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There are some Big Ten teams playing so I guess we’ll put a shekel or two on them

For those of you who may not know but ahead of this season, my lovely wife gave birth to our baby boy. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to open a 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”

The ground rules:

  • No more than 20% wagered per week
  • No more than 5% on a single bet

Last week:

  • 200 units Rutgers ML v Nebraska (net -200 units)
  • 220 units Northwestern +20.5 v Ohio State (net +200 units)
  • 220 units Penn State -15.5 v Illinois (net +200 units)

Bankroll: 11,298 units

Happy Wednesday!

Ponks are now 9-3 over the last four weeks so I’ve decided to keep it rolling with bowl season.

Will it continue into basketball season? Only if I can continue this hot streak!

It feels like a month ago when I made the above wagers and I have to say I’m retrospectively impressed they came through on the plus side. Nebraska somehow beat Rutgers which is an unfair way to frame that Friday night dealio. They absolutely racked up yards (620) but they needed to sustain their four turnovers.

Penn State and Illinois hit the over midway through the second quarter which was genuinely impressive. Then Penn State slammed on the gas. Fun stuff.

Ohio State is going to get exposed because man, it’s a horrible look to spend over half of the game trailing that Northwestern team. No disrespect, though!

To the betting machine! (all lines from William Hill)

12/30, 11:00a - Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5 | -360) v. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+290 | O/U 51.5)
1/1, 12:00p - Auburn Tigers (+145) v. Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5 | -170 | O/U 43.5)
1/1, 7:00p - Ohio State Buckeyes (+240) v. Clemson Tigers (-7.5 | -300 | O/U 66.5)
1/2, 11:30a - Ole Miss Rebels (+250) v. Indiana Hoosiers (-8.5 | -310 | O/U 65.5)

I guess only the Iowa-Missouri showdown was cancelled which meant only five Big Ten teams were slated to play in bowl games which feels light but also correct for 2020. Consider this scenario:

  • Maryland finished above Penn State ahead of the Championship Weekend at 2-3 vs. 3-5 (.400 vs. .375)
  • Penn State beats Illinois, now 4-5 (.444)
  • Maryland is still ahead of Penn State according to sports-reference

No shade. Just something I noticed. Also, the conference should consider keeping the Championship Weekend deal, but only if they reduce the number of regular season conference games to eight, which allows some non-conference scheduling flexibility.

Yes, I am filibustering my picks.

Anyways, when I didn’t contain my picks to the Big Ten, I was generally drawn towards Wake Forest. They stick out as 9.5 point underdogs here, as Wisconsin should not be that aggressively favored against anyone.

Wake is 6-2 against the spread this season while the Badgers are 2-4. A riskier ponks might select the Deacons straight up but I’ll settle with the spread.

Pick #1: Wake Forest +9.5, 220 units to return 420

Indiana is 7-0 against the spread this season but I am very concerned with them against a HIGH-POWERED Ole Miss team. Does IU have requisite ability to match the Rebels’ ESS EEE SEE SPEEEED???

So I’ll stay away from that. BTW: rest in peace the absolute greatest start time for any football game: the Outback Bowl’s 11am start on New Year’s Day. NOTHING was better than that.

I just don’t have a good feeling about Ohio State. It feels like they’ve been playing like poo for pretty much all of their games - remember how Nebraska started the season with a BANG on them? - which they were able to get away with because their opponents played like even stinkier poo.

Clemson isn’t poo, even though it pains me to bet on Dabo.

Pick #2: Clemson -7.5, 220 units to return 420

43.5 points seems way too low until I realized Northwestern averaged just 23 points a game, a full touchdown under Iowa’s average on the season. UGH

Auburn is a team without a coach right now so tough to know where their motivations are. Northwestern will be ready.

Pick #3: Northwestern -3.5, 220 units to return 420

And there you have it. Check back whenever to see a recap on the season. Should be fun!

10,638 units

Outstanding bets:
Wake Forest +9.5 v. Wisconsin(220 units to return 420)
Clemson -7.5 v. Ohio State (220 units to return 420)
Northwestern -3.5 v. Auburn (220 units to return 420)
Chelsea +800 to win Premier League (returns 4,005 units)