FanPost

SPAM Week 7 Recap, Projections Update, Week 8 Predictions

If you're not familiar with SPAM, click here for a brief explanation and the pre-season predictions.

You can find SPAM's full team record analysis for all 130 division 1 teams here, updated after week 7. Note: This link will be replaced after week 6 is done, so if you're coming back to this later, it'll be current for that week.

PRIOR SPAM UPDATES:

HOW DID WE DO?

SPAM went a dreadful 9-17 this past week in Planned Sick Days' pick 'em game on Yahoo, and is now a pedestrian 116-105 overall, for an overall win percentage of 52.5%. Not good, Bob. Not good. SPAM also went 5-1 picking Big 10 games this week, for a total of 55-9 on the season, or 85.9%. SPAM went 1-3 in upset picks this week (Temple hit).

IOWA SEASON PROJECTION UPDATE

Here's your updated win percentages.

Opponent Margin Win%
Miami (OH) WIN (1-0) WIN (1-0)
Rutgers WIN (2-0) WIN (2-0)
@Iowa State WIN (3-0) WIN (3-0)
Md. Tn. State WIN (4-0) WIN (4-0)
@Michigan LOSS (4-1) LOSS (4-1)
Penn State LOSS (4-2) LOSS (4-2)
Purdue 10.8 (last week 12.0) 75.4% (last week 77.5%)
@Northwestern 6.0 (last week 6.3) 66.3% (last week 67.3%)
@Wisconsin -6.6 (last week: -3.3) 32.4% (last week: 38.9%)
Minnesota 7.0 (last week: 8.3) 68.4% (last week: 71.7%)
Illinois 13.4 (last week: 14.5) 79.9% (last week: 83.7%)
@Nebraska 7.6 (last week: 7.2) 69.4% (last week: 67.5%)

All of these lines are moving closer except one: Nebraska. What means is that as crappy as Iowa looked against Penn State, Nebraska was that much worse against Minnesota, to where Iowa's odds of winning in Lincoln increased. Wisconsin is pulling further away in big strides but nobody is really moving much. Given Iowa's inept offense and Jeckel-and-Hyde routine on the road, I think the Hawks probably lose at Northwestern and Wisconsin. Nebraska looks dreadful but beating Iowa is about all they have left to play for this season.

UPDATED SEASON RECORD PROJECTIONS

Record Freq.
5-7 1.6% (last week: 0.6%)
6-6 8.6% (last week:4.2%)
7-5 23.8% (last week: 14.6%)
8-4 35.0% (last week: 28.6%)
9-3 24.8% (last week: 31.0%)
10-2 6.1% (last week: 17.2%)
n/a


If you go on the web site, my source data is goofy and put a phantom game in the win column for week 0, but the above numbers are good. Iowa has played in 3 coin flip games so far this year, and has gone 1-2 in those games. Really, we're somewhat fortunate not to be 0-3. Iowa State probably wins if they get the ball back instead of ... doing whatever it is they did.

With both PSU and UM being losses, Iowa's shot at 9-3 is dwindling rapidly. Statistically, one of those should have been a win. We're not likely to beat Wisconsin, there's probably a 4th loss lurking in there somewhere. With a 3rd year starter in Stanley, the talent at WR, it's hard to imagine Iowa fans being happy with a trip to the Holiday Bowl to play Arizona.

DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Big 10 West
  1. Wisconsin (73.62%) (was 61.87%)
  2. Minnesota (13.15%) (was 14.86%)
  3. Iowa (8.08%) (was 13.41%)
Big 10 East
  1. Ohio State (49.56%) (was 61.82%)
  2. Penn State (44.71%) (was 30.60%)
  3. Michigan (2.15%) (was 2.22%)
The West has been effectively won. That said, don't sleep on the Gophers. Their pillowy soft schedule gives them an Iowa 2015 puncher's chance of doing something special.

The East is more interesting. Penn State's game at Iowa was a coin flip, and with it coming up heads for the Nittany Lions, the heads-up game means much more. Michigan's continues to be one of the most badly-coached talented teams in the country and they're basically out of it. I can't see them beating BOTH Penn State and Ohio State, which they'd have to do to have a prayer here.

Nebraska's loss to Minnesota was the death knell for their season. Nobody else has mattered in this league for several weeks.

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE B1G
  • Ohio State (-15.1) over Northwestern
  • Minnesota (-11.5) over Rutgers
  • Iowa (-10.8) over Purdue
  • Wisconsin (-14.2) over Illinois
  • Maryland (-1.9) over Indiana (???)
  • Penn State (-7.3) over Michigan
KEEPING UP WITH THE CLONES

Iowa State beat WVU and is dead even with upcoming opponent Techas Tex, a slight .7 point dog.

Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.