It’s the heat of the NBA Finals, which mean the NBA Draft is right around the corner. We already know Peter Jok is busting his tail to hear his name called later this year. With Dom Uhl slated for a rotation role as Iowa’s only senior next year, the outlook isn’t good for a fifth straight Hawkeye senior to get drafted or make an NBA roster. But, is there someone else on the roster who could leapfrog into the 2018’s NBA Draft? Taking a look at Tyler Cook’s pedigree, potential, and team expectations makes him the most likely candidate.

The Draftees

Below is the information I compiled regarding sophomores drafted in the NBA during the “one and done” era. Starting with the 2006 NBA draft, American prospects were required to be out of high school at least one year.

Coincidentally, it is exactly 100 players or about 9 a year. While this list does not include sophomores who declared but didn’t get drafted, like Aaron Harrison, it does offer a number of pathways into the Association. But first, who are Cook’s best comparisons?

I kept it simple, and put the above players through the following filter process:

1. Players between the height of 6’7” and 6’10”,
2. Remove the straggling wings (SGs or SFs) and centers

On the whole, this group of 29 players averages 16.2 points and 8.7 rebounds in a number of different ways. The median 247 recruiting rank was 29 - Cook clocked in at 73, according to the site. Twenty-one went to the NCAA tournament, with nine of those making the Sweet 16 or further.

A quick aside provides more data to back up the old adage of guard play is what wins in March. Of the 38 sophomore guards, 31 went to the tournament with 18 advancing to the Sweet 16. Though the percentages line up in terms of tournament participants, the percentage of those who advanced is 15% greater for guards.

So, how does Tyler Cook need to improve for his draft stock to rise? And what is the likelihood of him performing along this path?

The Jack-of-All Trades

Comps: Royce White, Kyle Anderson, Josh McRoberts

All three lack the elite athleticism we’ve grown accustom from NBA power forwards and make up for it with the ability to have the offense run through them. Anderson’s 6.5 assists are the most of any sophomore forward, as he functioned as the point guard at UCLA. White boasts a similar resume, while McRoberts adds 2.5 blocks to his stat line. Both McRoberts and Anderson would shoot the three, while it was absent from White’s game.

For an improvement like this to occur, it would have to include some semblance of an offensive transformation from Fran McCaffery. During his time here, the defense-to-offense transition has mostly occurred with the classic rebounder-to-point guard outlet pass. However, there were hints of a change last year, as there were instances where Peter Jok or Nicholas Baer would get the rebound and bring it up the court to initiate the offense.

Jordan Bohannon’s role in this tactic must be mentioned, as he is a shooting threat once he crosses the half-court line. It is much easier for defenses to key on him when he is hanging in the backcourt to get an outlet pass. An adjustment to have other ball-handlers bring it up - including Cook on rebounds he gets - would allow Bohannon to leak to spots around the arc to make transition defenders choose between guarding the ball-handler or the dead-eye shooter at the 3-point line.

To bring it back around to Cook, he did not show much of this game last year, with some exceptions in transition late in the season. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 0.42 is also far behind those of Anderson and White (McRoberts’ was unavailable) at 2.10 and 1.32, respectively. I would expect him to improve in this area, as he adds more to his game and becomes more apt at managing double teams.

However, I don’t expect Iowa to utilize Cook in this way.

Likelihood: 1/5

The Stretch

Comps: Ryan Anderson, Luke Babbitt, Derrick Williams

Both Anderson and Babbitt were prolific three-point shooters as freshmen who improved in their sophomore years. Williams went from 4/16 as a freshman to 42/74 as a sophomore. I would be remiss if I didn’t also include Nigel Hayes in this group, as well. His sophomore season was fantastic, as he went 40/101 after going 0/0 as a freshman. I don’t think he regrets staying at Wisconsin, but his draft stock was never higher than it was 2015.

Looking at these four, being a stretch can be either a way of life or a flash in the pan. Anderson and Babbitt are career shooters with percentages hovering around 40%; Williams and Hayes have regressed to 30% shooters, with Hayes’ attempts occurring with the shorter college line. Because of this, I can envision a scenario where Cook extends his range out to the college three and averages one make on 2.5 attempts per game with no guarantees of maintaining throughout his career.

Likelihood: 2/5

The Bucket Getter

Comps: Ben Bentil, DeJuan Blair, Jared Sullinger

All three were high-usage players who limited turnovers, snared offensive boards, and got buckets. Bentil is unique from the other two, as he attempted over 150 threes with mixed results. His low percentage adversely affected his overall shooting, as he is much more in line with the others from two.

Tyler Cook’s KenPom line from this year further validates the improvements he must make are far more obtainable than with the other two groups:

Cook is right in line with many of these stats. While Sullinger and Blair were top 30-ish recruits, Bentil’s ranking shows it is not a requirement. I would also offer that Cook resembles Bentil far more than the other two, as they were/are ground-bound post presences.

The key for Cook will be two-fold, scaling his 2017 performance while becoming more efficient. Though he played in only 47.5% of Iowa’s minutes, taking out games missed due to injury puts the figure at a much more respectable 59.4%. In fact, this number is almost identical to Aaron White’s freshman year, whose trajectory went 59.6%-72.2%-69.2%-78.1% throughout his Hawkeye career. I would expect a similar jump to the 70% range for Cook, which would be 28 minutes per game.

With a jump from about 24 minutes/game to 28, his 2017 stats go from: 12.3 points-5.3 rebounds to 14.4 points-6.1 rebounds. The easiest area to become more efficient scoring the ball, is at the line. His current averages of 2.7/4.5 would move to 3.2/5.3 (at 28 minutes), but an improvement to 70% would add another .5 points per game.

As mentioned above, the other area Cook struggled regularly was with turnovers. The KenPom numbers have it as the statistic most out of line with other “bucket-getters.” If he improves to Sullinger’s TO% while maintain his 2017 usage, that means 8% of his possessions result in assists, field goal attempts, or trips to the free throw line.

His usage rate last year of 24.9% ($) is already the second highest among Fran-era forwards, including Aaron White’s hyper-efficient senior season, behind only Jarrod Uthoff’s 26.0% he posted in 2016. Since he may be reaching the ceiling in terms of how much he is using the ball, maintaining this rate with increased minutes, and efficiency, will put him on a path to All-Big Ten.

While I don't expect him to post the raw scoring numbers of Bentil or rebounding of Blair, something like 17 points on 55% shooting and 8 boards will have him on draft boards as a number one option in the Big Ten.

Likelihood: 3/5

Bonus: The Cinderella

Comps: Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, Jordan Crawford, Gordon Hayward, Patrick O’Bryant, Domas Sabonis, Derrick Williams

I decided to open this one up to all positions, because sometimes the easiest way to get noticed is to play the best when the lights are brightest. All seven were on teams not expected (by seed) to make it past the Sweet 16.

If Tyler Cook (and company) brought a Sweet 16 appearance for the first time since 1999, I would be absolutely thrilled, and it would be in large part because of his impact. Like Caleb Swanigan’s departure from Purdue this year, his entry into the NBA draft would be a price I’m willing to pay for a tournament run.