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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 10

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Rollin’ into week 10 and a bit of a segue into college basketball!

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Iowa at Wisconsin under 36.5 +1
Purdue +7.5 at Nebraska +1
Purdue SU at Nebraska +1.2
Purdue at Nebraska under 52 +1
Rutgers -1.5 at Illinois +1
Northwestern SU vs. Minnesota -0.5
Penn State +18.5 at Ohio State +1
Penn State at Ohio State under 61 +1

Listen: when I find a line which says something happens every time a scenario is set up, I’m going to take it. Thank you to Scott Frost for stinking after bye weeks.

Shoutout to Penn State for sticking close, but not too close to go over!, to Ohio State.

Rutgers and Iowa/WIsconsin...thank you for your service.


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

Nothing doing this past week!

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

11/6, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Ohio State Buckeyes (-14 | -630) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+450 | 67.5)
11/6, 11a - Illinois Fighting Illini (+500 | O/U 44) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-14.5 | -720)
11/6, 2:30p - Penn State Nittany Lions (-10 | -425) at Maryland Terrapins (+320 | O/U 56.5)
11/6, 2:30p - Michigan State Spartans (-3 | -150) at Purdue Boilermakers (+130 | O/U 53)
11/6, 2:30p - Wisconsin Badgers (-13 | -550) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+400 | O/U 38)
11/6, 6p - Iowa Hawkeyes (-12 | -475) at Northwestern Wildcats (+350 | O/U 40.5)
11/6, 6:30p - Indiana Hoosiers (+800 | O/U 51) at Michigan Wolverines (-20 | -1375)

Iowa betting thoughts: I’ve beat this drum for the better part of a week...Iowa hasn’t won a game against Northwestern as a favorite of 9.5 or more points in six past instances. The point of PONKS is not to bet Iowa but to bet the right bet and Northwestern +350 is one I must take. Additionally, the over is 4-11 between these two teams since Pat Fitzgerald has taken over so we’ll snag UNDER 40.5. We’ll also toss NW +12 in as well.

I hate loading up against Iowa but I can’t in good faith present this data and simply ignore it. :(

The potential for a snowball game between Ohio State and Nebraska is always possible, but the over is just 2-3 in the five games they’ve played with each under hitting when that line is over 60. UNDER 67.5

Following a loss in Jim Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan, the Wolverines’ games go over 13-4. Honestly, they might get there themselves. OVER 51

After loss, the Nittany Lions are just 5-20-2 against the spread under James Franklin. They’re 1-1 ATS in such situations this year but we still feel comfortable with that trend. Maryland +10

Rutgers is 3-0 this season ATS after a win. Rutgers +13


And there you have it. A lot of underdogs, which is frightening but let’s keep it rolling!

This week:

Maryland +10 vs. Penn State (1.1 to win 1)
Rutgers +13 vs. Wisconsin (1.1 to win 1)
Indiana at Michigan OVER 51 (1.1 to win 1)
Ohio State at Nebraska UNDER 67.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Northwestern +350 vs. Iowa (1 to win 3.5)
Northwestern +12 vs. Iowa (1.1 to win 1)
Iowa at Northwestern UNDER 40.5 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 30-20-2 (+10.6u)
ATS: 15-6-2 (+8.4u)
SU: 2-2 (+2.4u)
O/U: 12-12-0 (-0.2u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins +1
Michigan State under 5 wins -1.05
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)