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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 8

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I won’t mention I went 4-0 last week if you don’t

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Purdue at Iowa under 43 +1
Michigan State -4.5 at Indiana +1
Army +14 at Wisconsin +1
Nebraska at Minnesota over 49 +1

I’ll keep this brief:

1) Not the way I envisioned the Iowa/Purdue under going
2) Thank you Matt Coughlin
3) 15 pass attempts for Graham Mertz is a winning number for Wisconsin and underdogs against the spread.
4) The Nebraska/Minnesota O/U looked like a lock until Adrian Martinez got every part of his body except the ball with 3:44 left in the third (Minnesota was up 21-16) before no scores happened for another 10 minutes game time. Then Martinez threw the ball away while in the end zone, Minnesota scored a 56-yard touchdown on the next drive, and Martinez closed the gap to make it 30-23.

Moral of the story? Need some breaks to have an undefeated week, no matter how small!


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

I’m keeping this section for posterity. Never thought about a live bet!

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

10/23, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Northwestern Wildcats (+1000 | O/U 51) at Michigan Wolverines (-23.5 | -2000)
10/23, 11a - Illinois Fighting Illini (+1000 | O/U 45.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions (-23 | -2000)
10/23, 2p - Wisconsin Badgers (-3 | -160) at Purdue Boilermakers (+140 | O/U 40.5)
10/23, 2:30p - Maryland Terrapins (+170 | O/U 54.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-4 | -200)
10/23, 6:30p - Ohio State Buckeyes (-21 | -1250) at Indiana Hoosiers (+750 | O/U 59.5)

Iowa betting thoughts: Officially happy it’s the bye week. After 7 straight weeks of planning my Saturdays around when the Hawks were playing, it’s the perfect time to take a breath and go to a pumpkin patch. I just hope pictures there turn out better than the ones Elliott took at daycare. He was not having it.

I shared it with the slack group with the caption “when Iowa gets their butts kicked but you still have to take pictures at a family wedding” and it was suggested by Matt Cabel to tag yourself. I’m 1. Which number are you?

I only laugh because the alternative is to cry.

How sad is it that BIG NUDE SATURDAY is at a game where the line is 23.5? I don’t like it, but Northwestern has really struggled defending the run game (5.5 YPC), which is where Michigan has excelled (5.5 YPC). I don’t love the line but Michigan is 5-1 ATS while the Wildcats are 2-4. Michigan -23.5

While I think Penn State is going to look a lot better with whomever is quarterbacking than Taquan Roberson did two weeks ago, I am very into this trend: Penn State is 4-19-2 ATS following a loss under James Franklin. I guess I’m once again DOWN BAD FOR BERT. Illinois +23

The over is 0-6 in Purdue games. Two really really good defenses in this one and even though 40.5 is devastatingly low, I don’t trust either team enough to do well, which means we take the trend. UNDER 40.5

What team are we gonna get for Minnesota? That was the question last week regarding whether the over would hit. I think Maryland’s no defense trend continues and we see some version of last season’s barn burner play out. OVER 54.5

Is Indiana back? Is Ohio State back? LOL and Yes. OSU is 7-1-1 ATS and the O/U is 7-1-1 when the Buckeyes are a road favorite under Ryan Day. OSU -21 & OVER 59.5


And there you have it. Let’s ride the wave!

This week:

Michigan -23 vs Northwestern (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois +23 at Penn State (1.1 to win 1)
Wisconsin at Purdue under 40.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Maryland at Minnesota over 54.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Ohio State -21 at Indiana (1.15 to win 1)
Ohio State at Indiana over 59.5 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 19-17-2 (+2.1u)
ATS: 9-6-2 (+2.4u)
SU: 1-1 (+1.7u)
O/U: 8-10-0 (-2.0u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins -1.05
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)