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Iowa is officially on the “DO NOT BET” list

For those of you who may not know but ahead of this season, my lovely wife gave birth to our baby boy. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.

So it’s time to open a 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.

Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”

The ground rules:

  • No more than 20% wagered per week
  • No more than 5% on a single bet

Last week:

  • 220 units on Nebraska/Ohio State OVER 67.5 (net +200)
  • 220 units on Iowa/Purdue OVER 53 (net -220)
  • 220 units on Michigan/Minnesota OVER 54.5 (net +200)
  • 220 units Pittsburgh +10 v Notre Dame (net -220)
  • 220 units Oklahoma State -3.5 v Iowa State (net-220)

Bankroll: 9,562 units

Less happy Friday!

What a DEVASTATING week of gambling last Saturday was. First, we had to deal with a delightful cover Ryan Day felt OBLIGATED to apologize for:

NEVER apologize for hitting the over. Never. Especially against a team who does an end-around the conference after their previously schedule opponent, the Wisconsin Badgers, exceed the threshold of positive COVID-19 tests.

If you’re gonna try and schedule another opponent, pro tip: don’t be so obvious about searching for a W. I get the sense that Big Ten presidents and commissioners would have been over the moon to marshal the 19th ranked Thundering Herd into Lincoln for a game on Saturday.

But nooo, you had to stoop to the FCS. Classic “I’m gonna ask for an apology but not permission” behavior from the Big Ten’s least favorite trouble child.

I go on about Nebraska in this space because I want to avoid two specific results: Iowa/Purdue hitting the under and Brock Purdy backdoor covering against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. What the heck man! You’re not allowed to let Gookin feel this way!

You only feel that way about your team losing when you have the hook!

I wanted to watch the Michigan/Minnesota game but then it was my night to put baby BoilerHawk to sleep. When I emerged from setting him off for his slumber, the over was almost a lock, so I decided it wasn’t worth making a case to turn off The Great British Bake Off.

Pat Narduzzi: you’re dead to me.

Before we get to the you may be able to tell from the The Pants Predicts, I am very out on the Iowa game. Here’s a refresher, courtesy of TallySight:

(Now that I see it in graphic form it feels so...dirty)

Well, I rattled off a couple unfortunate stats in my space over there but want to add a couple more here, which build off them...

  • Bears repeating: Iowa’s only one-possession win (1-6 in seven games) against Pat Fitzgerald was in 2013 when the game went to overtime after Iowa after blowing a 10-0 halftime lead. Yes, the score ended up 17-10.
  • In those one-possession games, the Wildcats have outscored Iowa 88-41 in the second half and 40-10 in the fourth quarter. I mean, JFC. In percentage of total points for those games, that’s 63% & 31% of NW’s scoring and 37% & 9% of Iowa’s scoring in the second half & fourth quarter, respectively.
  • The average halftime score of the seven games? 10.1 to 7.3, Iowa.

So if Iowa’s going to win, it’s probably going to be from way ahead (relatively speaking). My gambling advice for this game? If Iowa heads to the locker room with anything less than a touchdown lead, take Northwestern straight up.

To the betting machine! (all lines from William Hill at some point!)

Loser leaves town their nickname at the door!

LSU Tigers (-3) at Auburn Tigers

As a friend of enough Arkansas Razorbacks fans, I know a thing or two about disliking Chad Morris and let me tell you, there is some DYSFUNCTION going on in Auburn!

There is perhaps no greater tonic for a moribund offense than facing Lane Kiffin’s “rebels” seeing as the 35 points is just 2 more than the season low they yielded to Arkansas the week prior. 44.6 points allowed per game feels impossible! It took six games before Iowa yielded more than 44 CUMULATIVE points last year.

And sure, maybe there’s some home underdog magic going on here, which I don’t really like. Yet LSU’s problem has not been offense like Auburn’s and 2020 is the year I begin resting my laurels on offense instead of defense. Just like Nick Saban.

The pick: LSU -3, 440 units to return 840

We’ll lay some dollars on the only head coach in college football with a better sitch than Kirk Ferentz:

Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (+17)

Kentucky is 6-2 ATS as home underdogs since 2016. The two losses? Georgia.

In those games, UGA was 2.5-point favorite and won by 3 (2016) and a 9.5-point favorite and won by 17 (2018).

17 points is a bridge too far for me to see Georgia covering this one with the Bulldogs averaging just 33 points/game and Kentucky yielding 20. Further, Kentucky’s defense is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry which feels safe against Georgia’s 4 (even though they have built their offense around it).

The Wildcats have caused 10 turnovers, including 9 interceptions. Now, all of those INTs have happened in just two games (Mississippi State & Tennessee) but they still happened!

They’re a stealth pick straight up but we’ll be happy to take the points for this effort.

The pick: Kentucy +17, 220 units to return 420

Let’s cut straight to the chase:

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears (+2.5 / ML: +120)

Home dog. 50/50 game where you get the good end of the bet with a win.

The pick: Baylor Bears ML, 200 units to return 440

And there you have it: Wildcats, Tigers, and Bears, oh my!

8,702 units

Outstanding bets:
LSU -3 at Auburn (returns 840)
Kentucky +17 v Georgia (returns 420)
Baylor ML v TCU (returns 440)
Chelsea +800 to win Premier League (returns 4,005 units)