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The Big Ten announced the pre-seeds for 2016 Big Ten Wrestling Tournament on Monday afternoon, giving us some sense of how the brackets will look at each weight this weekend. The pre-seeds are just that -- preliminary seeds -- and won't be finalized until the Big Ten coaches meet to discuss them on Friday afternoon. But based on past precedent, there shouldn't be too many changes from these pre-seeds at that meeting. So let's take a look at the pre-seeds at each weight.
Penn State and Nebraska were the only schools that each had 10 seeded wrestlers; Iowa and Rutgers(!) were next with 9 seeded wrestlers apiece. Penn State also has the most #1 seeds with four; Iowa has none. Iowa does have the most #2 seeds (4) and #3 seeds (3) and is tied with Penn State for the most wrestlers seeded in the top 4 at their respective weights (7 each).
In addition to the current Intermat rankings, I've also added the new DI Coaches Poll rankings and RPI rankings at each weight. The NCAA also released the NCAA Tournament qualifier allocations for each conference on Thursday, so that information is incorporated into the post as well. The NCAA Tournament qualifier spots are basically automatic bids, except that you don't need to win the entire conference tournament to get one the way that you do in college basketball. For instance, the Big Ten has 7 qualifiers at 125 lbs. That means that the top 7 finishers at the Big Ten Tournament will automatically qualify for a spot in the 125 lb bracket at the NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten has 9 qualifiers at 133 lbs, so the top 9 finishers at the Big Ten Tournament will automatically qualify for the NCAA Tournament -- and so on. If a wrestler does NOT finish in one of the automatic qualifier spots, he can still be picked as an at-large selection. There are 46 at-large qualifying spots, which will be filled by the NCAA Division I Wrestling Committee. The Committee looks at a variety of criteria (head-to-head competition, quality wins, coaches rankings, results against common opponents, RPI, qualifying event placement, winning percentage) when determining who gets the at-large spots. Most Iowa wrestlers shouldn't have to sweat the at-large process.
125
| Seed | 125 LBS | Elig | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tomasello (OSU) | SO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18-0 | 9-0 | 8-0 |
| 2 | Gilman (IOWA) | JR | 2 | 2 | 3 | 21-0 | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 3 | Megaludis (PSU) | SR | 4 | 4 | 5 | 24-2 | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | Lambert (NEB) | JR | 10 | 13 | 8 | 20-7 | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| 5 | Oliver (IND) | FR | 19 | 19 | 10 | 26-6 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| 6 | Jimenez (WIS) | SO | 25 | 15-11 | 6-4 | 5-4 | ||
| 7 | Youtsey (MICH) | JR | 20 | 24 | 22 | 10-11 | 6-4 | 5-4 |
| 8 | McCabe (RUT) | JR | 27 | 27 | 13-11 | 3-5 | 3-5 | |
| UN | Rogaliner (MSU) | SO | 32 | 11-13 | 5-6 | 5-4 | ||
| UN | Polakowski (MIN) | FR | 29 | 12-6 | 3-3 | 2-2 | ||
| UN | White (jNW) | SR | 13-11 | 4-8 | 2-6 | |||
| UN | Thornton (PUR) | SO | 31 | 29 | 16-10 | 2-6 | 1-5 | |
| UN | Edelen (ILL) | FR | 2-15 | 2-8 | 1-8 | |||
| UN | Beck (MD) | RS FR | 5-9 | 0-6 | 0-6 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 7
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: Not too bad. The top 5 were spot-on, but the Big Ten switched things up a bit at 6-7-8, with Jimenez getting the #6 seed, Youtsey the #7 seed, and McCabe the #8 seed. Not that it really matters much -- those guys are slated to face the kingpins at this weight -- Tomasello, Gilman, and Megaludis -- and they'll all be heavy underdogs in those matches.
Note that the Big Ten only seeded out to 8 wrestlers here, which is what they did at every weight where the Big Ten had 8 or fewer automatic qualification spots for the NCAA Tournament. That means that at those weights (which is every weight except 133 and 174) the Big Ten will randomly assign the remaining six un-seeded wrestlers to face six of the seeded wrestlers in first round match-ups. Two seeded wrestlers will receive byes into the quarterfinals. As you might recall from previews from years past, if you have a really good wrestler it's more advantageous for him to get a match with one of those un-seeded wrestlers in the first round than to receive a bye. The risk of a loss is minimal and there's a good chance that he can earn bonus points, which can be vital in the team race. So Iowa fans will want to root for Gilman to get a R1 match-up and for Penn State's Nico Megaludis to get a bye.
