clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 11

New, 11 comments

We’ve reached peak Big Ten with this slate of games

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Maryland +10 vs. Penn State -1.1
Rutgers +13 vs. Wisconsin -1.1
Indiana at Michigan OVER 51 -1.1
Ohio State at Nebraska UNDER +1
Northwestern +350 vs. Iowa -1
Northwestern +12 vs. Iowa +1
Iowa at Northwestern UNDER 40.5 +1

When you bet on Maryland and Rutgers, you get what you deserve. What can I say. As far as picking Northwestern straight up, 1) they’re all three of my losses in the SU column. Maybe I’ll learn; and 2) well... I’ll let HeavyMetalLawyer take over from here:


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

Nothing doing this past week!

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

11/13, 11a - Michigan Wolverines (-1 | -130) at Penn State Nittany Lions (+110 | O/U 48.5)
11/13, 11a - Northwestern Wildcats (+1200 | O/U 41) at Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5 | -2500)
11/13, 11a - Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+220 | O/U 42.5) at Indiana Hoosiers (-7 | -270)
11/13, 2:30p - Purdue Boilermakers (+750 | O/U 63) at Ohio State Buckeyes (-21 | -1250)
11/13, 2:30p - Minnesota Golden Gophers (+160 | O/U 37.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes (-4.5 | -190)
11/13, 3p - Maryland Terrapins (+375 | O/U 61.5) at Michigan State Spartans (-12 | -510)

Iowa betting thoughts: I’m gonna wear out the “over is 5-17-1 when Iowa is a home favorite” statistic until it stops yielding fruit. The over is 1-4 this season, with the over hitting by just 2 points against Penn State. Hold your nose and take UNDER 37.5 I also like Iowa to win but am spotty on whether they’ll actually cover or not. They’re 3-1 ATS against Fleck, with the 1 being a loss by .5 points. I’m staying away but it’s solid intel IMO.

Listen, I know I just said it was silly to bet Rutgers but Indiana is not Wisconsin. The Hoosiers are 2-7 ATS this season and 1-3 at home. Rutgers is 3-1 ATS as the away team. Rutgers +7

I’m as desperate as you are to take the over in the Purdue/Ohio State game but the numbers show otherwise. OSU’s defense has really tightened the screws since two games allowing 30+ points and Purdue has seen the over hit in 0 of 4 away games. UNDER 63 For some extra zhuzh, Purdue is 7-1 ATS under Brohm when double digit underdogs, including 5-0 when it’s an away game. Purdue +21

Patfitz is 5-1 against the spread against Wisconsin. This number is just way too high. People forget that Paul Chryst also has a Pat Fitzgerald problem. Northwestern +24.5 The over is also 1-5 between these two coaches. God help me. UNDER 41

And yes, I hate that I’m on three road dogs and three unders, but such is life in the Big Ten.


And there you have it. Let’s flip it a bit!

This week:
Minnesota at Iowa under 37.5 (1.2 to win 1)
Rutgers +7 at Indiana (1.1 to win 1)
Purdue at Ohio State under 63 (1.1 to win 1)
Purdue +21 at Ohio State (1.1 to win 1)
Northwestern +24.5 at Wisconsin (1.1 to win 1)
Northwestern at Wisconsin under 41 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 30-20-2 (+9.3u)
ATS: 16-8-2 (+7.2u)
SU: 2-3 (+1.4u)
O/U: 14-13-0 (+0.7u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins +1
Nebraska under 6.5 wins +1
Michigan State under 5 wins -1.05
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)