As March Madness quickly approaches, we’ll be taking a look at Iowa’s resume each week. We’ll explore their accomplishments to-date, but also look at how they’re projected to finish and what that might mean for their tournament seeding.
As always, if there are things you like or don’t, something you’d like to see added, etc. let us know in the comments.
This week, the Hawkeyes are fresh off yet another home win as they defeated the Wisconsin Badgers last night to make it five straight wins. The loss bumped the Badgers out of the NET’s quadrant one, depriving Iowa of a sixth Q1 win on the season.
The Hawkeyes will have another chance at one as they travel to Maryland on Thursday. That same evening, Illinois will take on Minnesota. A win there for the Fighting Illini would likely bump them into quad 1 ahead of their trip to Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Sunday.
Here’s your weekly breakdown of Iowa’s NCAA Tournament chances.
W - Maryland (13, Q1)
W - @Northwestern (143, Q#)
W - Michigan (35, Q2)
W - Rutgers (23, Q1)
W - Wisconsin (32, Q2)
Quadrant One Record: 6-3
Wins: Maryland, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Texas Tech (N), @ Syracuse, @ Iowa State
Losses: San Diego State (N), @ Michigan, Penn State (N)
Quadrant Two Record: 3-1
Wins: Minnesota, Michigan, Cincinnati (N)
Quadrant Three Record: 2-1
Wins: Oral Roberts, @ Northwestern
Losses: @ Nebraska
Quadrant Four Record: 4-0
Wins: North Florida, Cal Poly, SIU Edwardsville, Kennessaw State
Thursday, January 30th: @Maryland (13, Q1)
Sunday, February 2nd: Illinois (32, Q2)
Wednesday, February 5th: @Purdue (36, Q1)
Saturday, February 8th: Nebraska (158, Q3)
Thursday, February 13th: @Indiana (44, Q1)
Sunday, February 16th: @Minnesota (43, Q1)
Thursday, February 20th: Ohio State (19. Q1)
Tuesday, February 25th: @Michigan State (8, Q1)
Saturday, February 29th: Penn State (27, Q1)
Tuesday, March 3rd: Purdue (36, Q2)
Sunday, March 8th: @Illinois (32, Q1)
Quadrant 1 Games Remaining: @Maryland, @Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, Ohio State, @Michigan State, Penn State, @Illinois
Quadrant 2 Games Remaining: Illinois, Purdue
Quadrant 3 Games Remaining: Nebraska
Quadrant 4 Games Remaining: None
KenPom Projected Record: 20-11, 11-9*
Wins: Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Losses: @Maryland, @Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, @Michigan State, @Illinois
*Note: This is the calculated record based on projected results the rest of the way. KenPom’s stated projected record for Iowa is 21-10, 12-8.
Projected Quad 1 Record: 7-9
Projected Quad 2 Record: 6-1
Projected Quad 3 Record: 3-1
Projected Quad 4 Record: 4-0
Teams to Win: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Michigan, DePaul, Northwestern, Nebraska
Iowa needs to keep as many quad 1 wins as possible without having any of their losses fall further. Iowa State is on the fringe of Q1 and needs to stay above 75 in the NET. Wisconsin and Michigan are both on the fringe of Q1 wins at home. A few key wins could give Iowa two more Q1 wins without any more work on the court. Similarly, Northwestern is close to jumping to a Q2 win.
On the flip side, DePaul and Nebraska are both within the danger zone for dropping. DePaul is 9 NET spots away from falling to a Q3 loss. Nebraska, while comfortably in Q3 for the road loss, is close to becoming a Q4 matchup when they come to Carver. Another Q4 win does not good for Iowa.
Teams to Lose: Illinois, Michigan State, Villanova, Butler, Maryland, Auburn, Kentucky
Illinois and Michigan State are both one game ahead of Iowa in the Big Ten standings. While this is geared toward tournament seeding, Iowa hasn’t won a share of the Big Ten regular season title since 1979 and they haven’t won it outright since 1970. That goal is firmly within their grasp this season.
Maryland is tied with Iowa in the Big Ten standings at the moment and while the Hawkeyes currently hold the tie breaker, they have a return visit to College Park on Friday that could take that away. The Terrapins are also seated on the 4 line per Bracket Matrix, along with Villanova, Butler and Auburn. Losses from all those teams help Iowa in the NCAA Tournament seeding process. Kentucky shares a spot on the 5 line with Iowa, though they are one spot ahead of the Hawkeyes. Losses for the Wildcats help Iowa and are generally a good thing for college basketball.