IOWA ANALYSIS: Nothing out of the ordinary here. We expected Gilman to get the #2 seed and that's exactly what he wound up getting. He's set up for a quarterfinal match-up with Youtsey; he's 1-0 lifetime against Youtsey, with a 6-1 decision win at the dual last season. Past Youtsey, he's likely looking at a semifinal showdown with Nico Megaludis, which could also have huge implications for the team title race. #1 seed Nathan Tomasello likely looms in the finals if Gilman makes it there; they split a pair of matches last season, with Gilman winning 2-1 at the dual meet and Tomasello winning 3-2 in the Big Ten Tournament finals.
133
| Seed | 133 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richards (ILL) | JR | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21-0 | 8-0 | 7-0 |
| 2 | Clark (IOWA) | JR | 3 | 3 | 19-1 | 8-1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | Conaway (PSU) | SR | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22-3 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | Alexander (UMD) | SR | 12 | 13 | 9-2 | 7-0 | 6-0 | |
| 5 | Montoya (NEB) | JR | 13 | 9 | 6 | 20-6 | 8-4 | 4-3 |
| 6 | Taylor (WIS) | JR | 10 | 14 | 5-4 | 4-3 | 4-3 | |
| 7 | DiJulius (OSU) | SR | 9 | 11 | 8 | 14-5 | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| 8 | Bruno (MICH) | SR | 18 | 15 | 20 | 12-8 | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| 9 | Malone (jNW) | SR | 19 | 17 | 17 | 19-8 | 6-7 | 4-5 |
| 10 | Giraldo (RUT) | RS FR | 20 | 19 | 16-11 | 5-7 | 3-6 | |
| 11 | Welch (PUR) | SO | 29 | 27 | 15-12 | 4-5 | 4-4 | |
| 12 | Yenter (MSU) | JR | 10-16 | 3-7 | 1-7 | |||
| 13 | Shepard (IND) | SR | 11-17 | 1-7 | 1-7 | |||
| 14 | Brancale (MIN) | JR | 30 | 22 | 15-16 | 1-9 | 0-7 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 9
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: We nailed the top four at this weight and the bottom three, but things went haywire in-between those weights. To be fair, that wasn't entirely unexpected -- there were a lot of different ways to slot guys like DiJulius, Montoya, Taylor, Malone, and Bruno.
IOWA ANALYSIS: As mentioned above, at weights where the Big Ten has more than eight automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament, the weight is seeded out to the full 14 wrestlers and treated like a traditional 16-item bracket, with the first two seeds receiving byes. The Big Ten has 9 automatic qualifiers at 133, so it's one of the weights to be fully seeded out. Unfortunately, that works to Iowa's disadvantage -- Cory Clark is the #2 seed, meaning that he will receive a R1 bye. One of Iowa's best wrestlers won't be able to get a bonus point win in R1. Worse, Penn State's Jordan Conaway is the #3 seed, which means he'll face #14 Sam Brancale in R1. Brancale was pinned four times this year and lost twice via technical fall. Here's a weight where PSU could have a definite leg up on Iowa in terms of bonus points.
Matchup-wise, Clark has a rough path. He could see #7 Johnni DiJulius in the quarterfinals; he went 2-1 against JDJ last year, losing a 7-5 decision at the dual and then winning 2-0 and 2-1 at the Big Ten Tournament. He's a tricky match-up for Clark, though. Conaway looms in the semis and as we noted at 125, all the Iowa-PSU head-to-head match-ups will be critical for Iowa this year. Finally, Zane Richards is Clark's likely finals opponent; Richards beat Clark at the dual last year (6-5) and also beat him at the dual this year (5-3). Clark did beat him at Midlands (4-2) and the Big Ten Tournament (8-2) last year, though.
