BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR 2021-22 BOWL SZN

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”

The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.

Recap:

Week 13

Iowa +1 at Nebraska (+1)
OSU -7.5 at Michigan (-1.1)
Rutgers +100 vs. Maryland (-1)
Michigan State +165 vs. Penn State (+1.65)
Indiana at Purdue over 50.5 (+1)
Northwestern at Illinois under 44.5 (-1.1)
Wisconsin -7 at Minnesota (-1.1)

ATS 1-2 -1.2u
O/U 1-1 -0.1u
SU 1-1 +.65u

These games happened over a month ago. Some logic was flawless while other logic was less flawless. Shoutout home dogs in rivalry games, I guess.

As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

12/28, 9:15p - West Virginia Mountaineers (+170 | O/U 45) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-5 | -200)
12/29, 1:15p - Maryland Terrapins (-3.5 | -160) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (+140 | O/U 54.5)
12/30, 2p - Tennessee Volunteers (-5 | -190) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (+160 | O/U 63.5)
12/30, 6p - Pittsburgh Panthers (+105 | O/U 56.5) vs. Michigan State Spartans (-2.5 | -125)
12/30, 9:30p - Wisconsin Badgers (-6 | -220) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (+180 | O/U 42)
12/31, 10a - Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-14.5 | -630) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+465 | O/U 61.5)
12/31, 6:30p - Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5 | -305) vs. Michigan Wolverines (+240 | O/U 45)
1/1, 11a - Penn State Nittany Lions (-1 | -120) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (+100 | O/U 47.5)
1/1, 2p - Iowa Hawkeyes (+125 | O/U 44) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-3 | -145)
1/1, 4p - Utah Utes (+200| O/U 66) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5 | -250)

So many Big Ten games! My head is spinning. First up, my Iowa football betting thoughts:

Personally, I think Kentucky’s record is similarly soft as Iowa’s. Their best win is either their 7-point victory at Florida, in the similar vein as the Hawkeyes’ PSU then big wins against 6-6 teams: LSU (42-21) & at Louisville (52-21). Otherwise ... not really buying it. But! They are well-balanced. Top 30ish offense & defense.

This team is not unlike the 2011 Oklahoma team, though that group had a top 10 offense, and I suspect they’ll be well-prepared for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are dealing with some QB drama, which is never a good way to enter the game. I don’t think they’ll win but do like OVER 44 as a way to hedge my happiness without betting on Iowa to lose.

Numbers tilt this way a bit, too. Over is 5-1 in Iowa’s last 6 bowls, 11-8 when Iowa’s an underdog with Brian as OC, & 23-17 when Kentucky is a favorite under Stoops. Dispiriting is that Iowa’s 0-5 straight up (0-4-1 ATS) after a loss as an underdog since 2017.

Little rapid fire after so much talk about Iowa’s game:

• Minnesota -5: I just think the Gophers are the better team. All 8 of their wins have come by 5 or more points.
• Maryland -3.5: All 6 of their losses came to teams who were ranked at the time of their matchup, including 5 in the top 10. Virginia Tech is not ranked.
• Purdue +5: The Boilers are 18-8 ATS as an underdog under Brohm, including 8-3 on the road, which this game figures to be in Nashville against Tennessee.
• Arizona State +6: Getting ahead of my New Year’s Resolution not to bet a cent on Graham Mertz. Late game travelling west for Wisconsin & ASU is 11-6 ATS as underdogs under Herm Edwards.
• Wake Forest -14.5: Much as I want to bet Rutgers straight up, they just don’t have any good results to their name. Their FCS wins have come against teams a combined 15-33.
• Arkansas +100: Hogs are 11-4 ATS as underdogs under Sam Pittman. PSU is 7-20-2 ATS after a loss under James Franklin.

Not sure if there’s any extra thought here but they’re the New Year’s Six games so breaking them up a bit.

Hate going “back in my day” when guys like Kennies Pickett & Walker decide to opt out of a big time bowl game but it definitely stinks to see guys help get their teams to their first NY6 bowl in ... a while ... and not play. But I get it! The value for them is in making sure 1) they’re healthy and 2) in the best condition of their life ahead of the draft in a few months.

That being said, one team is losing a QB, while the other is losing an RB. MSU -2.5 I’d like the over if both guys were playing but they’re not!

Utah & Ohio State combined to be underdogs in just 1 game this season (Utah at USC)! Wild stat. Personally think Utah is peaking at the right time in contrast to OSU but I feel like this one could be a classic in Pasadena. OVER 66

Am I suffering from justplayediowaitis as a Michigan bettor? I feel like they are maybe the best team of the 4 in the playoff and certainly have the best resume. Least embarrassing loss of the 3 among them and strongest last 5 games of the bunch. I think their OL is just a smidge better than Georgia’s which will prove to be the difference. Michigan +240

And there you have it. Happy New Year!

This week:

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota -5 (1.1 to win 1)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Maryland -3.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Music City Bowl: Purdue +5 (1.1 to win 1)
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Michigan State -2.5 (1.1 to win 1)
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State +6 (1.1 to win 1)
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Wake Forest -14.5 (1.1 to win 1)
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl: Michigan +240 (1 to win 2.4)
Outback Bowl: Arkansas +100 (1 to win 1)
VRBO Citrus Bowl: Iowa/Kentucky OVER 44 (1.1 to win 1)
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One: Utah/Ohio State OVER 66 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 38-36-2 (+2.7u)
ATS: 20-15-2 (+3.5u)
SU: 3-4 (+2.0u)
O/U: 15-17-0 (-2.8u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins -1.1
Illinois over 3.5 wins +1
Nebraska under 6.5 wins +1
Michigan State under 5 wins -1.05
Penn State to win the conference -0.5