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Lineups in Review: Illinois, Indiana, & Maryland

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The Meat Loaf: 2 out of 3 Ain’t Bad

NCAA Basketball: Indiana at Iowa Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa played their best wire-to-wire game over the weekend. When they jumped out to a 10-6 lead after two Tyler Cook free throws, I had a sense they would stick with the Terrapins.

Here’s why: before the first substitution Fran McCaffery makes, if Iowa is in a hole of 5 points or more, they are 1-6 in conference play. After Saturday, they’re 7-2 when they start -4 or better, including 3-0 when the starters begin the game as a net positive. Further, Jordan Bohannon mentioned after the game when his first shot went it, the make felt like it would indicate the rest of his individual performance against Maryland. Applying this to the other starters, it’s easy to see this mentality carry over to the rest of this young team: when Iowa begins the game with an eFG% of 50% or more, they are 6-1. It flips to 2-7 when they start poorly, including 5 games where the starters didn’t see a field goal attempt go through the hoop.

While none of this is rocket science - I would assume teams who start well are good and often play the rest of the game well - it offers an interesting look into the psyche of a freshmen-laden team. Hopefully this confidence continues and they notch another win or two to close the regular season. If do, they’ll join Michigan State and Wisconsin as the only 3 teams without a losing conference record since 2012-13. (H/T StoopsMyAss)

v. Illinois (L, 66-70)

Illinois Lineups by Net PPM

Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 2 0 0.35 5.71
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Uhl-Cook 5 0 1.05 4.76
Williams-Jok-Baer-Cook-Pemsl 8 0 2.60 3.08
Williams-Ellingson-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 4 0 2.27 1.76
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Baer-Cook 7 5 4.95 0.40
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 0 0 1.30 0.00
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Cook-Kriener 0 0 0.77 0.00
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Uhl-Kriener 4 4 1.58 0.00
Williams-Ellingson-Uhl-Pemsl-Kriener 0 0 1.47 0.00
Williams-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Pemsl 2 2 1.35 0.00
Williams-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Uhl 0 0 0.02 0.00
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Cook 13 14 7.38 -0.14
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Cook-Pemsl 7 10 4.63 -0.65
Williams-Moss-Jok-Baer-Cook 3 4 1.25 -0.80
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Uhl 5 7 2.20 -0.91
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Pemsl 3 9 3.38 -1.77
Bohannon-Ellingson-M-Uhl-Pemsl 3 7 2.17 -1.85
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Cook-Pemsl 0 5 1.10 -4.55
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Cook 0 2 0.17 -12.00
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Uhl 0 1 0.02 -60.00

v. Indiana (W, 96-90 OT)

Indiana Lineups by Net PPM

Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Kriener 2 0 0.02 120.00
Williams-Jok-Baer-Cook-Kriener 4 2 0.35 5.71
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Cook 6 0 2.63 2.28
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Cook-Kriener 14 5 4.97 1.81
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Kriener 8 3 2.85 1.75
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Pemsl-Kriener 12 6 4.22 1.42
Bohannon-Jok-Williams-Baer-Cook 15 9 4.28 1.40
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Cook-Pemsl 7 6 2.10 0.48
Bohannon-Jok-Uhl-Pemsl-Kriener 5 5 2.13 0.00
Williams-Ellingson-Baer-Jones-Pemsl 0 0 0.23 0.00
Williams-Ellingson-Baer-Jones-Kriener 8 8 3.32 0.00
Williams-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Cook 4 4 3.35 0.00
Williams-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Cook 1 2 2.38 -0.42
Williams-Ellingson-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 2 3 1.35 -0.74
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Cook-Pemsl 4 6 1.78 -1.12
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Cook-Pemsl 2 4 1.47 -1.36
Williams-Jok-Baer-Cook-Pemsl 0 5 2.30 -2.17
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Jones-Cook 0 2 0.80 -2.50
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Uhl-Cook 0 4 1.48 -2.70
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Cook 0 2 0.55 -3.64
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Cook 0 9 2.17 -4.15
Williams-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Kriener 2 5 0.27 -11.25

@ Maryland (W, 83-69)

Maryland Lineups by Net PPM

Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Lineup Points For Points Against Minutes Net Points Per Minute
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Uhl-Cook 5 0 0.53 9.38
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Wagner-Cook 2 0 0.75 2.67
Bohannon-Moss-Baer-Wagner-Cook 12 5 4.63 1.51
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Uhl-Pemsl 5 2 2.32 1.29
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Uhl-Cook 8 5 3.82 0.79
Bohannon-Ellingson-Baer-Cook-Pemsl 10 9 2.93 0.34
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Wagner-Cook 19 18 7.20 0.14
Bohannon-Jok-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 0 0 0.07 0.00
Bohannon-Jok-Williams-Baer-Cook 9 9 5.23 0.00
Bohannon-Moss-Uhl-Wagner-Cook 0 0 0.68 0.00
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Pemsl-Kriener 2 2 2.43 0.00
Williams-Ellingson-Jok-Uhl-Cook 3 3 1.32 0.00
Bohannon-Ellingson-Jok-Baer-Cook 3 4 2.33 -0.43
Williams-Jok-Baer-Uhl-Cook 2 3 1.75 -0.57
Williams-Jok-Baer-Uhl-Pemsl 0 2 1.85 -1.08
Bohannon-Moss-Jok-Baer-Cook 3 7 2.15 -1.86

Quick Takes

  • Tyler Cook has elevated his play the last three games. He’s gone 16/31 from the field and 17/24 from the foul line. Iowa’s focus of establishing an inside presence has moved him into fourth in the Big Ten for fouls drawn per 40 minutes according to KenPom ($). On Saturday, he eviscerated everyone who came his way in College Park and notched is first career double-double.

    For a good portion of the Big Ten season, Iowa was better with Cook off the floor than with him on it. According Net Points Per Minute, Iowa has been better with him on the court in 4 of the last 6 games after 9 straight the other direction. Iowa’s offense with him has improved across all Four Factors. The defense has also improved in terms of eFG% and Turnover %. Cook’s Steal Percentage is currently #21 in conference play.
  • Christian Williams leveraged his impact performance against Michigan State into solid play throughout this stretch. He was +12 over 45 minutes as Fran used him in a number of ways, including about 10 minutes with Jordan Bohannon in the stretch runs of the Indiana and Maryland games.
  • The Platoons have been in full effect during the last 3 games: Iowa is +17 in 62 minutes with Peter Jok and Nicholas Baer on the floor, -2 in 40 minutes with just Jok, +5 with just Baer in 19 minutes and -4 in 4 minutes with neither. With Tyler Cook and Cordell Pemsl on the floor, Iowa is -7 in 19 minutes; +20 in 69 (nice) minutes with only Cook; +2 in 28 with only Pemsl; +1 in 10 minutes with neither.

Do you have any questions you’d like me to explore in a later post? Please let me know in the comments below.