141
| Seed | 141 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan (OSU) | RS FR | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10-1 | 11-0 | 7-0 |
| 2 | Thorn (MIN) | RS FR | 7 | 9 | 7 | 30-7 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Ashnault (RUT) | SO | 5 | 5 | 3 | 25-3 | 9-1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | Oster (jNW) | SR | 19 | 11-4 | 4-1 | 3-1 | ||
| 5 | Gasca (MSU) | JR | 20 | 17 | 19-5 | 8-3 | 6-2 | |
| 6 | Abidin (NEB) | SR | 19 | 18 | 16 | 16-11 | 6-4 | 5-2 |
| 7 | Sabatello (PUR) | SR | 24 | 27 | 15-14 | 5-7 | 3-6 | |
| 8 | Gulibon (PSU) | JR | 21 | 11-8 | 4-3 | 4-2 | ||
| UN | Grothus (IOWA) | SR | 4-5 | 2-1 | 2-1 | |||
| UN | Ervin (ILL) | RS FR | 8-5 | 2-3 | 1-3 | |||
| UN | Weaver (IND) | RS FR | 17-15 | 2-6 | 1-5 | |||
| UN | Bannister (UMD) | RS FR | 9-9 | 2-6 | 2-6 | |||
| UN | Fisher (MICH) | SO | 8-10 | 1-5 | 1-5 | |||
| UN | Grahek (WIS) | SO | 3-7 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 7
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: We nailed the top-6 here, but the Big Ten coaches tabbed Sabatello for the #7 seed and Gulibon for the #8 seed, with Grothus failing to earn a seed. I had thought that Grothus might be ranked aehad of Sabatello because of his head-to-head win over Sabatello, but I can't get too bent out of shape by Grothus' placement -- his performances on the mat this year certainly haven't warranted much love from the seeding committee.
IOWA ANALYSIS: The Big Ten has only 7 automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament at this weight, so the bottom six wrestlers aren't seeded. That means that Grothus could get matched up with any of the seeded wrestlers at this weight. I don't know that there are any match-ups in particular that we should want Grothus to avoid, although it would certainly be nice to avoid the likes of Jordan, Thorn, and Ashnault in the first round if possible. The key number for Grothus is 7, as in making sure that he finishes in the Top 7 at this weight. If he isn't able to do that, his season will almost certainly be over.
149
| Seed | 149 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Retherford (PSU) | SO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 26-0 | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Sorensen (IOWA) | SO | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23-0 | 12-0 | 9-0 |
| 3 | Sueflohn (NEB) | SR | 3 | 3 | 4 | 27-4 | 9-3 | 5-2 |
| 4 | Tsirtsis (jNW) | JR | 5 | 6 | 10-5 | 5-4 | 4-3 | |
| 5 | Pantaleo (MICH) | SO | 6 | 5 | 9 | 21-4 | 9-2 | 8-2 |
| 6 | Griffin (PUR) | JR | 21 | 20 | 13-5 | 5-3 | 5-2 | |
| 7 | Crone (WIS) | SO | 21 | 12-9 | 6-4 | 5-3 | ||
| 8 | Short (MIN) | SO | 16 | 16 | 22 | 13-9 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| UN | Blanton (IND) | JR | 25 | 18-11 | 6-4 | 4-4 | ||
| UN | Dippery (RUT) | SO | 31 | 27 | 17-10 | 4-5 | 4-5 | |
| UN | Stieber (OSU) | SR | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | |||
| UN | Langenderfer (ILL) | SO | 6-12 | 2-10 | 2-9 | |||
| UN | Hodges (UMD) | FR | 4-10 | 2-7 | 1-7 | |||
| UN | Richards (MSU) | SO | 1-14 | 0-9 | 0-8 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 6
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: We nailed the top 3 here, but had Pantaleo and Tsirtsis flipped around at 4-5, Crone and Griffin flipped around at 6-7, and Blanton and Short flipped around at 8-9. T-shirt's win over Pantaleo (and superior history) seems to trump Pantaleo's better overall (and B1G) record this season.
IOWA ANALYSIS: Another weight where the unseeded wrestlers will be randomly assigned, so root for Sorensen to get a R1 opponent and for Retherford to get a bye. Retherford has destroyed most opponents this year, so depriving him of a chance to earn bonus points would be a very good thing for Iowa. Sorensen's path sets up for a quarterfinal meeting with Crone (Sorensen beat him 6-3 at the dual this year) and a semifinal meeting with Sueflohn (Sorensen beat him 7-4 at Midlands and 6-5 at the dual this year), followed by a likely finals showdown with Retherford.
