The Iowa vs Iowa State dual is still fresh on our minds, even though we survived 19-18. What happened in that dual? Are we good or bad? Please don’t let this be the norm…
We’ve been battling injuries, illness, and seemingly the plague to remain undefeated up to this point. Unfortunately though, another Hawkeye starter has fallen by the wayside.
In his mid-week presser head coach Tom Brands relayed the somber news that Myles Wilson (174lbs) is likely to be shut down for an extended period of time. Brands went on to say,
“We are not having good news with Wilson. That’s very unfortunate because he is a great ambassador for our program. He’s a great representative of our program. But we’re going to move on. We’re huddling with our medical team to figure out the next course of action.”
He added, “Sometimes, freak things happen. Myles Wilson’s situation was freaky. He wasn’t even out of position.”
At this point we already (sort of) know what that next course of action will be and I’ll dive into that shortly. But we do have a few pieces of good news.
1: Jacob Warner is healthy and wrestling on Saturday. After his heroic win of #7 Willie Miklus, he jumped up the Flowrestling rankings from #11 to #6.
2: Kaleb Young is also skyrocketing up the very same ladder. He goes from #15 to #7, in large part because his pin over Purdue’s Griffin Parriott is looking really good at this point. Parriott recently upended #4 Tyler Berger (Nebraska) in sudden victory and also beat #11 Taleb Rahmani (Pittsburgh).
And now for the really good news: We are 25-0 all time against Lehigh, 14-0 inside Carver Hawkeye-Arena, all of this with the first dual taking place in 1972. We of course won that 33-3.
Head coach Pat Santoro brings in a scuffling program that has lost their first three duals to start the season. They already lost to Michigan, Princeton and just got skunked by Penn State 42-0 last week. In fact, they didn’t even record a takedown against PSU. It’s definitely not the start they wanted, considering they still have to face Mizzou, Minnesota, Arizona State, Cornell, and Oklahoma State.
That’s an absolutely brutal schedule and so far they’ve been doing it without two All-Americans at the top of their lineup, Connor Schram and Scotty Parker, who go at 125lbs and 133lbs, respectively. So their winless record is not indicative to how good this team can actually be. Furthermore, they have SIX more guys appearing in the rankings, all from 157lbs-285lbs.
All of this is to say that if they were at full strength they would be a very tough out.
So the Hawks barely survived last week’s scare. So where does this leave them? It leaves them undefeated and still favored in this dual matchup, despite losing Myles Wilson, though he isn’t the only one still dinged up. We also have the predicament of Austin DeSanto stepping onto the mat with a bulky shoulder brace, similar to the one made famous by Cory Clark.
This isn’t a particularly good sign so what’s going on? Is this an ongoing issue or preventative? The good news is, nothing has been mentioned about this which makes me hopeful that it’s not serious. Perhaps it’s simply inflammation or swelling, which can be taken care of. Unfortunately, it just takes time to get that under control.
This directly brings us to the next point and that is the probable lineup:
Probables for #Iowa-Lehigh. Alongside the usuals, there’s Paul Glynn at 133, Jeremiah Moody at 165, Wilcke and Bowman at 184, Stoll and Costello at 285. Nobody listed at 174. We’re talking with Brands soon, so we’ll see. pic.twitter.com/BHOWh6GiHN— Cody Goodwin (@codygoodwin) December 4, 2018
As you can see Paul Glynn is also listed at 133lbs. This is definitely a mat time decision on whether or not ADS goes. If we start at 125lbs I’m thinking we see Glynn go in, but if we start somewhere in the middle and things are tight by the time 133lbs rolls around, we could see Austin.
So back to what we sort of know about 174lbs. We know Wilson isn’t going. We know someone else is. The “Mitch Bowman for 174lbs” campaign is well under way, but he legally can’t make weight until the Midlands. So who? That appears to be Jeremiah Moody… but at which weight? As you can see, both Moody and Alex Marinelli are listed at 165lbs, but Moody has only wrestled at 157lbs so far this year. He’s giving up a lot of weight by simply being here, if they choose to slot him in at 174.
If Marinelli stays at his normal weight, he more than likely gets a tech fall or pin against whoever Lehigh throws to The Bull. If Moody steps in at 174lbs he’s going to have his hands full with #6 Jordan Kutler. This is probably a loss for us. Maybe more. Anything Marinelli does, Kutler could potentially offset, so here’s where it gets tricky. If Moody slots in at 165lbs, I’m confident he could win by decision and The Bull bounces up to take on the bigger challenge. FYI, Kutler lost to #2 Mark Hall last week, but held him to a 6-2 decision. Impressive.
