For those of you who may not know but ahead of this season, my lovely wife gave birth to our baby boy. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.
So it’s time to open a 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.
Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”
The ground rules:
- No more than 20% wagered per week
- No more than 5% on a single bet
- 440 units LSU -3 at Auburn (net -440)
- 220 units Kentucky +17 v Georgia (net +200)
- 200 units Baylor ML v TCU (net -200)
Bankroll: 9,122 units
Less happy Friday!
Yeash. It’s a horrible sign when the highlight of your gambling weekend is some combination of:
- one team (the Kentucky Wildcats) holding onto an 11-point deficit deep into the fourth quarter before your second Bloody Mary has run dry, and
- your bet AGAINST your team (the Iowa Hawkeyes), outside of the ponks bankroll but using the exact strategy laid out in last week’s ponks, nets you a unfortunate hedge against happiness.
Outside of those games, LSU is officially dead to me. I’m not ready to write off Ed Orgeron as the next Gene Chizik but I guess it’s not off the table. (Let’s wait until we have a non-pandemic season to make that categorization)
It was also silly to bet the Baylor Bears, because why would I want to cheer for that forsaken program under any circumstance.
Lessons learned! Until next week!
To the betting machine! (all lines from William Hill at some point!)
Let’s get this party started later tonight!
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at NC State Wolfpack (+10.5 | ML +305)
North Carolina State is 6-3 under Dave Doeren after a bye week with the three losses coming to #1 Clemson, #11 Notre Dame, and #1 Florida State. Manny Diaz is 0-3.
The Wolfpack are in the unfortunate position of having a negative point differential by virtue of two big road losses to Virginia Tech and UNC. They bounce back in a big way this weekend.
Dave Doeren should be on Iowa’s short list.
The pick: NC State ML, 200 units to return 810
Let’s add a little west coast action to keep our Friday going!
BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos (+3.5 | O/U 61.5)
I liked this stat:
Since 2005, Boise State has been a home underdog just ONE TIME!— Brad Powers (@BradPowers7) November 3, 2020
They were 2-point home dogs to Fresno St in 2018 and the Broncos won 24-17.
This week Boise St is a 3-point home underdog to BYU.
Now, Mr. Powers (if that is his real name) goes against the Broncs for his in-week picks but I like them to cover, if not win out right.
Tallysight has an over/under line available (it’s not available on William Hill at the time of this writing but we’ll hammer it when it is), and that feels like a good hedge should BYU win by a wider margin. Both these offenses are high flying and 61.5 simply seems too low for two teams averaging 90 points between them.
This realization made me sad about the state of Iowa football, though:
There have been two winners from Iowa’s season so far: Daviyon Nixon and Zach Wilson.— Scare-ison (@HD_starr) October 31, 2020
The picks: Boise State +3.5, 330 units to return 630; OVER 61.5, 220 units to return 420
Time to make a cocktail and celebrate the World Biggest Outdoor Cocktail Party by myself and indoors:
Georgia Bulldogs (-3.5) vs Florida Gators
We have an unfortunate hook situation but we’ll lay the half point because:
- Georgia is the best defense Florida has faced so far this season
- Georgia’s run game is absolutely rolling & the Gators
The pick: Georgia -3.5, 220 units to return 420
The Pac-12 is back:
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks (-9)
Oregon : Pac-12 :: Ohio State : Big Ten
Put less standardized test-y, Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope to have a team in the playoff. The way there is through the eye test and rolling up points. Pay no mind to the fact they’re replacing a pretty good, it would appear NFL QB (Justin Herbert) and a few opt-outs, most notably Penei Sewell. Stanford is dealing with their own, as well, so it may be a wash.
The pick: Oregon -9, 220 units to return 420
And there you have it! May your Friday and Saturday be as plentiful as the ponks.
NC State ML v Miami (FL) (returns 810)
Boise State +3.5 v BYU (returns 630)
Boise State/BYU OVER 61.5 (returns 420)
Georgia -3.5 v Florida (returns 420)
Oregon -9 v Stanford (returns 420)
Chelsea +800 to win Premier League (returns 4,005 units)