Overreaction Monday: The Average of 26

Hello and Happy Monday to all you pretty little Hawkeye fans out there in pretty little Hawkeye land. My name is Jerry Scherwin and I am here to overreact with you all today. First time long time, if you will. What are we overreacting about today? Well, I had a question running through my head from late Saturday night and most of Sunday...

How many times has Iowa’s offense neglected to score more than 26 points, while their defense kept opponents under 26 points?

How did I settle on 26 exactly? That was the per team scoring average for college football in 2000(!!!). So, I decided to take a look Iowa’s record in this scenario (despite the fact that the scoring average has jumped to over 30 points per game beginning in 2015 so this, at least in my opinion, is holding the Iowa offense to an incredibly low bar) and see if my suspicion of Iowa’s offense consistently under delivering was true.

Here’s what I found:

Brian Ferentz/Phil Parker Era PPG for the Offense and Defense

2019 (6-3): O PPG: 24.1 (16.6 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 11.6 (11.8 in the Big Ten)

5 times (2-3): Iowa State (18-17 win), Michigan (10-3 loss), Penn State (17-12 loss), Northwestern (20-0 win), Wisconsin (24-22 loss)

2018 (9-4): O PPG: 31.1 (32.6 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 17.7 (20.5 in the Big Ten)

3 times (2-1): Iowa State (13-3 win), Maryland (23-0 win), Northwestern (14-10 loss)

2017 (8-5): O PPG: 28.2 (26.7 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 19.9 (20.1 in the Big Ten)

6 times (2-4): Wyoming (24-3 win), Penn State (21-19 loss), Michigan State (17-10 loss), Northwestern (17-10 loss), Minnesota (17-10 win), Purdue (24-15 loss)

Overall record in games where the defense gives up 26-points or less in the BF/Parker Era: 6-8

Greg Davis/Phil Parker Era PPG for the Offense and Defense

2016 (8-5): O PPG: 24.9 (23.6 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 18.8 (18.6 in the Big Ten)

5 times (3-2): North Dakota State (23-21 loss), Rutgers (14-7 win), Minnesota (14-7 win), Wisconsin (17-9 loss), Michigan (14-13 win)

2015 (12-2): O PPG: 30.9 (29.5 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 20.3 (18.7 in the Big Ten)

2 times (1-1): Wisconsin (10-6 win), Michigan State (16-13 loss)

2014 (7-6): O PPG: 28 (28.2 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 25.6 (26.5 in the Big Ten)

5 times (3-2): Ball State (17-13 win), Iowa State (20-17 loss), Pitt (24-20 win), Purdue (24-10 win), Wisconsin (26-24 loss)

2013 (8-5): O PPG: 26.3 (23.3 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 18.9 (19.6 in the Big Ten)

5 times (3-2): Minnesota (23-7 win), Michigan State (26-14 loss), Northwestern (17-10 win), Michigan (24-21 win), LSU (21-14 loss)

2012 (4-8): O PPG: 19.3 (18.7 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 22.9 (25.1 in the Big Ten)

5 times (2-3): Northern Illinois (18-17 win), Iowa State (9-6 loss), Michigan State (19-16 win), Indiana (24-21 loss), Nebraska (13-7 loss)

Overall record in games where the defense gives up 26-points or less in Greg Davis/Phil Parker Era: 8-7

Ken O’Keefe/Norm Parker Era PPG for the Offense and Defense

2011 (7-6): O PPG: 27.5 (24.1 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 23.8 (23 in the Big Ten)

4 times (1-3): Penn State (13-3 loss), Minnesota (22-21 loss), Michigan (24-16 win), Nebraska (20-7 loss)

2010 (8-5): O PPG: 28.9 (25.6 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 17 (18.6 in the Big Ten)

4 times (2-2): Penn State (24-3 win), Indiana (18-13 win), Northwestern (21-17 loss), Ohio State (20-17 loss)

2009 (11-2): O PPG: 23.1 (21.7 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 15.3 (16.1 in the Big Ten)

8 times (7-1): Northern Iowa (17-16 win), Penn State (21-10 win), Arkansas State (24-21 win), Wisconsin (20-10 win), Michigan State (15-13 win), Northwestern (17-10 loss), Minnesota (12-0 win), Georgia Tech (24-14 win)

2008 (9-4): O PPG: 30.3 (29.7 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 13 (16.2 in the Big Ten)

6 times (3-3): Iowa State (17-5 win), Pitt (21-20 loss), Northwestern (22-17 loss), Michigan State (16-13 loss), Penn State (24-23 win), Purdue (22-17 win)

2007 (6-6): O PPG: 18.5 (17.3 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 18.7 (22.3 in the Big Ten)

5 times (3-2): Northern Illinois (16-3 win), Iowa State (15-13 loss), Wisconsin (17-13 loss), Illinois (10-6 win), Minnesota (21-16 win),

