IOWA BIG TEN TOURNAMENT SEEDING POSSIBILITIES

As much as we might wish it otherwise, this Big Ten regular season -- which began as an incredible dream for Iowa and has since transformed into a horrible deja vu-inducing nightmare -- isn't quite over yet.  There are still a handful of games to be played this weekend.  Iowa wraps up their regular season in Ann Arbor on Saturday night, with a road game against Michigan.  That game -- and a handful of other games on Saturday and Sunday (plus the Illinois-Maryland game tonight) will help determine the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament.  Right now only one seed is set for that event: Indiana at #1, by virtue of them locking up the outright Big Ten championship in Iowa City on Tuesday night (sigh).

Let's focus on Iowa's seeding options -- where could they be seeded in Indianapolis next weekend?  Thankfully, SpartanDan over at The Only Colors has broken down the possibilities for Iowa (and everyone else in the Big Ten) in exhaustive fashion.  Go check it out -- or just take a gander at the Google doc he's put together.

#2 SEED

No shot.  Any chance Iowa had of landing the #2 seed ended with Wisconsin beating Minnesota last night.

#3 SEED

There are only three scenarios for Iowa to get a #3 seed at the Big Ten Tournament.

a) Iowa beats Michigan, Indiana beats Maryland, Wisconsin beats Purdue, Ohio State beats Michigan State, and Illinois beats Maryland
b) Iowa beats Michigan, Indiana beats Maryland, Purdue beats Wisconsin, Ohio State beats Michigan State, and Illinois beats Maryland
c) Iowa beats Michigan, Indiana beats Maryland, Purdue beats Wisconsin, Michigan State beats Ohio State, and Illinois beats Maryland

You may have noticed one troubling detail with all of those scenarios: they all rely on Illinois beating Maryland tonight.  In Maryland.  Granted, Maryland did lose to Minnesota (albeit on the road) just a few weeks ago and they've the only Big Ten team with about as much negative momentum as Iowa right now (they've lost three of four and barely beat Michigan at home two weeks ago).  But Illinois beating them at home just doesn't seem very likely at all. So Iowa's odds of getting a #3 seed are pretty bad.

#4 SEED

There are eight scenarios for Iowa to earn a #4 seed and get the last double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.  Unfortunately, three of them involve Illinois beating Maryland tonight, so let's rule those out right now.  As for the others...

a) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Maryland beats Indiana, Wisconsin beats Purdue, and Ohio State beats Michigan State
b) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Maryland beats Indiana, Purdue beats Wisconsin, and Ohio State beats Michigan State
c) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Indiana beats Maryland, Wisconsin beats Purdue, and Ohio State beats Michigan State
d) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Indiana beats Maryland, Purdue beats Wisconsin, and Ohio State beats Michigan State

Noticing a problem with all of these scenarios?  Yeah, I thought so -- they all rely on Ohio State beating Michigan State.  In East Lansing.  It's possible, sure -- MSU did lose to Nebrasketball in East Lansing earlier this year -- but it definitely doesn't seem likely. Let's consider these options very low probability.

e) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Maryland beats Indiana, Purdue beats Wisconsin, and Michigan State beats Ohio State

That's it -- there's your one truly reasonable path to Iowa getting the #4 seed and the last double-bye.  Maryland beating Illinois and Michigan State beating Ohio State are expected results.  Purdue is at home, which should give them an advantage against Wisconsin.  Maryland has to go on the road to face Indiana, but perhaps Indiana has a letdown after clinching the Big Ten two nights ago?  It's plausible.

#5 SEED

There are six possible options for Iowa to get a #5 seed.  Half of them involve Illinois beating Maryland tonight, so we're going to eliminate those right off the bat. Let's look at the others.

a) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Michigan State beats Ohio State, Maryland beats Indiana, and Wisconsin beats Purdue
b) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Michigan State beats Ohio State, Indiana beats Maryland, and Wisconsin beats Purdue
c) Iowa beats Michigan, Maryland beats Illinois, Michigan State beats Ohio State, Indiana beats Maryland, and Purdue beats Wisconsin

Those... aren't terribly unlikely or anything.  There's nothing truly ridiculous among those outcomes.

You may have noticed that all of these scenarios rely on Iowa beating Michigan.  There's one scenario by which Iowa can get the #5 seed with a loss against Michigan, but it involves Illinois beating Maryland, so it's not really worth talking about right now.  If the absurd happens tonight, then we can revisit that possibility.

Realistically, if Iowa loses to Michigan, they're looking at a 6, 7, or 8 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, with 6 or 7 being the most likely outcomes.

At this point, the #4 or #5 seed seems likely if Iowa can manage to beat Michigan, assuming that Maryland beats Illinois and Michigan State beats Ohio State (as we would expect).  If all that happens, then whether Iowa is a #4 or a #5 depends on the outcomes of the Maryland-Indiana and Wisconsin-Purdue games this weekend.  That would set Iowa up with a match-up against either Maryland or Purdue in the 4/5 game and a likely game with Indiana in the semifinals (third time's the charm?).  Again, this is all dependent on Iowa winning games -- something they haven't done since Valentine's Day at this point.  Winning a game will involve Iowa rediscovering their January form; they've shown flashes of that at times in their past two games, but it's been buried under long stretches of poor play (especially at the end of games). Hopefully they can turn things around in the next few games.