For those of you who may not know but ahead of this season, my lovely wife gave birth to our baby boy. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.
So it’s time to open a 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.
Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”
The ground rules:
- No more than 20% wagered per week
- No more than 5% on a single bet
- 220 units on Alabama -4.5 (net +200)
- 395 units on Alabama ML (-180) (net +220)
- 220 units on Boston College +13 (net -220)
- 200 units on Wake Forest ML (+110) (net +220)
Bankroll: 9,822 units
With Big Ten football BACK in a big way, we’re moving this column to an early happy hour to switch things up. Does it mean we’re gonna lay a pretty penny on Illinois +20? Heck no. But it does mean I absolutely will mix a mean cocktail at 1:30 when I would otherwise wait until 2.
There remain no rules in quarantine.
Anyways, a wise man once said, “Bet Bama” so that’s what we did last week. It looked a little shaky there in the first half if you totally avoided the fact that I am taller than Georgia’s QB and that he was 13/27 and totally mediocre save the 84-yard TD pass.
Then I got lil baby BoilerHawk to bed which karmically set the second half on track.
Recapping the rest of the bets, Pittsburgh did to Miami what I thought BC would do to Virginia Tech. I’ll tell you this much: I won’t make that mistake again.
Aaand Wake Forest did what they had to do as a home dog. Just a delight to see [checks notes] Dave Clawson have success. Or at least get to 2-2 this season. Pot-A-to pot-ah-to.
As I look back through what I wrote last week, this is pretty hilarious considering the news which happened since my writing of it on Saturday: “Iowa should fire Kirk Ferentz.” So I’ll go ahead and leave that alone.
To the betting machine! (all lines from William Hill at some point!)
Let’s go IN on a step to profit from last week’s GAMBLER’S GUIDE:
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-26.5 | O/U: 67.5)
Iowa Hawkeyes (-3 | O/U: 53) at Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan Wolverines (-3 | O/U: 54.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers
“When in doubt, bet the over”
As a result, I have cultivated an all-day cornucopia of Big Ten overs for you to wake up, hungover from happy hour-turned-food delivery feast-turned-in-home karaoke and just root for points. That’s all we’re doing here.
It starts with Ohio State, last year’s #1 offense in the conference who might very well get to that number themselves. They’ll face a team whose problem is not scoring but stopping people from scoring. For the sake of this bet, they’re perfect.
Our overpalooza heads westward with a Purdue team who was the Big Ten’s worst defense, points-wise last year (non-Maryland/Rutgers division) and can put some points on the board themselves. We’ll turn to Jeff Brohm’s track record in openers while heading Purdue because it is certainly indicative of the type of game he wants to play, even if he’s watching it from the comfort of his living room:
2017: v Louisville Cardinals: 35-28 (L)
2018: v Northwestern Wildcats: 31-27 (L)
2019: at Nevada Wolfpack: 31-28 (L)
Average points scored: 60
As for Minnesota/Michigan...Tanner Morgan is the best returning QB in the conference not named Justin Fields and I simply don’t trust either defense to be particularly ready, no matter how much whole milk and steak Jim Harbaugh has loaded his guys with.
The picks: 220 units to return 420 on each of the below
Side bet: I wouldn’t hate it if you also threw some units on a parlay for all but you didn’t hear that from me
Now we learn from our mistake:
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (+10)
Couple Pittsburgh stats:
- 4-1 against the spread against a ranked Notre Dame
- Narduzzi is 4-1 ATS against top 5 opponents in his last 5 games
If the Pittsburgh offense had anything resembling a pulse, the money line (+310) would be much more enticing.
The pick: Pittsburgh +10, 220 units to return 420
Now let’s involve our frenemies in Ames:
Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5)
Okie State hasn’t played in three weeks which, frankly, is a while. But they’ve allowed just 27 points in their three wins. While Kansas was involved in reducing that number almost as much as humanly possible, West Virginia has scored 56, 27, and 38 (KU) points otherwise and Tulsa racked it up against UCF in their only other game.
Iowa State seems the part at 3-0 in conference play but Oklahoma State is the best team this side of the Mississippi they’ve faced in 2020. The Cowboys are 9-2 in the last 11 games these two have played with every win being by 4 points or more.
The pick: Oklahoma State -3.5, 220 units to return 420
And there we have it. We’ve Johnny Appleseeded our way across the plains with a handful of bets without having a single one stick out.
Nebraska/Ohio State OVER 67.5 (returns 420)
Iowa/Purdue OVER 53 (returns 420)
Michigan/Minnesota OVER 54.5 (returns 420)
Pittsburgh +10 v Notre Dame (returns 420)
Oklahoma State -3.5 v Iowa State (returns 420)
Chelsea +800 to win Premier League (returns 4,005 units)