This would be the ultimate test for Marinelli. Going up a weight class and taking on their All-American hopeful. If it plays out like this I think The Bull walks away with a win by decision as well. He has the speed and strength to get it done, but it’s whether or not the extra weight counteracts all that goodness.
Ultimately, this dual is going to be decided on how we respond to the losses of last week. Can DeSanto, Lugo, Murin, and Wilcke stop the bleeding? With the exception of Lugo, the other three lost for the first time this season. Now is the moment where they can rebound and regain momentum going into a three-week bye and the Midlands tournament on the horizon.
125: I’m always going to put #1 Spencer Lee on here. He’s so integral to us getting a huge bonus point win right off the bat. 5 or 6 points to spot us at the beginning of every dual is a huge advantage. We need it again.
157: #7 Kaleb Young vs #19 Josh Humphreys. Young has been a machine this year, but has another tough test in true freshman, Humphreys, who had his redshirt pulled last week against PSU (Nolf pinned him in 6:19). He was unranked going into it and because he got pinned late in the 3rd, he blasted onto the rankings and debuts at #19. Young needs to stay aggressive and more importantly, wrestle smart. If he does these two things he’ll win this.
165/174: As mentioned, it’s a coin flip on what happens here. We could very well win both, but if things go sideways and The Bull struggles with the weight, we could very easily lose both. But I’m going to stop being a Pessimistic Patty and say we take care of business.
184: #17 Cash Wilcke vs #8 Ryan Preisch. Cash Money took a big hit in the rankings last week and needs to rebound and start climbing back up. It starts here. Mr. Preisch has steadily climbed up the weight classes over the course of his career and is previously a 2x NCAA qualifier, even being seeded 6th in 2016-2017. He missed most of last year with an injury so like Wilcke, he’s going to be hungry. Cash needs to come in and be aggressive and attack. Even though he lost last week on a counter shot, he was passive for a majority of the match. He can’t do that here if he wants to win.
197: #6 Jacob Warner vs #14 Jake Jakobsen. It’s no fault to him, but Jake Jakobsen is a bit redundant and causes a serious problem because there simply cannot be three “Jakes/ Jacobs” listed in one match. We need to teach him which one reigns supreme and we will. Last week Warner looked to dominate Miklus before rolling an ankle that derailed him for most of the match. He fought through it and won, and supposedly his ankle is fine. If he bursts out of the gate with that same energy this could get ugly for Jakobsen in a hurry. I truly hope it does.
285: #1 Sam Stoll has only wrestled once, but this could be an incredibly difficult test so soon into his comeback. #6 Jordan Wood is looking to make his mark on the heavyweight scene. He was a Midlands finalist two years ago and reached the round of 12 last year at the NCAA’s before bowing out due to injury. Similar to the other weights, we may not see Stoll if the dual victory is sealed. If this happens I expect Aaron Costello will get the greenlight. Likewise, if this becomes the deciding match I won’t be surprised to see Stoll enter the fray. Regardless, Wood got torched by #2 Anthony Cassar (PSU) 12-3 last week. He’s going to come into this match looking for revenge. Stoll and Costello need to be ready for a bear fight.
125: #1 Spencer Lee (5-0) vs. Luke Resnick (1-4)
133: #12 Austin DeSanto (4-1)/ Paul Glynn (2-2) vs. Brandon Paetzell (3-3)
141: #20 Max Murin (4-1) vs. Ryan Pomrinca (1-5) / Danny Moran (6-3)
149: #10 Pat Lugo (1-3) vs. Jimmy Hoffman (1-4)
157: #7 Kaleb Young (4-0) vs. Josh Humphreys (6-1)
165: #4 Alex Marinelli (4-0) / Jeremiah Moody (6-3) vs. #20 Cole Walter (1-3) / Trey Cornish (0-5) / Gordon Wolf (0-0)
174: #4 Alex Marinelli (4-0) / Jeremiah Moody (6-3) vs. #6 Jordan Kutler (4-2)
184: #12 Cash Wilcke (4-1) / Mitch Bowman (2-0) vs #8 Ryan Preisch (2-1)
197: #6 Jacob Warner (1-0) vs. #14 Jake Jakobsen (4-2)
285: #1 Sam Stoll (1-0) / Aaron Costello (3-1) vs. #6 Jordan Wood (5-1)