FanPost

Super Prediction Action Machine - 2018, Week 11

SPAM took a week off for Week 10 because I was camping with my kids last week and never got around to running the numbers. If you're curious, the game flipped, and SPAM predicted a Purdue win, 30-27. SPAM had Iowa at 9-3 for Week 10, winning out over Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska.

If you're new to SPAM, many years ago I built a rudimentary statistical model of how Iowa's football seasons go. It completely ignores win/loss records, which don't seem to matter at all when teams play Iowa, and instead looks at yards gained and yards surrendered, and the relationship between those numbers and total points scored. It then predicts how many points Iowa's offense will score against each opposing defense, and how many points Iowa's opponents will score against Iowa's defense.

Here's how the breakdowns have changed over the season:

Week 1: 8-4 (L to WI, MN, PSU, Purdue)

Week 2: 10-2 (L to WI, MN)

Week 3: 10-2 (L to WI, MN)

Week 4: 10-2 (L to MN, PSU)

Week 5: 9-3 (L to WI, MN, PSU)

Week 6: 9-3 (L to WI, MN, PSU)

Week 7: 10-2 (L to WI, PSU)

Week 8: 10-2 (L to WI, PSU)

Week 9: 10-2 (L to WI, PSU)

Week 10: 9-3 (L to WI, PSU, Purdue)

I now present to you updated SPAM predictions before Week 11.

SPAM sees Iowa going 3-0 to finish the season (for the record, I don't; 1-2 is a realistic possibility, Nebraska is much improved).

Updated Prediction for Week 11:

  • 1-0: Iowa over Northern Illinois (CORRECT!)
  • 2-0: Iowa over Iowa State (CORRECT!)
  • 3-0: Iowa over UNI (CORRECT!)
  • 3-1: Iowa over Wisconsin (WRONG!)
  • 4-1: Minnesota over Iowa (WRONG!)
  • 5-1: Iowa over Indiana (CORRECT!)
  • 6-1: Iowa over Maryland (CORRECT!)
  • 6-2: @Penn State over Iowa (CORRECT!)
  • 6-3: @Purdue over Iowa, (CORRECT!)
  • 7-3: Iowa over Northwestern, 30-21
  • 8-3: Iowa over @Illinois, 33-26 (this one has tightened up)
  • 9-3: Iowa over Nebraska, 37-24 (this one has also tightened up)

In short, Iowa is regressing to the mean. Tell SPAM your thoughts in the poll below.

Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.