157
| Seed | 157 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nolf (PSU) | RS FR | 1 | 1 | 3 | 27-0 | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Martinez (ILL) | SO | 2 | 2 | 9 | 22-1 | 9-1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Lewis (RUT) | JR | 12 | 9 | 6 | 21-3 | 7-1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | Ryan (OSU) | RS FR | 10 | 12 | 15-2 | 6-2 | 4-2 | |
| 5 | Cooper (IOWA) | SR | 18 | 15 | 14 | 14-7 | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| 6 | Murphy (MICH) | JR | 13 | 16 | 5-7 | 4-3 | 4-3 | |
| 7 | Berger (NEB) | RS FR | 19 | 18 | 7 | 19-9 | 8-7 | 3-5 |
| 8 | Mascola (UMD) | SR | 26 | 26 | 15-8 | 6-5 | 6-3 | |
| UN | Kingsley (MIN) | JR | 32 | 25 | 19-11 | 5-6 | 5-5 | |
| UN | Welch (PUR) | SR | 31 | 27 | 14-9 | 5-5 | 5-4 | |
| UN | Danishek (IND) | SO | 14-9 | 3-6 | 3-6 | |||
| UN | Trimble (MSU) | SR | 9-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | |||
| UN | Ruschell (WIS) | JR | 8-16 | 1-8 | 1-8 | |||
| UN | Petrone (jNW) | FR | 0-13 | 0-9 | 0-9 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 7
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: Nolf-Imar was a no-brainer at the top of this weight and, sure enough, we got that right. After that, though... not so much. Lewis' better records against Big Ten competition trumped Ryan for the #3 spot, while Murphy's lackluster overall and B1G records dumped him down to #6.
IOWA ANALYSIS: We had Coop projected for a #6 seed, which put him on the IMar side of the bracket. A #5 seed puts him on the Nolf side of the bracket instead; neither match-up is favorable for him. He'll have to get by a likely match-up with OSU's Jake Ryan in the quarterfinals to get that far, though. As we've said for a while, Coop will need to do his damage on the back side of the bracket here.
165
| Seed | 165 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I Jordan (WIS) | JR | 2 | 2 | 3 | 21-0 | 11-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | B Jordan (OSU) | SO | 3 | 3 | 14-1 | 7-1 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | Rodrigues (ILL) | SR | 5 | 4 | 8 | 20-2 | 8-2 | 7-2 |
| 4 | Perrotti (RUT) | SR | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20-3 | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| 5 | Welch (PUR) | SR | 8 | 8 | 15 | 26-5 | 7-5 | 6-3 |
| 6 | Wilson (NEB) | SR | 13 | 9 | 12 | 18-7 | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| 7 | Morelli (PSU) | JR | 9 | 16-7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | ||
| 8 | Rhoads (IOWA) | SR | 27 | 9-9 | 2-5 | 2-5 | ||
| UN | Krone (MIN) | RS FR | 22 | 11-11 | 2-5 | 2-3 | ||
| UN | Sutton (MICH) | SO | 9-10 | 5-6 | 4-6 | |||
| UN | Martin (IND) | RS FR | 17-16 | 2-5 | 2-5 | |||
| UN | Burnham (UMD) | FR | 8-9 | 3-6 | 2-4 | |||
| UN | Vettese (MSU) | JR | 7-11 | 2-7 | 2-6 | |||
| UN | Norland (jNW) | FR | 4-16 | 1-9 | 1-8 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 6
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: We got the Jordan cousins at the top right (though that wasn't hard), but had things flipped in the wrong direction in the seeds below them. But Rodrigues-Perrotti and Wilson-Welch were both coinflip decisions; the coin just went the wrong way for our guesses. It happens. More surprising is the placement of Rhoads at the #8 pre-seed; I had thought his uninspiring record would preclude him for getting a top-8 seed at this weight. But there's a pretty steep drop-off at this weight after the top-6, so I suppose it isn't too shocking to see him seeded in that spot.
