FanPost

SPAM - NCAA Football 2021 - Week 4 Preview, Week 3 Recap

WHERE WE'VE BEEN

WEEK 3 BIG 10 ACTION (RECAP)

Iowa won. It wasn't terribly exciting. The defense gave up, basically, like 4 passes and that was about it for Kent State offense. Iowa's offense worked in fits and starts. It was very heartening to see Iowa put together several long drives. But for some dubious officiating, this might have been more like a 43-7 affair that makes you feel a little more optimistic. I don't care. Iowa had the only stat that really matters: more points than the opponent.

How did SPAM fare? Not bad!

WEEK 3 PICKS - REVIEW

Maryland at Illinois
Vegas says: MD -8
SPAM says: MD -4
SPAM Picks: MD to win (HIT!), IL to cover (HIT!)


Cincinnati at Indiana
Vegas says: Cincy -3.5
SPAM says: Cincy -6.6
SPAM Picks: Cincy win (HIT!), Cincy to cover (HIT!)

Michigan State at Miami (FL)
Vegas says: Miami -6
SPAM says: Miami -9.6
SPAM Picks: Miami to win (WHIFF), Miami to cover (WHIFF)


Nebraska at Oklahoma
Vegas Says: OK (-22)
SPAM says: OK (-18.2)
SPAM Picks: OK to win (HIT!), NE to cover (HIT!)


N. Illinois at Michigan
Vegas Says: MI (-27)
SPAM says: MI (-8.2)
SPAM Picks: MI to win (HIT), NILL to cover (don't listen to SPAM, take Michigan) (WHIFF, as I predicted)


Minnesota at Colorado (why, Minnesota!?)
Vegas Says: CO (-2)
SPAM says: CO (-3.7)
SPAM Picks: CO to win (WHIFF), CO to cover (WHIFF)

Purdue at Notre Dame
Vegas says: ND (-7)
SPAM says: ND (-7-4)
SPAM Picks: ND to win (HIT), ND to cover (HIT)



Kent State at Iowa
Vegas says: IA (-22.5)
SPAM says: IA (-6.9)
SPAM Picks: IA to win (HIT), Kent State to cover (WHIFF, BY THE GODDAM HOOK)


Tulsa at Ohio State
Vegas says: OSU (-26)
SPAM says: OSU (-7.5)
SPAM Picks: OSU to win (HIT), Tulsa to cover (HIT)


Duke at Northwestern
Vegas says: NWU (-3)
SPAM says: NWU (-3.9)
SPAM Picks: NWU to win (NO!), NWU to cover (NO!)



Auburn at Penn State
Vegas says: PSU (-6)
SPAM says: PSU (.6)
SPAM Picks: PSU to win (HIT!), PSU to cover (HIT!)

This week, SPAM went 6-5 ATS and 8-3 straight up, bringing SPAM's season record to 13-17-1 ATS and 13-7 straight up..

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEEK 4 - IOWA SEASON PROJECTION UPDATE

Here's the updated SPAM projections for the rest of Iowa's season based on the season to date.

Game by Game


Opponent Margin Win%
Indiana 7.5 W (1-0)
@Iowa State -1.0 W (2-0)
Kent State 8.2 W (3-0)
Colorado State 16.7 84.8%
@Maryland 8.2 70.6%
Penn State 8.5 71.2%
Purdue 10.6 75.1%
@Wisconsin 0.6 54.4%
@Northwestern 3.0 60.0%
Minnesota 11.6 76.8%
Illinois 17.3 85.6%
@Nebraska 7.9 70.1%

I'm a little mystified. Iowa's look-back vs. both Indiana and Iowa State tightened considerably. However, Iowa's projected MOV over almost all of the rest of its schedule improved. The only one that didn't change much is Illinois. What's happening at this phase of the season is that about half of this is based on these teams' stats from last year, and half is from this year. So we're seeing some lingering influences from last year's data as well as incorporating what happened this past weekend. Apparently, on paper, Indiana and Iowa State outperformed their competition relative to Iowa? But, Penn State didn't? Not sure what's going on here, but we'll take it.

Record Projection

Record Odds
5-7 0.2%
6-6 1.3%
7-5 5.5%
8-4 15.0%
9-3 26.4%
10-2 28.9%
11-1 17.9%
12-0 4.8%

4-8 is all but statistically impossible and it's off the table. And, really, anything south of 8-4 is virtually impossible at this point barring some kind of epic unforeseeable collapse. The probability is shifting steadily up, with 10-2 now being the most likely outcome.

Division Championship Odds

Big 10 West

Team Champ. Odds
Iowa 59.95%
Wisconsin 18.34%
Purdue 6.55%
Northwestern 5.35%
Minnesota 2.35%
Nebraska 0.87%
Illinois 0.84%

Ok, so I'm even more confused. Iowa's chances of winning its games against most of its Big 10 competition INCREASED this week, yet Iowa's odds of winning the Division DECREASED slightly. That seems counter-intuitive, and I'm frankly puzzled about how this is happening in the data. I don't know how to interpret it. Perhaps the movement has to do with relative performance of other B1G West teams against each other?

Big 10 East

Team Champ. Odds
Ohio State 49.76%
Penn State 22.97%
Michigan 5.44%
Indinia 4.77%
Rutgers 3.09%
Maryland 3.47%
Michigan State 1.50%


I do not know why SPAM is so down on Michigan State, but ... man. SPAM hates Michigan State. Lots of weird data this week, I don't know what to make of any of it. Ohio State is officially downgraded from Imperial II-class Star Destroy to Venator-class Republic Cruiser.

WEEK 4 ANALYSIS AND PICKS!

Bowling Green at Minnesota
Vegas says: MN -30
SPAM says: MN -15.6
SPAM Picks: BG


Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (@Soldier Field)
Vegas says: WI -6.5
SPAM says: ND -1.7
SPAM Picks: ND (barf)

Villanova at Penn State
Vegas says: -29.5
SPAM says: Push (really, SPAM?)
SPAM Picks: Nova..............blech.


Ohio at Northwestern
Vegas Says: NW -15.5
SPAM says: Ohio -0.8 (REALLY, SPAM?)
SPAM Picks: Ohio (sigh)


Colorado State at Iowa
Vegas Says: IA -23
SPAM says: IA -16.7
SPAM Picks: CST


Illinois at Purdue
Vegas Says: Purdue -10
SPAM says: Purdue -8.0
SPAM Picks: Purdue

Kent State at Maryland
Vegas says: MD -14.5
SPAM says: KENT STATE -1.9
SPAM Picks: Kent State (siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigh)


Rutgers at Michigan
Vegas says: MI -18.5
SPAM says: MI -2.5
SPAM Picks: RUT

Nebraska at Michigan State
Vegas says: MSU -3.5
SPAM says: NE -1.6
SPAM Picks: NE

Akron at Ohio State
Vegas says: OSU -49
SPAM says: OSU -20.2
SPAM Picks: Akron

Indinia at W. Kentucky (?)
Vegas says: IN -10
SPAM says: IN -2.1
SPAM Picks: WK


Have fun! If you get down, get down with responsibility and caution. Only gamble what you can afford to lose. Disclaimer: I am not a gambler, bettor, picker, grinner, lover, sinner, joker, smoker, or midnight toker. I provide this data for fun and games only. You alone are responsible for all of the terrible and costly decisions you make resulting from your completely unjustifiable reliance on it.


Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.