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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 6

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Thank goodness Northwestern is off this week

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Michigan at Wisconsin under 43.5 -1.1
Charlotte +10.5 at Illinois +1
Penn State -12.5 vs Indiana +1
Northwestern +11.5 at Nebraska -1.1
Northwestern +350 at Nebraska -0.5

Backup quarterbacks sent the Michigan/Wisconsin bet from in hand to a laugher in the last 5 minutes of that one and Northwestern is ... um ... not good. Congratulations to Nebraska, there, I guess. I haven’t been the first person to have this sentiment, but it’s going to be NO FUN when Northwestern fights tooth and nail against a heavily favored Iowa football team.

Illinois and Penn State were who I thought they were last week.


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

Once again, no live bets tickled my fancy as my wife and I drove back from Austin on Saturday to tend to our son. The adenovirus is real and it is not a joke!

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-MSU/Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

10/9, 11a - Maryland Terrapins (+800 | O/U 71) at Ohio State Buckeyes (-21 | -1375)
10/9, 11a - Michigan State Spartans (-5 | -210) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+175 | O/U 51)
10/9, 2:30p - Wisconsin Badgers (-11 | -550) at Illinois Fighting Illini (+260 | O/U 42)
10/9, BIG NUDE SATURDAY, 3p - Penn State Nittany Lions (+110 | O/U 40.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5 | -130)
10/9, 6:30p - Michigan Wolverines (-3 | -160) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+140 | O/U 50)

Iowa betting thoughts: two great defenses. I suspect multiple non-offensive touchdowns need to happen for paltry 40.5 to even be hit. Certainly possible, but unlikely considering their statuses as the top non-Georgia scoring defenses in the country. UNDER 40.5

I am also unnecessarily enticed by the above statistic, even though it is just a function of Penn State playing at OSU a number of times. Let’s lay the point-and-a-half and take the Hawks -1.5.

Down bad for Bert, REMATCH EDITION. There is nothing that will stop him from doing everything he can to beat Wisconsin this week. Well, Brandon Peters might, but if there’s a more previously highly regarded QB who’s performed less admirably than Peters, it’s Mertz. This one is ugly, simply because Wisconsin cannot score enough points to cover the spread. Illinois +11 It should be noted that I am going against the numbers on this one - Wisconsin covers 15-6-0 as road favorites under Paul Chryst.

MSU had a get right game against Western Kentucky last week after a tight one against Nebraska the week before. Credit where it is due. Yet I think Rutgers poses a stiff challenge for Sparty and will keep it close in Piscataway. Rutgers +5

Nebraska had a get right game of their own and frankly, too much went right. They didn’t save enough for this week. I think we see the game resemble their effort at Michigan State but the Wolverines’ defense poses a stronger challenge than the Spartans. Michigan -3 & UNDER 50


And there you have it. Let’s keep turn the tide!

This week:

Rutgers +5 vs Michigan State (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois +11 vs Wisconsin (1.1 to win 1)
Iowa -1.5 vs Penn State (1.1 to win 1)
Penn State at Iowa under 40.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan -3 at Nebraska (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan at Nebraska under 50 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 13-13-1 (+0.5u)
ATS: 6-4-1 (+1.6u)
SU: 1-1 (+1.7u)
O/U: 6-8-0 (-2.8u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins (1.05 to win 1)
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)