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UPDATED BIG TEN WRESTLING TOURNAMENT SEED PROJECTIONS

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Plant a seed and watch it grow...

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

The regular season is officially in the books for college wrestling now, which means it's time to fully turn our attention to the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments.  Up first is the Big Ten Tournament, taking place in Iowa City next weekend.  We looked at the potential seeds for that tournament a few weeks ago, but it seemed like a worthwhile idea to update those predictions with the regular season fully complete now. Things haven't changed too much from those projections, frankly.

But first, a brief recap of what we know about the seeding process:

How are Big Ten seeds determined?  Good question.  It's not a terribly transaprent process.  While the Pac-12 has a rules handbook that sheds some light on how seeds are determined, the Big Ten has no such document available (that I could find).  We do know that records against Big Ten opponents, particularly records in Big Ten duals, matter the most and that head-to-head results are very important.  National rankings are supposedly not much of a factor in the seeds, but that hasn't always seemed to be the case in the past and it seems inevitable that they would be considered when records are equal and head-to-head tiebreakers don't exist.

Speaking of head-to-head tiebreakers -- or rather the lack thereof -- the Big Ten's imbalanced schedule this year has created some real problems at several weights.  Power in the Big Ten has really become consolidated among Penn State, Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan (and Illinois and Nebraska to lesser extents), so the fact that the Big Ten created a schedule that didn't have Iowa wrestling Penn State, Ohio State, or Michigan has created some real headaches.  Those head-to-head tiebreakers between top guys that should exist simply don't because they never faced one another during the regular season.  Once again: good job, good effort, Delanybot 9000.

And again, a big tip o' the hat to Black Shoe Diaries' bscaff, who did a lot of the heavy lifting on the data for these seeds.  He posted his own seed projections over at BSD, so feel free to give those a click.  The projections here are mostly the same, although I did tweak a few weights.  But big thanks to bscaff!

In addition to the current Intermat rankings, I've also added the new DI Coaches Poll rankings and RPI rankings at each weight. The NCAA also released the NCAA Tournament qualifier allocations for each conference on Thursday, so that information is incorporated into the post as well.  The NCAA Tournament qualifier spots are basically automatic bids, except that you don't need to win the entire conference tournament to get one the way that you do in college basketball.  For instance, the Big Ten has 7 qualifiers at 125 lbs.  That means that the top 7 finishers at the Big Ten Tournament will automatically qualify for a spot in the 125 lb bracket at the NCAA Tournament.  The Big Ten has 9 qualifiers at 133 lbs, so the top 9 finishers at the Big Ten Tournament will automatically qualify for the NCAA Tournament -- and so on.  If a wrestler does NOT finish in one of the automatic qualifier spots, he can still be picked as an at-large selection.  There are 46 at-large qualifying spots, which will be filled by the NCAA Division I Wrestling Committee.  The Committee looks at a variety of criteria (head-to-head competition, quality wins, coaches rankings, results against common opponents, RPI, qualifying event placement, winning percentage) when determining who gets the at-large spots. Most Iowa wrestlers shouldn't have to sweat the at-large process, but a few might.  We'll discuss that in greater detail below.

125

Seed 125 LBS Elig Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Tomasello (OSU) SO 1 1 1 18-0 9-0 8-0
2 Gilman (IOWA) JR 2 2 3 21-0 9-0 9-0
3 Megaludis (PSU) SR 4 4 5 24-2 10-1 8-1
4 Lambert (NEB) JR 10 13 8 20-7 7-3 6-3
5 Oliver (IND) FR 19 19 10 26-6 6-3 6-3
6 Youtsey (MICH) JR 20 24 22 10-11 6-4 5-4
7 Rogaliner (MSU) SO 32 11-13 5-6 5-4
8 Jimenez (WIS) SO 25 15-11 6-4 5-4
9 McCabe (RUT) JR 27 27 13-11 3-5 3-5
10 Polakowski (MIN) FR 29 12-6 3-3 2-2
11 White (jNW) SR 13-11 4-8 2-6
12 Thornton (PUR) SO 31 29 16-10 2-6 1-5
13 Edelen (ILL) FR 2-15 2-8 1-8
14 Beck (MD) RS FR 5-9 0-6 0-6

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 7

SEEDING CHATTER: The big question here is whether Gilman or Tomasello gets the #1 seed.  That's important because the guy who loses out on the #1 seed will also likely have to deal with Nico in the semifinals -- and Gilman, Tomasello, and Nico are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this weight. There isn't much separation there at all.  Gilman and Tomasello both made it through the Big Ten season unscathed, but didn't face each other (obviously). Tomasello wrestled a slightly tougher Big Ten schedule (mainly because he faced -- and beat -- Nico), but Gilman does have one more Big Ten dual meet win if that matters.  Tomasello is also the defending Big Ten and NCAA champion and has been ranked ahead of Gilman all season, so I think he has a slight edge on Gilman for the #1 seed... but it's close.

