For those of you who may not know but ahead of this season, my lovely wife gave birth to our baby boy. He’s adorable. But he’ll need money for college assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4” point god or TikTok star and it still costs a pretty penny to attend.
So it’s time to open a 529 and what better way* to invest than college football picks.
Note: there are much better ways to invest money and neither I, nor BHGP, are liable for any losses you may endure as a result of any “advice.”
The ground rules:
- No more than 20% wagered per week
- No more than 5% on a single bet
- 200 units on parlay with Alabama -23.5, Georgia -12.5, and LSU -14.5 (net -200)
- 220 units on Oklahoma -3 v. Texas (net +200)
- 200 units on Kansas State ML (+280) at TCU (net +560)
Bankroll: 9,402 units
The SEC parlay? Oh, it’s dead. So f****** dead. LSU and prefired defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is dead to me. I’m not mad at Alabama, though. Lane Kiffin remains a boy jenius even though he’s probably going to lose to Arkansas.
As for The Red River
Shootout Rivalry? What a game. I mean, seriously. If it weren’t so good, I might be angry at the fact that Gus Johnson said “bullets flying in south Dallas.” Bold choice of words, in my opinion. There was a point in that game where I would have preferred Oklahoma lost in the fifth overtime instead of winning by a field goal in the fourth because a push is just such a weak out for a bet. Thankfully, we got the cover.
Iowa should fire Kirk Ferentz just so they can hire Chris Klieman. I joke, but I fear my dream candidate for Hawkeye football coach is now destined for greater things than 20 years as head coach in Iowa City.
So we’ve got just seven days until the Hawkeyes grace the field which means we can remain objective bettors for another day or two. As such, I’ve developed a spreadsheet which I’ve decided to ignore for the upcoming game because, frankly, Alabama is too freaking good.
Time to load up and kind of break a rule:
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5 / ML: -180; now -190)
So at the time of this bet, I was able to lock a portion of it into the Crimson Tide -180. I just don’t see the best team getting beat, at home, especially now that Nick Saban is COVID-negative. 21-0, and such.
Really, though, it comes down to Ole Miss and Texas A&M having dynamic offenses the Bulldogs are incapable of matching. After a lackluster effort last week, the Alabama defense will turn the tide against Georgia. What a pun.
Georgia does have an elite defense but isn’t there a case to be made it’s happened against two mediocre offenses and Arkansas? I suspect it will feel like a completely different ballgame having to go toe-to-toe with the unique combination of skill and athleticism Alabama possesses.
Additionally, the line moved down to -4.5, when news of Saban’s absence hit the wire, which was too low of a number for me to pass up. It’s still hovering there so maybe you can grab a bit for yourself as well!
All in all, we’re loading up on Bama because Kirby Smart isn’t Lane Kiffin and if this one turns into a barnburner, it’ll leave Georgia in the dust.
The picks: Alabama -4.5, 220 units to return 420 AND Alabama ML -180, 395 units to return 615
Now, one might say: why not just load up on the spread? And that’s a fair Q. All I can say is that I just want to make sure I lock the back door.
Both of these teams are very willing to allow their opponent to work between the 20s before bending. Neither averages more plays per game than their opponent and both are in the top third of the country in terms of time of possession.
Boston College has been clean, though, and leads their turnover battle 8 to 3 through four games. VT is at 3-3 through three. I’m not convince BC could necessarily win this game but they’re not going to make many mistakes and will play it close.
Call it the Northwestern special.
The pick: Boston College +13, 220 units to win 420
Another ACC showdown:
Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+1.5 / ML: +110, now +105)
This is another game where I got a little lucky in terms of getting in on the ground floor but Wake is a home dog and sometimes I just can’t help myself. Really, though, this game feels like a coinflip so getting a positive number here, feels good.
The crux of the logic is built on the team’s respective performances against North Carolina State. Virginia got blown out pretty good while Wake kept it close. And sure, maybe the Deke’s only win came against Campbell last week but Virginia’s offense has more turnovers than a patisserie.
The pick: Wake Forest +110, 200 units to return 420
And there we have it. Skirting the rules to load up on Alabama. Surely nothing can go wrong!
Alabama -4.5 (returns 420)
Alabama ML (-180) (returns 615)
Boston College +13 (returns 420)
Wake Forest ML (+110) (returns 420)
Chelsea +800 to win Premier League (returns 4,005 units)