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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 13

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This is the end

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Week 12

ATS 2-3 -1.3u
O/U 0-1 -1.1u

Week 11

Minnesota at Iowa under 37.5 -1.2
Rutgers +7 at Indiana +1
Purdue at Ohio State under 63 -1.1
Purdue +21 at Ohio State -1.1
Northwestern +24.5 at Wisconsin -1.1
Northwestern at Wisconsin under 41 -1.1

Basketball

Iowa overs 2-1 +0.9u
Feast week unders 3-0 +3.0u

An ugly couple of weeks still have me afloat in the football column. No sense rehashing that other than WHY THE HELL WOULD I TAKE THE POINTS AGAINST OHIO STATE. Idiot.

Basketball is a different story. Not sure how I plan to continue it but I think my best path to a column is sharing my picks day-to-day on Twitter with a weekly recap/look at the Saturday slate.


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

Nothing doing this past week!

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

11/27, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5 | -300) at Michigan Wolverines (+235 | O/U 64.5)
11/27, 11a - Maryland Terrapins (-1.5 | -120) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+100 | O/U 53)
11/27, 2:30p - Indiana Hoosiers (+460 | O/U 50.5) at Purdue Boilermakers (-15 | -650)
11/27, 2:30p - Penn State Nittany Lions (-4 | -180) at Michigan State Spartans (+165 | O/U 52)
11/27, 2:30p - Northwestern Wildcats (+195 | O/U 44.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5 | -240)
11/27, 3p - Wisconsin Badgers (-7 | -280) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+225 | O/U 39)

We started the week off strong with this:

Love to see it.

Maryland & Rutgers are playing for a bowl berth with both teams sitting at 5-6. Right now, Rutgers is 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread the last two years as home dogs but...the three games from this season were against arguably the best teams in the conference: Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin.

I like Rutgers straight up and for Greg Schiano to do in two years what Scott Frost hasn’t done in 4: get to a bowl game. Rutgers +100

My problem is that week in, week out, my gut is to take the points against OSU (see above). Surely they can’t be that much better than those other teams! But they are. Michigan is 5-1 ATS as the home team this season, the only L coming on an uninspired win against Rutgers. My gut has done me no favors and the indications from my Michigan alum brother are ... underwhelming ... so we go against the numbers (again!) and take OSU -7.5

Wisconsin is 3-0 ATS as the road team this season and, frankly, hedging a smidge of happiness feels about right, even though avoiding OSU provides some semblance of happiness. I just want to have a chance in Indy, though! Wisconsin -7

That Penn State line is fishy as all get out...and then I remembered how bad every team has played post-their-coach-receiving-an-extension. MSU +165

I like Purdue to win comfortably but 15 points is simply too many in a rivalry game where Indiana is going to stake their season to, even though their ATS record is ghastly. I like points to be scored, though, despite Purdue’s 3-8 trend this season with the O/U. OVER 50.5

Who is watching the Illinois/Northwestern game...? Certainly not me, a man addicted to Bret Bielema the way Bret Bielema is addicted to sticking it to all his former employers. Points feel very optional here, and both teams have a combined 6-14-2 record versus the over this season. UNDER 44.5


And there you have it. Let’s flip it a bit!

This week:
Iowa +1 at Nebraska (+1)
OSU -7.5 at Michigan (1.1 to win 1)
Rutgers +100 vs. Maryland (1 to win 1)
Michigan State +165 vs. Penn State (1 to win 1.65)
Indiana at Purdue over 50.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Northwestern at Illinois under 44.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Wisconsin -7 at Minnesota (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 35-32-2 (+3.4u)
ATS: 19-13-2 (+4.7u)
SU: 2-3 (+1.4u)
O/U: 14-16-0 (-2.7u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins +1
Nebraska under 6.5 wins +1
Michigan State under 5 wins -1.05
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)8-7