IOWA PROJECTION: Gilman has been probably Iowa's most consistent -- and best -- wrestler this season, and he probably represents Iowa's best shot at winning an individual Big Ten championship.  That said, it won't be an easy path for him, especially if he has to go through Nico and Tomasello.  He shouldn't have any trouble claiming one of the automatic qualifier spots and even if disaster stuck, he'd be a shoo-in to claim an at-large spot.

133

Seed 133 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Richards (ILL) JR 2 2 2 21-0 8-0 7-0
2 Clark (IOWA) JR 3 3 19-1 8-1 8-1
3 Conaway (PSU) SR 5 5 3 22-3 8-1 8-1
4 Alexander (UMD) SR 12 13 9-2 7-0 6-0
5 DiJulius (OSU) SR 9 11 8 14-5 8-4 5-4
6 Montoya (NEB) JR 13 9 6 20-6 8-4 4-3
7 Taylor (WIS) JR 10 14 5-4 4-3 4-3
8 Malone (jNW) SR 19 17 17 19-8 6-7 4-5
9 Bruno (MICH) SR 18 15 20 12-8 5-5 5-4
10 Welch (PUR) SO 29 27 15-12 4-5 4-4
11 Giraldo (RUT) RS FR 20 19 16-11 5-7 3-6
12 Yenter (MSU) JR 10-16 3-7 1-7
13 Shepard (IND) SR 11-17 1-7 1-7
14 Brancale (MIN) JR 30 22 15-16 1-9 0-7

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 9

SEEDING CHATTER: This is a tricky weight to seed after Richards at #1.  Clark and Conaway both went 8-1 in Big Ten duals (both losing against Richards), although Clark has the better overall record and the better ranking.  Of course, it also doesn't really matter much -- there isn't a ton of difference between being #2 or #3 here. It's also unclear where Alexander will be ranked -- he's undefeated in Big Ten action, but has a pretty limited record.  Sorting through the guys seeded #5-#10 is also tricky since they've traded wins and losses this seasons.

IOWA PROJECTION: If Gilman isn't Iowa's best bet to win an individual Big Ten title, Clark might be -- he has plenty of skill and wins over most of the other guys at this weight (including Richards last year). Going through Conaway and Richards to claim a title wouldn't be easy, though.  Like Gilman, Clark should have no trouble getting one of the automatic qualifier spots and would be a shoo-in for an at-large selection if it came to that.

141

Seed 141 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Jordan (OSU) RS FR 4 4 6 10-1 11-0 7-0
2 Thorn (MIN) RS FR 7 9 7 30-7 8-1 8-1
3 Ashnault (RUT) SO 5 5 3 25-3 9-1 8-1
4 Oster (jNW) SR 19 11-4 4-1 3-1
5 Gasca (MSU) JR 20 17 19-5 8-3 6-2
6 Abidin (NEB) SR 19 18 16 16-11 6-4 5-2
7 Gulibon (PSU) JR 21 11-8 4-3 4-2
8 Grothus (IOWA) SR 4-5 2-1 2-1
9 Sabatello (PUR) SR 24 27 15-14 5-7 3-6
10 Ervin (ILL) RS FR 8-5 2-3 1-3
11 Weaver (IND) RS FR 17-15 2-6 1-5
12 Bannister (UMD) RS FR 9-9 2-6 2-6
13 Fisher (MICH) SO 8-10 1-5 1-5
14 Grahek (WIS) SO 3-7 0-4 0-2

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 7

SEEDING CHATTER: This weight is actually fairly straightforward. Abidin should be thankful that his Big Ten record is solid and that that matters a lot because he's been skidding of late (lost four of his last six).  Oster seems high, but he only has one loss and two of his four wins are over Gasca and Abidin.

IOWA PROJECTION: As I said last time, I have no idea where to seed Grothus and I won't get too angry about wherever the  committee decides to seed him -- although he should probably be ahead of Grahek, Fisher, Weaver, and Ervin, since he does have two Big Ten wins.  Based on what we've seen from Grothus so far (not to mention recently) a title run looks like a pipe dream.  The key number for Grothus is 7.  He needs to finish in the Top 7 at the Big Ten Tournament in order to get one of the automatic qualifier spots and qualify for the NCAA Tournament.  If he doesn't do that, his season (and career) is likely over -- he does not have a strong case to be an at-large bid at all. The good news is that outside of the top three, this is a pretty weak weight for the Big Ten (which makes it even more frustrating that Iowa doesn't have a good option here, but I digress). The bad news is that if Grothus wrestles the way he did against Kevin Jack on Monday night, the weakness of this weight won't matter because he'll be 0-2 and dunzo.

