game, a film nut, all that. His teammates appear to like him. He appears to work hard on his craft and is doing whatever he can to get better. That’s great! But I’d rather not see the Manning Camp videos of him throwing 60-70 yard bombs. I don’t care about these camp/practice scenarios - I know he’s excellent in that environment. I have to see it in real situations. So far, the results have been...inconsistent. And I think I want to like Brian, though every fall is a letdown after the summer PR onslaught and the amazing filibuster podcasts. If there isn’t improvement from them (and the receivers can’t get healthy; that’s a real worry with just 10 days to go until South Dakota State), Iowa’s Big Ten East schedule jump from Indiana-Maryland-Penn State to Rutgers-Michigan-Ohio State might make this a given that Wisconsin walks into the title game again. However, if those two improve even marginally, Iowa manages the tight rope and makes it to Indianapolis again. I’m going with the optimist take today - Iowa to Indy!

Overall Record: 10-2

Losses to: @ Ohio State, @ Purdue

West Finish: 1st

Offensive MVP: Spencer Petras

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Xavier Nwankpa, to the extent a 5-star recruit can be a sleeper

tnels20

I think the 2022 team could be better than the 2021 team, but will finish with a worse record. Now, part of that is a more difficult schedule, but my biggest reason is just feeling like more of those 50/50 games will go against Iowa this season. Can I continue their torrid pace of forcing turnovers? Sure, but it is really hard to expect that to keep going. In 2005, Iowa forced eight fumbles, but only recovered one of them. Those types of things are the difference between 7-5 and 9-3.

I feel like we will see improvement from Petras as well as the offensive line. I feel confident that Iowa has several capable runnings backs and two outstanding tight ends. I’m scared to death about the lack of depth at wide receiver. It is hard to imagine winning 9 games if Iowa is forced into heavy personnel 75%+ of 1st and 2nd downs.

The defense seems poised for another top 20 season and has an incredible stable built up ready to step in when called upon.

Overall Record: 7-5

Losses to: Iowa State, Michigan, @ Ohio St, Wisconsin, @ Minnesota

West Finish: 3rd

Offensive MVP: Sam LaPorta

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Luke Lachey and Ethan Hurkett

GingerHawk

Damn, John, I should have let you write the Optimist’s Guide last week. While I’m not quite that bullish on Iowa this year, in looking at this team and this schedule I just can’t see a serious drop off in terms of final record. There will be a bit of one, primarily due to the tough schedule, but getting some key rivals and West division foes at home should help.

Losses on the OL and questions around the receivers are strikes against this team, but the good news is that the parts of this team that are good are damn good. I predict the OL will come together nicely by the time Iowa gets into the thick of the division race while the two stud TE’s will give Petras some safety blanket options outside of the receivers.

I went back and forth between Michigan and Purdue as a loss but I think Kinnick at Night is the difference maker while Purdue continues its voodoo magic, Ohio State does Ohio State things, and this just seems like Minnesota’s year to break through in both the division and against Iowa.

Overall Record: 9-3

Losses to: @Ohio State, @Purdue, @Minnesota

West Finish: 2nd

Offensive MVP: Sam LaPorta

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Luke Lachey

MattReisener

The 2022 Iowa Hawkeyes will be a less chaotic version of last year’s squad: reliant on excellent defense to win games, but generating more of its points from traditional offensive drives rather than defensive or special teams touchdowns. The Hawkeye defense may force fewer turnovers in 2022, but could be just as strong by the end of the season due to the maturation of the defensive line. The offense should also improve thanks to greater depth/experience in the trenches, which will can lead to improvements in both the running and passing games. However, a difficult schedule featuring the East division’s strongest two teams (Ohio State and Michigan) and some potentially tricky divisional roads trips (Purdue and Minnesota) could make it difficult for Iowa to repeat as champions in the West. 8-4 would be the safer pick, but Iowa has outperformed my expectations the past handful of years, so I’m allowing myself to be optimistic.

