For those of you who may not know but ahead of this season, my lovely wife gave birth to our baby boy. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.
So it’s time to open a 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.
Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”
The ground rules:
- No more than 20% wagered per week
- No more than 5% on a single bet
- 240 units on Ohio State -20.5 v Indiana (net -240)
- 240 units on Illinois +15.5 at Nebraska (net +220)
- 440 units on Northwestern ML +240 v Wisconsin (net +1056)
Bankroll: 9,888 units
We took last week off because the ponks ponked too hard and the Thanksgiving malaise did not give way to any creative writing or creative betting stretches. Well, we did have the latter, but we’ll get to that in a minute.
As far as the last publicly accountable stretch of wagering, it was pretty good and almost perfect. Ohio State couldn’t put Indiana away. It stunk because opposite them in the 11:00 window Illinois was DOING work in Lincoln.
Our work was done as Pat Fitzgerald put Wisconsin away. Sometimes it’s too easy to make money gambling but it always to easy to lose money gambling. I guess that’s the thrill.
The straight-up goodness feels like a lifetime ago, considering the mess of a game they played against Michigan State. It worked out well enough for me on the side, as the first quarter over/under snuck down to 6.5. The next play?
If you ever find a live bet for a quarter dip below a touchdown. Please @ me.
Anyways, I became HOOKED to the live overs on this game because it lived in the 40s and I kept wanting to wager on Northwestern straight up but never caught a line I liked so I settled for over 47.5 & 48.5 (+160!!!) and was feeling great when the game looked like it was heading to overtime. Alas, it did not and MSU took a field goal lead, making the bets dead in the water.
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND:
Some days your the hydrant, others, the dog. On the most rare of days, you’re both.
Thanks for the loss, Kansas State.
Iowa gambling thoughts: I like Illinois to cover. 13 points is just a lot and the game might never be in doubt but Kirk and Lovie are very happy to get into a rock fight.
To the betting machine! (all lines from William Hill at some point!)
Ohio State Buckeyes (-23.5) at Michigan State Spartans
This might be Ohio State’s last game of the regular season so they’re going to be looking for every bit of eye test they can muster. I guess this oversimplifies the eye test, but what would being 6-0 against:
- 1-4 Nebraska
- 1-5 Penn State
- 2-4 Rutgers
- 4-1 Indiana
- 2-3 Michigan State
- 2-4 Michigan
really mean? I mean, those are 5 baaad teams and a 6th which is only getting worse with the loss of their QB.
Anyways, Michigan State came down off their high of beating Michigan by getting destroyed by Iowa. I suspect something similar in store here.
The pick: Ohio State -23.5, 440 units to return 840
Indiana Hoosiers (+14) at Wisconsin Badgers
Indiana is a defensive team playing a defensive opponent, which will mitigate the loss of Michael Penix. Plus, I’m not sure either team gets to 30 which feels like a safe spot to take a two touchdown margin.
The worst takes from last week were the ones about how “wOw! MiNnEsOtA kEpT wIsCoNsIn OuT oF tHe ChAmPiOnShIp GaMe.” No they didn’t, Northwestern did. Just like Northwestern kept Iowa out of the championship game.
I’m not bitter, you are!
The pick: Indiana +14, 220 units to return 420
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5 | O/U 62.5)
Let’s check in on how things are going for the team who beat Iowa before Northwestern.
Passionate Jeff Brohm will battle Nebraska with a roster compromised by opt outs.— Tom Dienhart (@TomDienhart1) December 3, 2020
“There’s been a handful of guys opt out that we’ll be missing on Saturday. Well, you know, it's all personal reasons ... I don't wanna get into the specifics.”https://t.co/sSKk84KwJu pic.twitter.com/FIUVzg5Bol
Far be it from me to criticize the state of Purdue’s locker room - I was way off about Iowa post-Northwestern win - but this is the case FOR the drip-drip-drip of transfers Iowa saw in the late October/early November timeframe. I’m not sure you want this stuff to fester like it appears to have for Purdue. (also doesn’t help to get absolutely jobbed by a referee but that’s besides this point)
Barring a total annihilation of Brohm’s receiving corps as a result of opt outs, I still think they’ll put up points. Nebraska will to because they’re facing Bob Diaco. I still can’t believe Iowa couldn’t score more than 20 points against a Bob Diaco defense.
The loser of this game should have to employ Diaco until they face off again.
The pick: Over 62.5, 330 units to return 630
And there you have it! Another Big Ten only menu of items. Did I consider Rutgers +330? Only enough to write it here so I can bring it up if they do, in fact, beat Penn State!
Ohio State -23.5 at Michigan State (returns 840 units)
Indiana +14 at Wisconsin (returns 420 units)
Nebraska/Purdue over 62.5 (returns 630 units)
Chelsea +800 to win Premier League (returns 4,005 units)