149

Seed 149 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Retherford (PSU) SO 1 1 1 26-0 9-0 9-0
2 Sorensen (IOWA) SO 2 2 2 23-0 12-0 9-0
3 Sueflohn (NEB) SR 3 3 4 27-4 9-3 5-2
4 Pantaleo (MICH) SO 6 5 9 21-4 9-2 8-2
5 Tsirtsis (jNW) JR 5 6 10-5 5-4 4-3
6 Crone (WIS) SO 21 12-9 6-4 5-3
7 Griffin (PUR) JR 21 20 13-5 5-3 5-2
8 Blanton (IND) JR 25 18-11 6-4 4-4
9 Short (MIN) SO 16 16 22 13-9 4-5 4-5
10 Dippery (RUT) SO 31 27 17-10 4-5 4-5
11 Stieber (OSU) SR 1-3 1-3 1-3
12 Langenderfer (ILL) SO 6-12 2-10 2-9
13 Hodges (UMD) FR 4-10 2-7 1-7
14 Richards (MSU) SO 1-14 0-9 0-8

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 6

SEEDING CHATTER: Like 125, this is another weight where both top guys are undefeated since they didn't wrestle one another.  (Thanks again, Delanybot 9000!) Both Sorensen and Retherford went 9-0 in Big Ten duals, although Sorensen has more overall B1G wins thanks to a trio of wins over Big Ten opponents at Midlands this year. Retherford has the better overall record and ranking and my guess is that he gets the #1 seed. Ranking Sueflohn and Pantaleo is also tricky since they didn't face each other; Sueflohn's only losses were to Sorensen (twice) and Retherford, while Pantaleo lost to Retherford and Tsirtsis, but does have more Big Ten wins than Sueflohn. Both guys have been tricky opponents for Sorensen in the past. And Tsirtsis, two-time defending Big Ten champion, is lurking out there as well -- he could be a difficult semifinal opponent for Sorensen or Retherford if he's back to 100%.

IOWA PROJECTION: Sorensen hasn't always looked great since the calendar flipped to 2016, but he has kept piling up the wins.  It may not be pretty, but he generally gets the job done. While his semifinal match should be tight, he's still a favorite to make the finals. Hopefully he and Zain will get a chance to settle the debate over the real #1 at 149 lbs in the Big Ten this year. Like Gilman and Clark, Sorensen should have no trouble claiming an automatic qualifier spot at this weight and would be a lock to get an at-large if he needed one.

157

Seed 157 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Nolf (PSU) RS FR 1 1 3 27-0 9-0 9-0
2 Martinez (ILL) SO 2 2 9 22-1 9-1 8-1
3 Ryan (OSU) RS FR 10 12 15-2 6-2 4-2
4 Murphy (MICH) JR 13 16 5-7 4-3 4-3
5 Lewis (RUT) JR 12 9 6 21-3 7-1 4-1
6 Cooper (IOWA) SR 18 15 14 14-7 9-3 6-3
7 Mascola (UMD) SR 26 26 15-8 6-5 6-3
8 Berger (NEB) RS FR 19 18 7 19-9 8-7 3-5
9 Kingsley (MIN) JR 32 25 19-11 5-6 5-5
10 Welch (PUR) SR 31 27 14-9 5-5 5-4
11 Danishek (IND) SO 14-9 3-6 3-6
12 Trimble (MSU) SR 9-2 0-0 0-0
13 Ruschell (WIS) JR 8-16 1-8 1-8
14 Petrone (jNW) FR 0-13 0-9 0-9

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 7

SEEDING CHATTER: Only two guys matter at this weight -- Nolf and Martinez.  Their likely rematch in the finals here is one of the most hotly-anticipated matches of the entire tournament.  I plugged Cooper ahead of Mascala because they have identical Big Ten dual records and Coop has a better overall record against Big Ten opponents than Mascala, but if a head-to-head tiebreaker is important here, that could easily slide Mascala ahead of Cooper in the seeds. Trimble is a tricky guy to seed -- he has a decent record, but missed most of the season (including every Big Ten dual) due to injury.

IOWA PROJECTION: The goal for Cooper at this weight is 3rd place. Nolf and Martinez are going to dispatch everyone else at this weight, but Cooper could stake his claim as the best of the rest by earning a 3rd place finish. The other important number for him is 7, as in he needs at least a 7th place finish to grab one of the Big Ten's automatic qualifier spots at this weight.  I feel pretty good that he can do that, although if he doesn't he should have a decent chance to earn an at-large bid.