Overall Record: 9-3

Losses to: @Ohio State, @Purdue, and either Michigan or Wisconsin

West Finish: 2nd

Offensive MVP: Sam LaPorta

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Gennings Dunker

BizarroMax

I was the unhappy harbinger of doom last year, though, in hindsight, my statistical speculations ultimately underestimated the Hawkeyes. But can that rabbit be pulled out of the hat for yet another season? On the one hand, enhanced tenure along the O-line and a (hopefully) less caffeinated Petras should lead to offensive improvement (indeed, it might be difficult to get worse, but let’s not tempt those fates). The defense will of course be, at a minimum, stout, and special teams should still be a net strength, even with the lamentable loss of Charlie Jones.

But the schedule is tougher this year and something deep in my brain stem is screaming out that these long winning streaks Iowa has over Iowa State, Minnesota, Illinois, and Nebraska must eventually come to an end. Those games have all been competitive over the last few years, surely, Iowa ha to find itself on the wrong side of one of them, right? I’m betting on red for no reason other than the wheel has come up black seven times in a row, though I recognize that this logic makes even less sense in football than it does in roulette. Tragically, the result is a really gross year of football where we get a few hollow victories but mostly eat a lot of crow from opposing fan bases that have been gleefully and mercilessly tormented by Iowa fans for the better part of a decade.

My VMP picks are a little odd here. The correct answer on both offense and defense is Tory Taylor. But I want to make it more fun, not go with an obvious pick, and throw out a bit of a hedge against my dire record prediction for the year. If Iowa has a better season than I expect, it’ll be because the Hawks field a serviceable offense fueled by a power run game that opens up passing opportunities. The RB honors will get split between the Williamses, but the team is thin at WR and a Ragaini or Bruce may have a chance to really shine. You might be tempted to think that would make the MVP Petras, but I could see Petras getting into a cadence with one dependable target, who goes up and gets balls even in double coverage.

And on defense I just didn’t want to make the easy pick of Jack Campbell. Riley Moss’s presence may redirect a lot of downfield traffic to the Harris/Roberts side of the field, giving them a chance to put up some gaudy numbers.

Overall Record: 7-5

Losses to: Iowa State, Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota, Nebraska

West Finish: 4th

Offensive MVP: Nico Ragaini

Defensive MVP: Jermari Harris

Sleeper: Arland Bruce IV

Kicker32

Straight talk time folks, I have no freaking clue what kind of carnival ride Captain Kirk is going to take us on this year. If Kirk throws us all on the Dizzy Dragons with Brian and Petras controlling the spinning mechanism in the middle, we’re all going to be walking out of the Black Friday game against Nebraska covered in vomit. On the other hand, If Kirk lets us ride Pharaoh’s Boat (particularly the one that was TAKEN FROM US at the West Point, Iowa Sweet Corn Festival) we will all just throw our hands in the air and bask in the glory that formulates when two sides of the football sway back and forth in perfect harmony.

On a more serious note, I’m pretty bullish on this team. The hawks are trotting out arguably their best defense skill wise since 2009 and this unit is deeper. I expect, as many of my pants peers, the running game to be vastly improved as well with improved albeit young line play and a more downhill style of play. If one of Jacob Bostic or Brody Brecht emerge on the outside to allow Iowa more space to pound the rock with Williams Bros Inc. and Kaleb Johnson, I think this is potentially a ten win team. I have them winning 9 games however because of the schedule. Ohio. St is going to give everybody problems, we will stub our toe in either West Lafayette or stinky Dinky Town and if the Michigan game is not a night game (screw you Big Noon Kickoff) I think they have us beat. Let us hope also that the dark wizard that resides in Evanston passes over us.

Overall Record: 9-3

Losses to: Michigan, @Minnesota (barf), @Ohio. State

West Finish: 2nd

Offensive MVP: Sam Laporta

Defensive MVP: Jack Campbell

Sleeper: Alec Wick (He’s got a great first name).

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That’s how we see things playing out this season. Be sure to comment below to let us know if you agree, disagree or have no clue at all! We’ll check back in on these as the season progresses and endlessly ridicule the misses.

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Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.