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Lineups in Review: Wisconsin and Penn State

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We’re Going Streaking!

NCAA Basketball: Penn State at Iowa Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

What a difference two weeks - and four straight wins - makes. After Iowa lost at Minnesota and Michigan State, I was grasping at straws as this group was fighting for their NIT lives. Now they’re in everyone’s bubble conversation, and I may be in the market for some new recipes:

It will be tough sledding, though. I was hoping the seeding would matriculate to have Iowa face Nebraska and set up a rematch against Minnesota in quarterfinals to enhance their tournament resume. My estimation of KenPom’s numbers would give Iowa about a 25% chance of advancing to the semis in that situation, not counting any sports karma from the baseline robbery in Minneapolis.

As it stands now, KenPom ($) has Indiana as 2-point favorites over Iowa, giving our beloved Hawkeyes a 42% chance of winning. If they’re able to down the Hoosiers again, KenPom gives Iowa about a 30% chance of beating the Wisconsin Badgers with 1.2% chance of winning the tourney. He also postulates Iowa would need to win out to get in the Big Dance.

These games aren’t played on computers, though. If they were, Iowa would have finished the conference season well below the 10-8 mark they stand right now. They flipped the script in what I believe to be Fran’s best coaching job at Iowa and they could absolutely continue the script-flipping come Thursday. Let’s Al Davis this thing:

All-Big Ten Team Thoughts

Yesterday morning, I was preparing myself for some marginal disappointment of Peter Jok not making the All-Big Ten First Team. Thankfully, I was not disappointed. I was, however, a little surprised to see Nate Mason make it as he wasn’t even on my first draft of the blind resumes. My initial read on the results was voters ultimately rewarded the best player from the highest seeded squads plus the best player who wasn’t one of those named.

Speaking of which, most of the projections I had seen had Caleb Swanigan, Ethan Happ, and Melo Trimble as locks. What I did was, including, Trimble, put 6 guards into the following table using conference-only statistics.

All-Big Ten Blind Resumes

Player Points Rebounds Assists Turnovers Stocks FG%/3P%/FT%
Player Points Rebounds Assists Turnovers Stocks FG%/3P%/FT%
A 16.6 8.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 0.496/0.412/0.719
B 18.2 5.3 3.0 3.1 1.2 0.396/0.339/0.917
C 16.1 3.9 4.2 2.9 1.1 0.414/0.315/0.773
D 16.3 4.7 3.7 2.0 1.6 0.434/0.292/0.792
E 16.3 3.2 5.4 2.3 0.8 0.415/0.316/0.861
F 16.1 5.2 4.9 1.7 1.3 0.453/0.429/0.824
G 17.2 3.9 4.8 1.8 1.6 0.373/0.326/0.833
Stocks = Steals + Blocks Sports-Reference

Who would you pick? I ultimately settled on A, B, and F.

The Reveal

Player Name
Player Name
A Miles Bridges
B Peter Jok
C Melo Trimble
D Malcolm Hill
E Bryant McIntosh
F Derrick Walton
G Nate Mason

Though both Jordan Bohannon and Tyler Cook were in the top 7 of freshman conference scoring, I was surprised to see them both on the All-Freshman team. It seemed like, as the two high-level Iowa starters in a loaded Big Ten freshman class, they might actually take votes away from each other. They obviously didn’t and are the first Hawkeyes to make the team since Aaron White in 2012 and the first teammates to make it since D’Angelo Russell and Jae’Sean Tate made it in 2015. I really can’t express how excited I am to watch these guys grow over their careers.

To cap it off, Nicholas Baer won the Sixth Man of the Year Award after posting some truly remarkable filter stats:

Any time one posts stats comparable to Draymond Green’s senior year stats, it’s a good thing.

@ Wisconsin (W, 59-57)

Wisconsin Lineups by Net PPM

Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Cook-Pemsl 2 0 0.88 2.26
Williams-Moss-Jok-Baer-Cook 3 0 1.4 2.14
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 3 0 1.43 2.09
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Baer-Cook 6 0 3.25 1.85
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Cook 6 1 3.08 1.62
Williams-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Cook 3 2 1.75 0.57
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Baer-Pemsl 3 2 1.82 0.55
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Cook-Pemsl 8 7 3.63 0.28
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Cook-Kriener 3 3 1.72 0
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Cook-Pemsl 0 0 1.32 0
Williams-Jok-Baer-Uhl-Kriener 0 0 1.4 0
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Cook 6 7 5.58 -0.18
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 7 10 4.17 -0.72
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Pemsl 9 13 3.87 -1.03
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Pemsl 0 1 0.93 -1.07
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Uhl-Kriener 0 4 1.82 -2.2
Williams-Ellingson-Moss-Cook-Pemsl 0 4 1.45 -2.76
Williams-Ellingson-Baer-Cook-Kriener 0 3 0.5 -6

v. Penn State (W, 90-79)

Penn State Lineups by Net PPM

Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Pemsl 5 2 1.28 2.34
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Pemsl 5 0 2.53 1.97
Bohannon-Ellingson-Williams-Baer-Cook 8 2 3.35 1.79
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Wagner-Cook 7 2 3.48 1.44
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Pemsl-Cook 11 4 5.77 1.21
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Jones-Cook 10 9 3.20 0.31
Williams-Ellingson-Uhl-Wagner-Pemsl 9 8 4.20 0.24
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Pemsl-Kriener 4 4 0.93 0.00
Bohannon-Ellingson-Williams-Baer-Pemsl 0 0 0.13 0.00
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Cook 0 0 0.25 0.00
Bohannon-Moss-Baer-Pemsl-Kriener 3 3 1.03 0.00
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Pemsl 3 3 1.33 0.00
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Cook 16 17 4.77 -0.21
Williams-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Pemsl 9 13 4.23 -0.94
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Wagner-Pemsl 0 4 1.77 -2.26
Williams-Baer-Wagner-Jones-Pemsl 0 2 0.75 -2.67
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Pemsl 0 3 0.52 -5.81
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Wagner-Cook 0 3 0.47 -6.43

Quick Takes

  • Tyler Cook has continued his stellar play from last week. The Hawks were .9 points per minute better with him on the floor than off it during each of last week’s game. He posted the best numbers of the post platoon last week, as he went +19 in 33 solo minutes, Cordell Pemsl was -8 in 31 minutes (sunk by -13 in garbage time against Penn State), +6 with both in 13 minutes, and -4 in 3 minutes against Wisconsin with neither on the floor. Potential sparking the positive change was the move to Cook manning the center of the zone with Pemsl on the floor, as well.
  • It’s something I probably look at way too much, but Iowa’s ability to stay within 4 to start the game continue the trend we’ve seen all conference season. -1 in 4:26 against Wisconsin and +1 in 3:12 against Penn State brought Iowa to 9-2 under that circumstance and 4-0 when the starting lineup begins the games in the positive.
  • The second platoon yielded strong results: Jok alone went -5 in 24 minutes, Baer went +16 in 19 minutes alone (largely on the back of the strong first half performance against Penn State), adding +5 in 31 minutes with both, and -3 in 6 minutes with neither.

Do you have any questions you’d like me to explore in a later post? Please let me know in the comments below.