IOWA ANALYSIS: Of course, that drop-off is very relevant because the Big Ten only gets six automatic qualifiers at this weight, meaning that one of those top-6 guys is going to need to get knocked off for someone else to earn an automatic qualifier spot. Rhoads is looking at a quarterfinal match-up with #1 Isaac Jordan; Jordan beat him via 6-1 decision last month. We're really going to need to see how the bracket shakes out at this weight in order to know just how hard it will be for Rhoads to navigate a path to a top-6 finish (and qualification for the NCAA Tournament). But barring him beating Jordan and getting one of the biggest upsets of the tournament, he's going to need to do most of his damage in the consolation bracket.
174
| Seed | 174 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nickal (PSU) | RS FR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 26-1 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | Meyer (IOWA) | JR | 10 | 9 | 6 | 20-2 | 10-0 | 9-0 |
| 3 | Brunson (ILL) | JR | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17-2 | 7-2 | 4-2 |
| 4 | Martin (OSU) | FR | 13 | 14 | 8 | 24-5 | 5-4 | 5-3 |
| 5 | Jackson (IND) | JR | 11 | 12 | 10 | 27-5 | 6-5 | 6-3 |
| 6 | Barnes (NEB) | JR | 16 | 18 | 9 | 17-7 | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| 7 | Wanzek (MIN) | SO | 20 | 24 | 13 | 17-9 | 6-4 | 6-3 |
| 8 | Robertson (WIS) | SO | 25 | 20 | 13-10 | 5-4 | 4-4 | |
| 9 | Backukas (RUT) | JR | 23 | 24 | 15-11 | 5-7 | 4-5 | |
| 10 | Sliga (jNW) | SO | 13-11 | 1-7 | 1-7 | |||
| 11 | Calderon (MICH) | SO | 6-5 | 4-1 | 2-1 | |||
| 12 | Snook (UMD) | SR | 6-12 | 0-6 | 0-4 | |||
| 13 | Shadaia (MSU) | RS FR | 5-14 | 1-5 | 1-5 | |||
| 14 | Hoselton (PUR) | FR | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 9
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: We got the top-3 right here, but were way off on a few of the seeds after that. Myles Martin is the #4 seed; we had him at #6. Nick Wanzek is the #7 seed; we had him at #5. And most surprisingly, Micah Barnes is the #6 seed; we had him at #10. Things be goofy.
This is the other weight where the Big Ten has more than 8 automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament, meaning that it will be seeded out to 14, with the top two wrestlers getting byes. Iowa will again be disadvantaged by this (Alex Meyer is the #2 seed), but at least Penn State will also have to deal with the same disadvantage (Bo Nickal is the #1 seed). And it might not be that much of disadvantage at all, given Meyer's struggles to get bonus points this season.
IOWA ANALYSIS: Given the way Meyer has wrestled for most of this season, it's difficult to have a lot of faith in him putting together a big run here. His potential quarterfinal match-up (against #7 Nick Wanzek) is an intriguing one, though. Meyer beat Wanzek via 10-1 major decision last month, which was Meyer's only bonus point win in his last seven wins. But Wanzek beat #3 Brunson a few weeks ago and has looked much-improved over the last few weeks. Meyer is going to need to bring his A game to win that match. If he gets past Wanzek, he'll likely get Brunson in the semifinals, which would be a rematch of their wild match at the dual last year (won by Meyer with a pin in the final seconds of the match). And if he gets by Brunson, he's likely looking at a showdown with Nickal in the finals. Let's hope Meyer has been playing possum for most of this season and he erupts with his best wrestling of the year this weekend. Anything less than that and this is likely to be a very frustrating weight for Iowa fans this weekend.
