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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 3

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Licking our wounds after a week where there were a lot of unders, including ones I didn’t wager on

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Oregon at Ohio State over 63.5 -1.1u
Ohio State -14.5 v Oregon -1.1u
Purdue at Connecticut over 58.5 -1.1u
Iowa at Iowa State under 46.5 +1u
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin over 52 -1.1u
Washington at Michigan under 48.5 +1u

I’m not going to lie. Pretty displeased with these over picks, particularly since Oregon and Ohio State REFUSED to score in the last 7:55. As if that’s not enough, Purdue & UCONN was scoreless the last quarter and stayed at 49-0 and Wisconsin could only muster 34 points against a maligned Eagles squad. Yuck.

At least the two unders I picked hit. Thanks again Iowa State special teams!


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

Once again, OSU to win...multiple times. Glad I stayed away from that!

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where the rest stand.

9/17, 8:00p - Maryland Terrapins (-7 | -275) at Illinois Fighting Illini (+225 | O/U 61.5)
9/18, 11:00a - Michigan State Spartans (+195 | O/U 56.5) at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-6 | -245)
9/18, 11:00a - Northern Illinois Huskies (+1700 | O/U 54) at Michigan Wolverines (-27.5 | -4000)
9/18, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Nebraska Cornhuskers (+1005 | O/U 62) at Oklahoma Sooners (-22.5 | -1810)
9/18, 11:00a - Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5 | -170) at Indiana Hoosiers (+145 | O/U 49.5)
9/18, 12:00p - Minnesota Golden Gophers (+115 | 48.5) at Colorado Buffaloes (-2.5 | -135)
9/18, 1:30p - Purdue Boilermakers (+235 | O/U 58) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7 | -290)
9/18, 2:30p - Kent State Golden Flashes (+1015 | O/U 55.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes (-23 | -1830)
9/18, 2:30p - Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+1405 | O/U 61) at Ohio State Buckeyes (-24.5 | -3550)
9/18, 3:00p - Northwestern Wildcats (-2.5 | -135) at Duke Blue Devils (+115 | O/U 49.5)
9/18, 6:30p - Auburn Tigers (+170 | O/U 52) at Penn State Nittany Lions (-5 | -200)

(FCS game not on the board yet... 2:30p Delaware Fighting Blue Hens at Rutgers Scarlet Knights)

Iowa betting thoughts: When Iowa is a 20+ point favorite, they win against the spread 13-7 under Kirk. WOW. But those numbers are heavily influenced by the first half of his career. Since 2015, it is a much more modest 2-3 against the spread with the two wins coming against really bad North Texas (2015) and Middle Tennessee (2019). I like Kent State +23. The other wager I really like is the OVER 55.5, as it hits 8-3-3 under Kirk and has not lost in the last 8 games (5-0-3) as 20-plus favorites.

I fear I’ve been leaning on the numbers just a smidge too much but how can I not when I find ones like the over in games where Oklahoma (under Lincoln Riley) is a 20-point favorite is 16-5-1? OVER 62 An interesting addition here, is that they’ve lost 3 games, straight up, in these scenarios - twice to Kansas State, once to ISU - and Nebraska fits the bill as a team who may be able to match OU’s scoring. I’m gonna stay away from that number, but 10-1 is a relatively favorable.

Games I want to pick but am deciding against:

  • Indiana under Tom Allen, as home dogs, are 4-9-1 against the spread while the over is 11-3. Cincy with Fickell, as road favorites, are just 3-5 ATS and the over is 5-3. Broadly speaking, I think Cincinnati brings it on the road, more or less burying the thought of IU repeating their 2020 season but I’m not trusting of any unit (namely, each offense) enough to make a pick anywhere.
  • I’m down bad for Bert and want to take Illinois straight up. Probably will with a free bet somewhere.
  • Northwestern should not be favored on the road.
  • There’s a Harrison from Iowa on Northern Illinois.

I am drinking the Kool-Aid on this Penn State team. Now they face another version of Graham Mertz and I like them to vice grip the Tigers, even though Bo Nix’s record on the road is kind of decent! The stats say another story, though. Penn State -5

He’s also a 50% thrower on the road.


And there you have it. Let’s keep turn the tide!

This week:
Kent State +23.5 at Iowa (1.1 to win 1)
Kent State at Iowa over 55.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Nebraska at Oklahoma over 62 (1.1 to win 1)
Penn State -5 v Auburn (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 7-6-0 (+1.6u)
ATS: 2-2-0 (-0.2u)
SU: 1-0 (+2.2u)
O/U: 4-4-0 (-0.4u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins (1.05 to win 1)
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)