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We hammer the over/unders this week

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”

The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Ohio State at Minnesota over 58.5 +1u
Michigan State at Northwestern under 46 -1.1u
Penn State +5.5 at Wisconsin +1u
Indiana at Iowa under 45 +1u
Illinois -5 vs UT-San Antonio -1.1u

Two boats are taking on water - PJ Fleck’s in Minnesota after the devastating injury to Mohamad Ibrahim and the Bielema Boat in Champaign. But really, that was a lesson in overreactions we hope to carry forward into this week. Don’t be so excited to bet on Bret again!

As far as the MSU/Northwestern under not hitting...that’s the risk you take playing the numbers as drastic as those (previously 4-16-0 when NW was a home favorite). Thankfully I decided to call it an early night early spend the evening in the ER (don’t worry, I’m 100%. Just getting old!) so I didn’t stress the 4th quarter. Other than the losses...we love to see it. I have but one regret: not taking the Nits straight up. Oh well!

Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

This one was easy...not taking OSU to win when they were down 14-10 at halftime.

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)

As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where the rest stand.

9/11, 10:00a - Illinois Fighting Illini (+330 | O/U 55) at Virginia Cavaliers (-10 | -430)
9/11, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Oregon Ducks (+470 | O/U 63.5) at Ohio State Buckeyes (-14.5 | -640)
9/11, 11:00a - Miami (OH) RedHawks (+735 | O/U 53.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-18.5 | -1070)
9/11, 1:00p - Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-2.5 | -130) at Syracuse Orange (+110 | O/U 52)
9/11, 2:00p - Purdue Boilermakers (-34 | N/A) at Connecticut Huskies (N/A | O/U 57.5)
9/11, 2:30p - Ball State Cardinals (+980 | O/U 58) at Penn State Nittany Lions (-22.5 | -1760)
9/11, 2:30p - Buffalo Bulls (+440 | O/U 54.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-14 | -590)
9/11, 3:30p - Iowa Hawkeyes (+160 | O/U 46) at Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5 | -190)
9/11, 6:00p - Eastern Michigan Eagles (+1500 | O/U 52) at Wisconsin Badgers (-26 | -5000)
9/11, 7:00p - Washington Huskies (+215 | O/U 48.5) at Michigan Wolverines (-7 | -265)

(FCS games not on the board yet... 11a - Youngstown State at Michigan State; 11a - Indiana State at Northwestern; 6:30p - Idaho at Indiana; 6:30p - Howard at Maryland)

I am heavyyy on over/unders this week but first, let’s discuss the Iowa-ISU game. I am not thrilled by it. Iowa has not won two consecutive games where they’ve played ranked teams since 2004 (Wisconsin & LSU). They’ve had a number of chances but no dice. Kirk Ferentz is 2-6 against the spread as a road underdog since Brian took over as OC. Their only straight up win was last year’s at Penn State. In their favor? 8-5 against ranked teams against the spread.

If I had to make it bet, it would probably be Iowa +4.5 (I think Campbell has a lot of demons to overcome and this game is the referendum on him) but I do not expect them to win. I also like YES to whether there will be overtime at +700. So I will STAY AWAY and let fear take over me.

After the original ponks column went up, this stumbled onto my timeline. Adding it to the slate begrudgingly. I am not one to turn down numbers like that.

Now the bevy of over/unders with some accompanying statistics:

  • Oregon/Ohio State over 63.5 - I just think Ohio State is gonna score buckets of points this season. Issue might be if they get too big a lead early due to a Oregon’s collective internal clock being off and are never really pressured to score more.
  • Purdue/UConn over 58.5 - the over hits 17/21 times over the last 10 seasons when the road team is > 30 point favorites and the O/U is under 60. Like Purdue to continue to keep it rolling and UConn to ... not be a wet blanket.
  • Eastern Michigan/Wisconsin over 52 - Eastern Michigan overs hit 10 of 13 times when they’re 20-point dogs since Chris Creighton has taken over. I look for Wisconsin to try and get Graham Mertz out of “he was the highest rated quarterback to commit to Wisconsin” territory and into “holy crap, what a line against a really bad team!” territory.
  • Washington/Michigan under 48.5 - Washington had a lot of things not working last week but the defense was not one of them as they allowed just 232 yards. Since their head coach, Jimmy Lake, joined the staff, the over is 0-5 when the Huskies are road underdogs following a loss. A lot of filters there, but I expect their defense to be packed (and Michigan to come a little down to earth).

I’m also on the Buckeyes -14.5...see analysis above. They just play a different sport.

Other considerations...Illinois +10 (overreaction to the overreaction), Syracuse +2.5 (Rutgers 1-2 after scoring 60 points), Buffalo +14 (a lot of points against Nebraska but...all their staff went to Kansas with Lance Leipold).

And there you have it. Let’s keep it rolling!

This week:
Oregon at Ohio State over 63.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Ohio State -14.5 v Oregon (1.1 to win 1)
Purdue at Connecticut over 58.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Iowa at Iowa State under 46.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin over 52 (1.1 to win 1)
Washington at Michigan under 48.5 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 5-2-0 (+4 u)
ATS: 2-1-0 (+0.9 u)
SU: 1-0 (+2.2u)
O/U: 2-1-0 (+0.9 u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins (1.05 to win 1)
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)