The other day, I did a very brave thing and looked back and evaluated some very bold predictions I made prior to this Iowa football season.
Some of my predictions came true. Many more, however, did not. Still, I don’t think I did all that poorly!
In addition to that predictions article from August, I also authored a similarly-predictitory piece with more of a gambling slant. Now, I’m not a good gambler, but boy oh boy I would make one HELL of a oddsmaker.
Thanks again to Black-Hearted and Gold-Pantsed reader Gookin for reminding me of my genius. Let’s look at the gambling predictions I made, evaluate how they did (they were all spot on) and then all shower me with compliments in the comments!
Please I need this to get through the day.
Over/under regular-season wins for Iowa Hawkeyes in 2018: 7.5
Here’s what I had to say about the over!
I’m not saying Iowa is going 10-2 next year, but they’re going 10-2 next year and you better hammer that over otherwise we aren’t friends anymore.
Barring significant injury to multiple positions this year, I think anything short of 8 wins would be a downright disaster. Eight regular-season wins would be disappointing. Nine would be good to very good. Ten or more is the ceiling and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that.
So I said take the over. And guess what? It hit!
Well, that’s sort of the only real futures wager that was available in “legitimate” gambling circles. So I was forced to set some odds of my own. It was fun. I made some predictions for some players and the team. Let’s see how those went!
Nate Stanley O/U:
Completion Percentage: 60% (55.8 in 2017)
Passing touchdowns: 22.5 (26)
Interceptions: 8.5 (6)
So, to make it clear, going into this season, I predicted Nate Stanley to complete around 60 percent of his passes, throw for 22 touchdowns and throw 8 interceptions.
Nate Stanley in fact completed 58.6 percent of his passes, threw for 23 touchdowns and tossed 9 picks. Pretty good if I say so myself.
Now Noah Fant!
Noah Fant O/U:
Receiving Yards: 650 (494 in 2017)
Receptions: 40 (30)
Receiving Touchdowns: 8.5 (11)
Fant under-performed this year, but mostly because expectations were sky-high. He ended the year with 519 yards, 7 touchdowns and 39 receptions, so I was pretty close on two of three here.
And onto Anthony Nelson:
Anthony Nelson O/U:
Sacks: 10 (7.5)
Nelson had 9.5 sacks. And even though I set the line at 10, I still predicted he’d have approximately 9.5 sacks:
Anyway, I think Anthony Nelson is a problem few offensive lines will have an answer for. Still, I think he ends the year with 9.5 sacks.
And here some fun team predictions I threw out back in the day:
Total team rushing: O/U 2,000 yards
This whiffed! Iowa had 1,944 rushing yards.
Non-TE receiving touchdowns: O/U 8.5
See I picked the under here and missed big time. Eleven of Iowa’s 24 receiving touchdowns were caught by non-tight ends.
Iowa tight ends with a receiving touchdown: O/U 2.5
Missed here too! Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson were the only tight ends to catch a touchdown this year.
Fourth down conversion percentage: O/U 66%
Iowa converted fourth down 66.67 percent of the time. I am right once again. Bow down to me.