clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 9

New, 12 comments

Another winning week and a live bet I didn’t deserve

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Michigan -23 vs Northwestern +1
Illinois +23 at Penn State +1
Wisconsin at Purdue under 40.5 -1.1
Maryland at Minnesota over 54.5 -1.1
Ohio State -21 at Indiana +1
Ohio State at Indiana over 59.5 +1)

I’ve now picked two 20+ point dogs who eventually won and didn’t put even a taste on the ML. Such is life.

If Ohio State is the Death Star, what does that make Michigan?

Those other over/unders weren’t fun!


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

I finally did it. I broke down and made a live bet. I also dipped my toes outside of the Big 10 to do it. How could I not take Oklahoma -7 at halftime against Kansas.

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

10/30, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Michigan Wolverines (-4 | -195) at Michigan State Spartans (+165 | O/U 50)
10/30, 11a - Iowa Hawkeyes (+145 | O/U 36.5) at Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5 | -165)
10/30, 11a - Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-1.5 | -125) at Illinois Fighting Illini (+105 | O/U 41.5)
10/30, 11a - Indiana Hoosiers (+185 | O/U 49.5) at Maryland Terrapins (-5 | -220)
10/30, 2:30p - Minnesota Golden Gophers (-7.5 | -310) at Northwestern Wildcats (+245 | O/U 42.5)
10/30, 2:30p - Purdue Boilermakers (+245 | O/U 52) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7.5 | O/U 52)
10/30, 6:30p - Penn State Nittany Lions (+650 | O/U 61) at Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5 | -1000)

Iowa betting thoughts: JP’s great stat - that Iowa hasn’t lost against Wisconsin as the higher rated team - looms large. As much as I love it, I don’t trust this team as far as I can throw them. Which is why I love the under. Whenever the O/U has been at or under 40 over the last 5 seasons (2016 onward), the over is 22-48-2. Hold your nose and take UNDER 36.5.

I teased this one next one on the Bird App, and have to give credit for it to the retired-from-the-internet StoopsMyAss... Scott Frost is 0-5 straight up and against the spread at Nebraska when following the bye week. Now, Purdue is not so good with a rest disadvantage (2-5 under Brohm) but they are 7-2 ATS as road underdogs. The O/U is also 1-6 when Purdue with Brohm are at a rest disadvantage. So we love this game. Maybe a little too much. Purdue +7.5, UNDER 52, and 0.5 units on Purdue straight up

I don’t like anything about BIG NUDE SATURDAY’S game.

Much as I love Bert (I will be seeing the man in the flesh when they visit Kinnick), his teams have yet to string two straight games together. Rutgers -1.5

Other than the fact that Northwestern is 1-0 straight up as home underdogs (against Rutgers, but still!) and 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 against PJ Fleck, it just feels very on brand for them to round into form ahead of their game against Iowa. 0.5 units on Northwestern straight up

After roasting Gookin in the linked tweet above, I really like this one he offers: PSU is 4-1-0 ATS the last 5 against Ohio State. And as much as I dislike the Nittany Lions and James Franklin and their general disarray, 18.5 points is simply too many for a team with their defense. The over is also 2-4-1 in PSU/OSU games since he took over. PSU +18.5 and UNDER 61


And there you have it. Let’s ride the wave!

This week:

Iowa at Wisconsin under 36.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Purdue +7.5 at Nebraska (1.1 to win 1)
Purdue SU at Nebraska (0.49 to win 1.2)
Purdue at Nebraska under 52 (1.1 to win 1)
Rutgers -1.5 at Illinois (1.1 to win 1)
Northwestern SU vs. Minnesota (0.49 to win 1.2)
Penn State +18.5 at Ohio State (1.1 to win 1)
Penn State at Ohio State under 61 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 23-19-2 (+3.9u)
ATS: 12-6-2 (+5.4u)
SU: 1-1 (+1.7u)
O/U: 9-12-0 (-3.2u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins -1.05
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)