WHERE WE'VE BEEN
- SPAM - 2021 Pre-Season Preview
- SPAM - 2021 - Week 0/1 Preview
- SPAM - 2021 - Week 2 Preview
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|@Iowa State||-4.5||W (2-0)|
|Kent State||8.4||W (3-0)|
|Colorado State||7.1||W (4-0)|
|Penn State||2.1||W (6-0)|
Big 10 West
|Weird Multiway Tie||21.763|
It's time to talk about tiebreakers.
As of Monday, November 15, 2021, Iowa and Wisconsin are alone atop the Big 10 West at 5-2 in conference play. Technically, if both win out and finish 7-2, both teams in that situation are Big 10 West Co-Champions, but the heads-up winner goes to the championship game to lose to Ohio State. Minnesota and Wisconsin did this in 2019, with the Badgers having the heads-up win and Minnesota hanging a "Second Place Is Still Pretty Good" banner for their division co-championship. I'd throw more shade at the Gophers for that, but I am 100% sure that Iowa, who hung a banner for being invited to the Music City Bowl last year even though the game was never actually played, will also hang a co-division champion banner in that circumstance.
Moving on. Tie breakers. You'll see in the data a category for Weird Multiway Tie, which is more likely to occur than Iowa winning the Division straight-up. Let me explain what that is. SPAM is programmed to determine Division champions and to run the first two tie-breaking scenarios. They are: two teams are tied and the heads-up winner goes to Indy. Or, there's a three-way tie and the team with the highest win % against the others goes. For anything beyond that, SPAM doesn't calculate the winner, it just throws that simulation into the Weird Tie category, which I don't even usually list here as an outcome because the odds of that happening are usually less than 2-3%.
Well, here we are. It's on the table, and so we need to figure out what it means. The bottom line is that in this scenario, Iowa and Purdue are 1-2 against the rest, but Minnesota and Wisconsin are 2-1, so it's either Minnesota or Wisconsin going. I can find no circumstance under which any of those tiebreakers break for Iowa.
There's only one route to Indy for Iowa, and it's to win out and for Wisconsin to drop a game.
Big 10 East
- Rutgers over Indiana by 1.8 (HIT)
- Michigan over PSU by 3.9 (HIT)
- Michigan State over Maryland by 9.4 (HIT)
- Ohio State over Purdue by 14.5 (HIT)
- Wisconsin over Northwestern by 12.2 (HIT)
- Iowa over Minnesota by 2.9 (HIT)
- Michigan over Maryland (by 10.9)
- Wisconsin over Nebraska (by 6.1)
- PSU over Rutgers (by 7.5)
- Ohio State over MSU (by 10.5)
- Iowa over Illinois (by 8.4)
- Minnesota over Indiana (by 7.9)