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Going nearly all in on over/unders this week

NCAA Football: Iowa at Minnesota Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

I asked for the tide to change a bit and it DID on a delightful cover from Rutgers on 4th and forever.

Maryland also remained a pumpkin, which is especially bad because it’s November and it’s turning into Christmas tree season. Shouts to Wisconsin/Iowa for still staying under despite a 50-yard Graham Mertz heave for 6 & another Mertz heave which went the other way.

  • Purdue at Illinois UNDER 44.5, -1.1u
  • Indiana at Ohio State OVER 61, +1u
  • Rutgers +10 at Michigan State, +1u
  • Wisconsin at Iowa UNDER 35, +1u
  • Nebraska at Michigan OVER 49.5, -1.1u
  • Penn State -10.5 vs Maryland, +1u

Last week: 4-2-0 (+1.8u)


14-14-1 ATS (-1.4u)
1-3 ML (+0.5u)
14-13-1 O/U (-0.3u)

29-30-2 Overall (-1.2u)

All* lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Week 12 Lines

The numbers say take Northwestern and the points (Purdue 1-4 ATS at home & 1-3 ATS as favorites this season). But I trust neither defense so let’s have some fun and go OVER 44.5

The “nobody believes in us” is so strong with Illinois right now. Chase Brown is dinged up after Bret Bielema did his best PJ Fleck impression to run him into the ground before the season ended. Add to it the departure of Biff Poggi, some potential look-ahead to OSU for Michigan, and maybe putting their thumb on the scales of the Big Ten race to prefer “not Iowa” in Indianapolis and I think Illinois might have a shot at the outright win here. But we’ll go Illinois +17 and, in two teams who are a combined 5-13-2 v. the over UNDER 41.5.

I just want to marvel at the Wisconsin/Nebraska line because imagine being SO BAD that you are a double-digit home dog to this Wisconsin team. It’s happened twice before, both Wisconsin covers (and overs) but both teams were honestly in different forms. I’m just gonna throw my hands up and go UNDER 41 as Nebraska is 1-5 v the over at home this season. (something is going to break though, as overs are 4-0 following a Wisconsin loss and 0-6 following a Nebraska loss)

Indiana is not a good football team and their head coach is a whiny prick. MSU -10.5

The over is 11-3-1 when Ohio State is on the road under Ryan Day. OVER 63

In four road games this season, it’s all over for Penn State. OVER 45

After 10 games of kvetching with two more on deck, seems silly for Iowa to be an underdog against a freaking backup QB. Iowa +110 and honestly, I just feel compelled to bet UNDER 32. Only so many times you get to bet lines that low.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.

*Rutgers lines not available on DraftKings due to New Jersey law

Open Future Bets (aka sending good money after bad):

  • Northwestern OVER 4 - 1u to win 1
  • Nebraska UNDER 7.5 - 1.1u to win 1
  • Penn State UNDER 8.5 - 1.15u to win 1
  • Purdue OVER 7.5 - 1u to win 1.2
  • Purdue WIN Big Ten - 0.5u to win 14
  • Michigan WIN Big Ten - 1u to win 6.5

  • Northwestern at Purdue OVER 44.5, 1.1u to win 1
  • Illinois +17.5 at Michigan, 1.1u to win 1
  • Illinois at Michigan UNDER 41.5, 1.1u to win 1
  • Wisconsin at Nebraska UNDER 41, 1.1u to win 1
  • Michigan State -10.5 vs Indiana, 1.1u to win 1
  • Ohio State at Maryland OVER 63, 1.1u to win 1
  • Penn State at Rutgers OVER 45, 1.1u to win 1
  • Iowa ML at Minnesota, 1u to win 1.1
  • Iowa at Minnesota UNDER 32, 1.1u to win 1