FanPost

SPAM Update: Week 2 Recap, Iowa Projections Update, Week 3 Predictions

If you're not familiar with SPAM, click here for a brief explanation and the pre-season predictions.

You can find SPAM's full team record analysis for all 130 division 1 teams here, updated after week 2. Note: This link will be replaced after week 3 is done, so if you're coming back to this later, it'll be current for that week.

PRIOR SPAM UPDATES:

* Week 1 Predictions

* Week 2 Predictions

BIG 10 PREDICTION UPDATE

Last week, SPAM projected Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa to win, and Nebraska and Minnesota to lose. The Cornhuskers choked away a highly winnable game (boy, do we know how that feels) and Minnesota damn lost. In the East, SPAM had Maryland losing to Syracuse, and Michigan sneaking past Army by 3.5 points (!!!!!!), with the rest winners. SPAM went 10-2 if my math is right and on the season is 22-3 picking winners straight up.

IOWA SEASON PROJECTION UPDATE

Here's your updated win percentages.

Opponent Margin Win%
Miami (OH) WIN (1-0) WIN (1-0)
Rutgers WIN (2-0) WIN (2-0)
@Iowa State 3.5 (last week: 2.8) 61.6% (last week: 59.5%)
Md. Tn. State 11.4 (last week: 10.7) 76.5% (last week: 74.0%)
@Michigan -2.1 (last week: -3.2) 42.0% (last week: 39.7%)
Penn State 2.0 (last week: 4.4) 57.6% (last week: 63.0%)
Purdue 11.1 (last week: 11.4) 75.9% (last week: 76.4%)
@Northwestern 5.9 (last week: 4.8) 66.1% (last week: 63.8%)
@Wisconsin -2.3 (last week: -1.8) 41.7% (last week: 42.8%)
Minnesota 10.8 (last week: 9.8) 75.5% (last week: 73.7%)
Illinois 15.3 (last week: 17.6) 82.8% (last week: 86.0%)
@Nebraska 6.1 (last week: 6.1) 66.5% (last week: 66.5%)

Things are starting to settle down and we're not seeing much movement. Michigan's lackluster performance is closing the margin in that game. Iowa's defensive dominance is helping it pull away against Iowa State, but the Cyclones were off last week so we have less data for them. Wisconsin's strong showings are widening the gap between the Badgers and the Hawkeyes. Minnesota is also falling behind and Nebraska is holding steady.

UPDATED SEASON RECORD PROJECTIONS

Record Freq.
0-12 n/a
1-11 n/a
2-10 n/a
3-9 n/a (last week: 0.10%)
4-8 0.3% (last week: 0.5%)
5-7 1.9% (last week: 2.6%)
6-6 6.7% (last week: 8.1%)
7-5 15.9% (last week: 17.3%)
8-4 25.1% (last week: 25.2%)
9-3 25.9% (last week: 24.6%)
10-2 16.9% (last week: 15.3%)
11-2 6.2% (last week: 5.4%)
12-0 1.0% (last week: 0.8%)

The most likely outcome has now flipped to 9.3, with more outcome distribution stacked at the top. This is an obvious consequence of winning games. Next week will be a big swing either way. Since it's basically a coin flip game, in half of the scenarios, Iowa wins it, and in the others, Iowa loses. Whatever happens, we'll have the real answer and half of those scenarios go away. Likewise, you can expect equally big shifts with wins over the other close games on Iowa's schedule, and especially games where Iowa is a dog (Michigan, Wisconsin).

LOOKING AHEAD

Your Big 10 West Predictions for Week 3:

* Iowa (-3.5) over Iowa State

* Minnesota (-1.9) over Ga. Southern

* Illinois (+2.1) is a dog to E. Michigan

* Nebraska (-4.3) over N. Illinois

* Purdue (-1.5) over TCU

* Northwestern is a SLIGHT dog to UNLV (-0.1)

Your Big 10 East Predictions for Week 3:

* Ohio State (-6.9) over Indiana

* Penn State (-14.9) over Pitt

* Maryland is a 5 point- dog to Temple!?!?!? I don't get that one at all.

* MSU (-3.7) over ASU

I'll update with any interesting Upset Specials once I run the picks and get the lines for the week.

Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.