184
| Seed | 184 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abounader (MICH) | JR | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20-1 | 10-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | McCutcheon (PSU) | SO | 7 | 11 | 12 | 14-4 | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| 3 | Brooks (IOWA) | JR | 13 | 12 | 8 | 20-3 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | Dudley (NEB) | JR | 11 | 9 | 3 | 18-5 | 8-2 | 7-2 |
| 5 | Gravina (RUT) | SO | 20 | 18 | 13 | 16-7 | 7-1 | 5-1 |
| 6 | Courts (OSU) | SR | 17 | 17 | 22 | 15-7 | 7-4 | 4-3 |
| 7 | Koepke (ILL) | SR | 22 | 17 | 17-5 | 5-3 | 5-3 | |
| 8 | Christensen (WIS) | RS FR | 32 | 31 | 15-16 | 6-7 | 3-6 | |
| UN | Lynde (PUR) | JR | 12-12 | 5-4 | 5-4 | |||
| UN | Smith (UMD) | FR | 9-13 | 4-7 | 3-6 | |||
| UN | Shadaia (MSU) | SO | 12-11 | 2-5 | 2-5 | |||
| UN | Irick (IND) | JR | 13-14 | 1-6 | 1-6 | |||
| UN | Durbin (jNW) | RS FR | 5-16 | 2-9 | 1-7 | |||
| UN | Pfarr (MIN) | SO | 8-19 | 0-8 | 0-8 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 7
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: I thought this weight might get pretty screwy after Abounader and be hard to predict, but... we did pretty well, actually! Outside of the Brooks-McCutcheon flip at 2-3 and the Lynde-Christensen flip at 8-9, we nailed it. Hooray!
IOWA ANALYSIS: We gonna see good Sammy Brooks here or nah? That's the big question for Iowa at this weight. If he's healthy (he seemed to tweak a foot/leg against NC State last week) and if he can wrestle consistently, he can absolutely win a Big Ten title for Iowa at this weight. But his health is a bit of a question mark and consistency has been a major issue for Brooks, especially against quality opponents. While the Big Ten may be lacking in elite 184ers, it does have a mess of quality 184ers. Brooks could draw an unseeded opponent in the first round, which would be good for Iowa -- he has a good track record of getting bonus points against overmatched opponents. Past that, he's looking at a quarterfinal match-up with Courts (Brooks beat him twice last year, 3-2 at the dual and 4-1 at the Big Ten Tournament) and a semifinal match-up with McCutcheon (they split two matches last year, with Brooks winning 7-1 at the dual and McCutcheon winning 6-4 at the Big Ten Tournament). Abounader could loom in the finals; Brooks split two matches with him last year, too, losing 3-2 at the dual and winning 4-2 at the NCAA Tournament.
197
| Seed | 197 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McIntosh (PSU) | SR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 26-0 | 10-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Pfarr (MIN) | JR | 3 | 3 | 6 | 31-2 | 10-1 | 8-0 |
| 3 | Burak (IOWA) | SR | 4 | 4 | 9 | 20-1 | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | Huntley (MICH) | SR | 7 | 7 | 8 | 18-3 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | Studebaker (NEB) | JR | 11 | 9 | 13 | 18-7 | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| 6 | Martin (OSU) | SR | 28 | 20 | 15-5 | 3-1 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | Hrymack (RUT) | SR | 14-11 | 4-5 | 4-3 | |||
| 8 | Cooper (MSU) | FR | 9-14 | 5-5 | 5-3 | |||
| UN | Masengale (IND) | JR | 9-17 | 3-6 | 3-6 | |||
| UN | Stein (PUR) | SR | 13-20 | 4-6 | 4-6 | |||
| UN | Wesneski (UMD) | RS FR | 7-13 | 1-8 | 1-7 | |||
| UN | Lee (ILL) | RS FR | 11-9 | 1-7 | 1-7 | |||
| UN | Peissig (WIS) | SO | 5-13 | 2-6 | 2-6 | |||
| UN | Berkowitz (jNW) | SR | 4-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 6
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: So close to perfection! I actually had this weight pegged correctly... then flipped Burak and Huntley at 3/4 right before posting my projections. D'oh. Trust your gut, kids. Anyway, there's nothing too surprising or outlandish here.
IOWA ANALYSIS: Burak has been better at getting bonus points this year, so we probably want him to get drawn into a match with one of the unseeded guys in round one. (And, of course, we want McIntosh to get a bye.) Burak should see #6 Mark Martin in the quarterfinals; Martin has seen limited action this year and was at 174 a year ago. He and Burak have also never wrestled one another before. If he gets by Martin, Burak should see #2 Pfarr in the semifinals; Pfarr handed him his only loss this year, a 6-5 setback at the dual last month. And McIntosh will likely be waiting in the finals.
