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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 4

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Are we approaching “fade me” territory?

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Kent State +23 at Iowa 0u
Kent State at Iowa over 55.5 -1.1u
Nebraska at Oklahoma over 62 -1.1u
Penn State -5 v Auburn +1u

Here’s something sad...ponks are 3-1 when I pick an under and 1-5 when I pick an over. aka in games I decide to ponk an over/under, the under is 8-2. Is there a lesson there? Probably not.

Anyways, Nebraska might be a bad Big Ten team but they are a Big Ten team, nonetheless. Oklahoma was dragged into the mud and took a blocked extra point back for a two point conversion.

I’m not gonna bet an Iowa over unless I think Iowa can get there themselves. The defense is that good.

Penn State is good.


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

I thought I wagered on Nebraska/Oklahoma over 39.5 at half and was lucky to find out that bet did not go through.

Vegas knows.

I don’t.

/facepalm

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand.

9/25, 11:00a - Bowling Green Falcons (+2835 | O/U 51) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-31 | -14,680)
9/25, 11:00a - Ohio Bobcats (+500 | O/U 48) at Northwestern Wildcats (-14.5 | -700)
9/25, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+190 | O/U 45) vs Wisconsin Badgers in Chicago (-6.5 | -235)
9/25, 2:30p - Colorado State Rams (+1110 | O/U 44.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes (-23.5 | -2040)
9/25, 2:30p - Illinois Fighting Illini (+345 | O/U 53) at Purdue Boilermakers (-11 | -445)
9/25, 2:30p - Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+805 | O/U 49.5) at Michigan Wolverines (-20.5 | -1220)
9/25, 2:30p - Kent State Golden Flashes (+455 | O/U 70) at Maryland Terrapins (-14.5 | -610)
9/25, 6:00p - Nebraska Cornhuskers (+170 | O/U 52) at Michigan State Spartans (-5 | -200)
9/25, 6:30p - Akron Zips (N/A | O/U 66.5) at Ohio State Buckeyes (-48.5 | N/A)
9/25, 7:00p - Indiana Hoosiers (-9 | -360) at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+290 | O/U 62.5)

(FCS game not on the board yet... 11:00a Villanova Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions)

Iowa betting thoughts: Last week, I over thought the filters by focusing on only when Iowa was a 20+ point favorite. While it didn’t hurt me in the spread, it did in the over/under. Simplifying this to when Iowa is just a home favorite with Brian as OC, the over is 4-15-1. In other words, Kirk wins games how he wants to win games when he should win games. Let’s go UNDER 44.5 and, as Rob Donaldson put it in our BHGP slack “feel like a scumbag.” I also have Iowa to cover the 23.5 point spread in our Pants Predict but don’t feel good enough about it to ponk it here.

One area I absolutely misread going into the season was the Michigan State Spartans. They are the real deal and deserve credit for their turnaround under Mel Tucker. Are they actually likeable this time? I would hate for that to be the case.

An interesting fact is that Mel Tucker is 1-3 SU when his team is favored. But Nebraska under Scott Frost is 2-14 SU when they’re underdogs. What it ultimately comes down to for me is I believe Michigan State to be the better team, they’ll feast on a couple silly decisions by Adrian Martinez and play this one from ahead with their potent ground attack. MSU -5

This week in “Down Bad for Bret Bielema,” I am convincing myself that Purdue should never be double digit favorites.

70 points is way too high of a line for Maryland/Kent State. The Terrapins have only eclipsed that once with Taulia leading the charge, a come-from-behind victory against Minnesota. UNDER 70

Bowling Green is not that good but 31 points is way too many for Minnesota to give, considering their only non-conference victory exceeding that margin under Fleck was against a putrid New Mexico State team in 2018. Bowling Green +31

In additional “are they that good” news...Northwestern...in what world should they give 14.5 points to any team? Wisconsin...should they really be 6.5 point favorites over Notre Dame? IU...9??? No ponks, just a thought.

Michigan games have exceeded 50 points in 11 out of the last 13 games. It’s 8/12 for Rutgers under Schiano reincarnate. The defense isn’t optional in this one but Michigan is in September and hope springs eternal. OVER 49.5


And there you have it. Let’s keep turn the tide!

This week:
Colorado State at Iowa under 44.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State -5 vs Nebraska (1.1 to win 1)
Kent State at Maryland under 70 (1.1 to win 1)
Bowling Green +31 at Minnesota (1.1 to win 1)
Rutgers at Michigan over 49.5 (1.2 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 8-8-1 (+0.4u)
ATS: 3-2-1 (+0.8u)
SU: 1-0 (+2.2u)
O/U: 4-6-0 (-2.6u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins (1.05 to win 1)
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)