2006 (6-7): O PPG: 23.8 (21.7 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 20.6 (24 in the Big Ten)

7 times (3-4): Syracuse (20-13 win), Illinois (24-7 win), Michigan (20-6 loss), Northern Illinois (24-14 win), Northwestern (21-7 loss), Wisconsin (24-21 loss), Texas (26-24 loss)

2005 (7-5): O PPG: 30 (29 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 20 (20.6 in the Big Ten)

3 times (1-2): Iowa State (23-3 loss), Michigan (23-20 loss), Wisconsin (20-10 win),

2004 (10-2): O PPG: 24.3 (24.8 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 17.5 (15.6 in the Big Ten)

4 times (4-0): Iowa State (17-10 win), Penn State (6-4 win), Illinois (23-13 win), Purdue (23-21 win)

2003 (10-3): O PPG: 28.6 (24.7 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 16.1 (20 in the Big Ten)

5 times (3-2): Miami-OH (21-3 win), Arizona State (21-2 win), Michigan State (20-10 loss), Ohio State (19-10 loss), Penn State (26-14 win)

2002 (11-2): O PPG: 37.2 (37.7 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 19.6 (16.2 in the Big Ten)

2 times (2-0): Indiana (24-8 win), Wisconsin (20-3 win)

2001 (7-5): O PPG: 32.5 (32.8 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 21.5 (25.7 in the Big Ten)

4 times (2-2): Penn State (24-18 win), Purdue (23-14 loss), Iowa State (17-14 loss), Texas Tech (19-16 win)

2000 (3-9): O PPG: 16.9 (18.6 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 27.5 (26.25 in the Big Ten)

4 times (2-2): Iowa State (24-14 loss), Michigan State (21-16 win), Wisconsin (13-7 loss), Penn State (26-23 win)

1999 (1-10): O PPG: 14.7 (15.1 in the Big Ten) D PPG: 31.5 (36 in the Big Ten)

4 times (1-3): Iowa State (17-10 loss), Northern Illinois (24-0 win), Northwestern (23-21 loss), Minnesota (25-21 loss)

Overall record in games where the defense gives up 26-points or less in the Norm Parker/KOK Era: 34-26 (31-21 if you throw out the first two years after Kirk Ferentz and Norm took over the program)

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There have been eight seasons in which Iowa has averaged under 26 points offensively (four of which Iowa averaged 20 points or less).

There have been eighteen seasons in which Iowa has averaged under 30 points offensively.

There have been nineteen seasons in which Iowa has kept their opponents under 26 points on average (and in 15 of those seasons, Iowa kept teams under 20 points on average).

In all but 1999, Iowa kept their opponent under 30 points on average.

If my math is correct, Wisconsin has averaged 26 points or less one time since 2007 (Honestly, I couldn’t look at anymore numbers). But despite copping out at the year I stepped foot onto Iowa’s campus, I’m sure much would be the same if I were to look at Penn State and Ohio State and Michigan and probably Michigan State too. The best teams in the conference have elite defenses like Iowa, but they also compliment them with at least average scoring offenses.

Look, I’m not asking Iowa to do anything super exciting.

Scoring more than 26-points per game on average each and every season seems like an acceptable ask for a team that has the type of developmental coaches, money, facilities, NFL Pipeline, defense, and now the recruiting brand behind them.

I hate to keep using Wisconsin as the ultimate measuring stick, but what did they do on Saturday that was out of this world? What did they do that Iowa couldn’t do right now?

I would argue absolutely nothing.

They leaned on their offensive lineman and allowed them to set the pace of the game while their elite runningback patiently waited for them to open up holes and he gobbled up yards. And when the moment dictated it, their quarterback made some timely throws to their tight ends and possession receivers.

It’s really not rocket science. It’s really not that much to ask.

Iowa, under Kirk Ferentz, is always going to be risk averse on the offensive side of the football and I get that and am perfectly ok with it. But so are most elite college football teams. Nobody wants to turn the ball over.

That’s football.

Rather, they want to control the ball and wear our their opponent. The only difference is, they do so while wanting to score points instead of only playing the field position game.

But I digress.

I’m not here to demand anyone’s head. I know that’s the one thing that seems to divide this fanbase and I don’t like being Mr. Negative. But those numbers speak for themselves as to why Iowa is a perennial 8-win team. We all know it and a lot of us accept it because we don’t want to be Nebraska. But what I am overreacting/demanding is that Kirk lets go of his principals and either allows Brian or his eventual predecessor to bring this offense up to (at least) 2015 speed!

When that finally happens, there is little to no reason Iowa won’t be a team mentioned in the Big Ten Conference’s elite with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State (and kind of Michigan State).

Happy Monday!