285
| Seed | 285 LBS | Elig. | Imat | Coaches | RPI | Overall | Conf. | Conf.Duals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coon (MICH) | JR | 4 | 3 | 15-1 | 9-0 | 9-0 | |
| 2 | Snyder (OSU) | SO | 2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | ||
| 3 | Stoll (IOWA) | RS FR | 7 | 6 | 4 | 20-3 | 12-0 | 9-0 |
| 4 | Smith (RUT) | SR | 13 | 9 | 6 | 23-6 | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| 5 | Kroells (MIN) | JR | 9 | 8 | 10 | 27-6 | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 6 | Jensen (NEB) | JR | 19 | 21 | 24 | 18-11 | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| 7 | Black (ILL) | SO | 24 | 20 | 16-7 | 5-5 | 4-5 | |
| 8 | Nevills (PSU) | RS FR | 16 | 5-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | ||
| UN | Goldman (IND) | SR | 14-13 | 4-3 | 4-3 | |||
| UN | Kral (PUR) | JR | 11-14 | 2-6 | 2-6 | |||
| UN | Horwath (WIS) | SR | 33 | 15-14 | 3-8 | 3-6 | ||
| UN | Peck (UMD) | JR | 23 | 26 | 16-11 | 3-5 | 2-2 | |
| UN | Renfroe (MSU) | JR | 3-19 | 1-9 | 1-9 | |||
| UN | Jennings (jNW) | RS FR | 6-17 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
NCAA QUALIFIERS: 7
PROJECTIONS VS REALITY: I projected Stoll for the #2 seed because I just didn't think it made sense to put Snyder and his paper-thin resume (this year) all the way up at the #2 seed -- especially over a guy who went 9-0 in Big Ten duals. Clearly, the Big Ten coaches felt differently. Admittedly, there really isn't that much difference between the #2 and the #3 seed in this case -- they're both on the opposite side from Coon -- but it's just the principle of the matter. I know Snyder is a former Big Ten champion runner-up (at 197) and NCAA runner-up (again, at 197) as well as a world freestyle champion... but putting him ahead of a guy with a B1G resume like Stoll really diminishes the importance of the regular season. Penn State's Nevills also rode reputation to a higher-than-expected seed, although in his case it was more recruiting hype than past accomplishments. Then again, his reward for that #8 seed is a likely quarterfinal match-up with Adam Coon, so... have fun with that.
IOWA ANALYSIS: The big question mark with Stoll, of course, is health. What condition is he in after hurting his leg and injury defaulting against NC State last week? We probably aren't going to know the answer to that question until Saturday and Stoll's first match. If he's healthy, it would likely help Iowa for him to draw an unseeded opponent in R1 -- he's been Iowa's best pinner this year and he's done a very good job of turning weaker opponents. That said, if he's not healthy, he needs to wrestle as few matches as possible. Assuming he does wrestle this weekend, he could see #6 Jensen in the quarterfinals (Stoll won a 6-2 decision over him at the dual) and face off with #2 Snyder in the semis, with Coon the likely finals opponent. That would have been tough sledding for young Sam with a healthy knee, let alone whatever state his leg will be in this weekend.
Finally, let's take a look at what the team scoring would look like if everything finished exactly according to these pre-seeds (which will not happen, but let's pretend for funsies). Keep in mind that this is just placement and advancement points and does not include bonus points. It also assumes 0 points will be scored by wrestlers seeded lower than 8th, which is unlikely to be true.
| WT | PSU | OSU | IOWA | NEB | MICH | ILL | RUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 12.5 | 19 | 15 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 133 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 15 | 9 | 4.5 | 19 | 0 |
| 141 | 4.5 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 149 | 19 | 0 | 15 | 12.5 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 157 | 19 | 11.5 | 9 | 5.5 | 8 | 15 | 12.5 |
| 165 | 5.5 | 15 | 4.5 | 8 | 0 | 12.5 | 11.5 |
| 174 | 19 | 11.5 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 12.5 | 0 |
| 184 | 15 | 8 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 19 | 5.5 | 9 |
| 197 | 19 | 8 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 285 | 4.5 | 15 | 12.5 | 8 | 19 | 5.5 | 11.5 |
| 130.5 | 112.5 | 111 | 91 | 76.5 | 70 | 67 |
Penn State is a very solid favorite -- those four #1 seeded guys gives them some seriously powerful horses to lead the charge for their title push -- and Ohio State might not be all that far off the pace, either. Let's hope that for once Iowa has saved their best for (almost) last.