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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 7

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Pain

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Rutgers +5 vs Michigan State -1.1
Illinois +11 vs Wisconsin -1.1
Iowa -1.5 vs Penn State +1
Penn State at Iowa under 40.5 -1.1
Michigan -3 at Nebraska +0
Michigan at Nebraska under 50 -1.1

Pain. Pain. Pain.

It’s a really bad sign when my second best bet was a PUSH. But that is what I get for betting two underdogs and convincing myself that whenever I see an over/under line I like, it’s gonna go under.


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

Time to bury this section? We’ll see if I figure anything out while at a wedding this weekend!

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy DraftKings.

10/16, 11a - Michigan State Spartans (-4.5 | -170) at Indiana Hoosiers (+150 | O/U 48.5)
10/16, 11a - Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4.5 | -190) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+160 | O/U 49.5)
10/16, 11a - Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-2 | -130) at Northwestern Wildcats (+110 | O/U 45)
10/16, 2:30p - Purdue Boilermakers (+360 | O/U 43) at Iowa Hawkeyes (-11.5 | -490)
10/16, 7p - Army Black Knights (+435 | O/U 38) at Wisconsin Badgers (-14 | -600)

Iowa betting thoughts: It’s a stat I’ve repeated time and again, but when Iowa’s a home favorite since 2017, the over is 5-16-1. It’s line which has me a little skeptical given the history between these two teams, but that’s more fear-based than reality. The winner has scored in the 20s in each of the four meetings with Jeff Brohm as Purdue’s HC. The late score is always a risk, but given the two team’s defenses, UNDER 43 is the bet. I’m staying away from the spread. Too much risk for a backdoor cover.

As my partner in crime from The Pants Party, Ben Ross, likes to say in regards to teams overstaying their welcome: “they’re turning into a pumpkin.” Well, IU did and Michael Penix remains a shell of himself. When will Michigan State see their clock strike midnight? Not this week, even though the line is funky as a marathoner’s pair of socks on mile 22. MSU -4.5

Army is good and can probably hang with Wisconsin. Since they turned the corner under Monken (2016), when they’re road dogs, they’re 9-7 ATS with the over going 6-10. The line’s a little too low for me to wade my toes into the O/U, but I like them to cover, even if it means the game ends 13-0. Army +14 Stealth ML bet, they’re 5-11 as road underdogs.

No Bert this week. THANK GOD.

Minnesota is a bad team who continues to get worse by way of injuries. Nebraska is Nebraska. Will the Golden Gophers help at all in terms of getting the over? Feels like a weird back-and-forther because that is simply what the Huskers do. OVER 49

Northwestern has turned into the Wildkitties this season but I always feel like they’re due. Pat Fitz lives rent-free in my mind. STAYING AWAY.


And there you have it. Fade me if you want!

This week:

Purdue at Iowa under 43 (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State -5 at Indiana (1.1 to win 1)
Army +14 at Wisconsin (1.1 to win 1)
Nebraska at Minnesota over 49 (1.1 to win 1)

Season record:
Overall: 14-17-2 (-1.9u)
ATS: 7-6-2 (+0.4u)
SU: 1-1 (+1.7u)
O/U: 6-10-0 (-4.0u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins -1.05
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)