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SPAM - NCAA Football 2021 - Week 0/1 Predictions (and new for 2021, spread picks!)


Well, we're here! Week 1 is upon us. As in prior seasons, it is my great pleasure to present SPAM's week-by-week predictions. I'm going to try to compare SPAM's predictions against Vegas betting lines as reported by ESPN. We'll see how long I can keep that up before I get sick of it.

WARNING: I don't bet, because I don't know how and I don't care. But lines are fun and interesting, so I'll post them. If you decide to gamble your hard-earned money away on spr0tz, that's on you, bub. Proceed at your own risk.

WHERE WE'VE BEEN

SPAM'S SEASON RECORD

Straight Up: 0-1
ATS: 1-0


WEEK 1 BIG 10 ACTION

You already know that Nebraska lost to Illinois, 30-22. For the record, SPAM had this game as Cornhusker win, favoring Nebraska by 2.2 points on the road. The line was, I believe, about a touchdown, so SPAM would have told you to take Nebraska to win but Illinois for the points.

Michigan v. Western Michigan. (Line: MI -17; SPAM: MI +3.7) (SPAM picks: Western Michigan)

That's right. Western Michigan is going to win straight up. Now, PLEASE REMEMBER that while SPAM is opponent-adjusted, it is not conference-adjusted. SPAM knows what Western Michigan's units statistics have done, and it's adjusted Michigan's expected output based on that, but SPAM doesn't "know" that Western Michigan did not play a schedule of equal competition, and its unit statistics may not translate against a Big 10 opponent. Still, this should never happen. I mean, Iowa is still favored over Kent State later this year.

Iowa v. Indiana. (Line: IA -3.5; SPAM: IA -6.1) (Spam picks: Iowa)

It's rare that SPAM has a bigger line for Iowa than Vegas. Very, very rare. Exceedingly rare. In fact, I can't think of any other time it's happened (though I'm sure it has). But you heard it here first, Iowa is gonna cover. Also, SPAM has Iowa's win percentage at 66.5%, so that 6 point line should be shriveling up a bit for you now.

Wisconsin v. Penn State. (Line: WI -4.5; SPAM: WI -6.9) (Spam picks: Wisconsin)

Basically, see Iowa-Indiana. SPAM likes the Badgers more than Vegas does, and that's very, very rare.

Minnesota v. Ohio State. (Line: OSU -14; SPAM: OSU -7) (Spam picks: Minnesota)

OH THOSE NASTY RODENTS. SPAM thinks Minnesota is going to hang in there with Brutus, folks. Take the points and the Gophers.

Purdue v. Oregon State. (Line: Purdue -7; SPAM: Purdue -2.6) (Spam picks: Oregon State)

How the f--- did we end up with this game existing? I guess take Oregon State, is what SPAM says.

Northwestern v. Michigan State. (Line: NWU -3 SPAM: NWU -15.8) (Spam Picks: Northwestern)

The Wildcats are a whopping 15.8 point favorite over Sparty. Folks, SPAM calls 'em tight, that's a MONSTER margin for a SPAM prediction. MONSTER. SPAM has this game as a 33-17-type affair.

Rutgers v. Temple (Line: Rutgers -14; SPAM: Rutgers: -4.8) (Spam Picks: Temple)

See prior remark about cross-conference competition.

Maryland v. W. Va (Line: W. Va: -2.5; SPAM: W. Va. -6.0) (Spam Picks: W. Va.)

Does anybody here really care about Maryland football right now? I want to care, but I just don't.

If you need a tie-breaker for your various pools and stuff, SPAM has Alabama scoring the most points this week (40) and Arizona scoring the least (7).

OTHER HASHTAG NOTEWORTHY GAMES

Hey, Clemson and Georgia are playing! The line is Clemson -3, but SPAM likes Clemson by 7. Suck on that, Gawgah.

Oh hey! LSU is playing UCLA! Vegas has LSU winning this one by 3.5, but SPAM has UCLA pulling off the upset and winning by 5.9.

Virginia Tech v. N. Carolina is not nothing. Vegas has the Tarheels by 5.5, and SPAM isn't far off at 5.1.

Finally, our friends in Ames! Vegas doesn't have a line on this game that I can find, and neither does SPAM, counting all cross-CFB/CFP games as automatic division 1 wins.


Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.

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