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BOILERHONK’S PONKS FOR WEEK 5

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Whenever I’m over, it’s under

My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to keep feeding that 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”


The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re gonna keep it simple so each wager makes potential payout in approximately single unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up/down dealio. That math was tricky.

Still, probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also...Big Ten games only. For now.


Recap:

Colorado State at Iowa under 44.5 +1u
Michigan State -5 vs Nebraska -1.1u
Kent State at Maryland under 70 +1u
Bowling Green +31 at Minnesota +1u
Rutgers at Michigan over 49.5 -1.2u

Reupping this very sad stat after I misguidingly decided to take an over: ponks are 5-1 when I pick an under and 1-6 meaning unders are 11-2 when I settle on a game to bet an O/U on.

Kirk Ferentz has mastered the convincing-enough win while staying under. A true unicorn.

Silly me for not taking the nearly +3000 (that’s 30 to 1!) underdog in Bowling Green last week. PJ Fleck, the boat is taking on water.

It’s incredible that Michigan State went the whole second half without converting a first down, only to run the wildcat down to the 2 yard line on their first play from scrimmage in overtime. Then they half-heartedly tried to move it into the endzone. You play to win, not cover, so I respect it.


Introducing a new segment! The live bet which made me reach for my wallet but ultimately not pull the trigger on:

No inklings last week! Probably none this week as I waffle between the beer tent at Austin City Limits and the Airbnb we’re staying when the ACL grounds are off limits due to thunderstorms! Fun times.

(Live betting is an unwritten rule for me to avoid during PONKS)


As far as this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stand.

10/1, 7p - Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5 | -170) at Maryland Terrapins (+140 | O/U 47.5)
10/2, 11a - Minnesota Golden Gophers (+115 | O/U 47) at Purdue Boilermakers (-2.5 | -135)
10/2, 11a - Charlotte 49ers (+320 | O/U 54) at Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5 | -420)
10/2, BIG NUDE SATURDAY - Michigan Wolverines (+110 | O/U 43.5) at Wisconsin Badgers (-2 | -130)
10/2, 2:30p - Ohio State Buckeyes (-15 | -700) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+500 | O/U 58)
10/2, 6:30p - Indiana Hoosiers (+375 | O/U 53.5) at Penn State (-12.5 | -500)
10/2, 6:30p - Northwestern Wildcats (+350 | O/U 52) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-11.5 | -450)
10/2, 6:30p - Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+325 | O/U 64.5) at Michigan State Spartans (-10.5 | -425)

Iowa betting thoughts: Since Brian took over as offensive coordinator, Iowa is 10-1 straight up as road favorites and 7-4 ATS while the over is 7-4. I believe Iowa to be the better team and that if Maryland plays into the Hawkeye style by coming out of the gates gunning, Iowa can win by potentially two scores. But if they take what Iowa gives them and stays committed to the running game then it will be, at minimum a dog fight. Gut says that Mike Locksley thinks he can gun it deep against the Hawks and that it backfires and that Iowa -3.5 is the best wager of those on the board. But I am staying away big time.

12.5 points is a lot in a conference game but people forget IU body-snatched Penn State’s 2020 season when Michael Penix dove into the endzone to get the win. PSU -12.5

11.5 points feels like even more for a volatile (and, dare I say, exciting!) Nebraska team. Northwestern is 8-2 the last 5 years ATS as road underdogs. Nebraska is also just 7-5 under Frost straight up when they’re favored. Northwestern +11.5 & 0.5u on Northwestern SU

This week in “Down Bad for Bret Bielema,” 10.5 points is way too many for this Illinois team to be favored by against anyone. Charlotte +10.5

This is the third time Wisconsin will be featured on BIG NUDE SATURDAY but the fourth time a game they’re playing in will fail to meet a paltry O/U. Such is life with Graham Mertz at the helm! Michigan/Wisconsin under 43.5


And there you have it. Let’s keep turn the tide!

This week:
Michigan at Wisconsin under 43.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Charlotte +10.5 at Illinois (1.15 to win 1)
Penn State -12.5 vs Indiana (1.1 to win 1)
Northwestern +11.5 at Nebraska (1.1 to win 1)
Northwestern +350 at Nebraska (0.5 to win 1.75)

Season record:
Overall: 11-10-1 (+1.1u)
ATS: 4-3-1 (+0.7u)
SU: 1-0 (+2.2u)
O/U: 6-7-0 (-1.8u)

Futures bets:
Penn State over 8.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Illinois over 3.5 wins (1.65 to win 1)
Nebraska under 6.5 wins (1.1 to win 1)
Michigan State under 5 wins (1.05 to win 1)
Penn State to win the conference (0.5 to win 2.25)