165

Seed 165 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 I Jordan (WIS) JR 2 2 3 21-0 11-0 9-0
2 B Jordan (OSU) SO 3 3 14-1 7-1 7-1
3 Perrotti (RUT) SR 7 7 6 20-3 7-1 7-1
4 Rodrigues (ILL) SR 5 4 8 20-2 8-2 7-2
5 Wilson (NEB) SR 13 9 12 18-7 7-3 6-3
6 Welch (PUR) SR 8 8 15 26-5 7-5 6-3
7 Sutton (MICH) SO 9-10 5-6 4-6
8 Morelli (PSU) JR 9 16-7 1-3 1-3
9 Krone (MIN) RS FR 22 11-11 2-5 2-3
10 Rhoads (IOWA) SR 27 9-9 2-5 2-5
11 Martin (IND) RS FR 17-16 2-5 2-5
12 Burnham (UMD) FR 8-9 3-6 2-4
13 Vettese (MSU) JR 7-11 2-7 2-6
14 Norland (jNW) FR 4-16 1-9 1-8

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 6

SEEDING CHATTER: Ike beat Cousin Bo in the Battle of the Jordans since the last time we did these projections, so that makes things pretty easy at the top of the bracket. There's more to this weight than just the Jordans, though, and I wouldn't say that another Battle of the Jordans in the finals is a foregone conclusion -- the Big Ten has six guys ranked in the Top 10 of the Coaches Poll. Rodrigues and Perrotti are no joke and Welch and Wilson are plenty solid.

IOWA PROJECTION: Which is very bad news for Rhoads because the Big Ten somewhat surprisingly only got six automatic qualifying spots at this weight, meaning Rhoads will need to finish ahead of at least one of those guys to get one of those automatic bids.  That won't be easy -- at all.  Like Grothus at 141, Rhoads probably needs to get one of the auto-bids to have a shot to make the NCAA Tournament -- his at-large case is not strong.

174

Seed 174 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Meyer (IOWA) JR 10 9 6 20-2 10-0 9-0
2 Nickal (PSU) RS FR 1 1 2 26-1 11-1 8-1
3 Brunson (ILL) JR 6 3 15 17-2 7-2 4-2
4 Jackson (IND) JR 11 12 10 27-5 6-5 6-3
5 Wanzek (MIN) SO 20 24 13 17-9 6-4 6-3
6 Martin (OSU) FR 13 14 8 24-5 5-4 5-3
7 Calderon (MICH) SO 6-5 4-1 2-1
8 Morrissey (PUR) SO 13-12 5-5 4-4
9 Robertson (WIS) SO 25 20 13-10 5-4 4-4
10 Barnes (NEB) JR 16 18 9 17-7 6-4 3-4
11 Backukas (RUT) JR 23 24 15-11 5-7 4-5
12 Shadaia (MSU) RS FR 5-14 1-5 1-5
13 Sliga (jNW) SO 13-11 1-7 1-7
14 Snook (UMD) SR 6-12 0-6 0-4

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 9

SEEDING CHATTER: I don't think Alex Meyer is a better wrestler than Bo Nickal and I don't think that, overall, he's had a better season than Nickal, either. But he is 9-0 in Big Ten duals (10-0 overall) and Nickal is 8-1 (11-1 overall). If that matters -- and I think it does -- then he should get the #1 seed ahead of Nickal. Michigan's Davonte Mahomes is out for the rest of the season with an injury, which throws a bit of a wrench into things. Aaron Calderon looks to be his replacement and it's hard to figure out where to seed him with his limited track record, but he did go 2-1 in Big Ten duals this year.

IOWA PROJECTION: Whether he's the #1 or #2 seed, Meyer will be expected to make the finals based on his seed. Actually doing so will require him to wrestle much better than he has for the last few weeks, though, so it's anyone's guess where he could end up at this weight. The good news is that the Big Ten has nine automatic qualifiers at this weight, so Meyer shouldn't have too much difficulty getting one.  (And if he does, his resume should be plenty good enough to get an at-large bid.)

184

Seed 184 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Abounader (MICH) JR 2 2 2 20-1 10-0 9-0
2 Brooks (IOWA) JR 13 12 8 20-3 8-1 8-1
3 McCutcheon (PSU) SO 7 11 12 14-4 5-1 5-1
4 Dudley (NEB) JR 11 9 3 18-5 8-2 7-2
5 Gravina (RUT) SO 20 18 13 16-7 7-1 5-1
6 Courts (OSU) SR 17 17 22 15-7 7-4 4-3
7 Koepke (ILL) SR 22 17 17-5 5-3 5-3
8 Lynde (PUR) JR 12-12 5-4 5-4
9 Christensen (WIS) RS FR 32 31 15-16 6-7 3-6
10 Smith (UMD) FR 9-13 4-7 3-6
11 Shadaia (MSU) SO 12-11 2-5 2-5
12 Irick (IND) JR 13-14 1-6 1-6
13 Durbin (jNW) RS FR 5-16 2-9 1-7
14 Pfarr (MIN) SO 8-19 0-8 0-8

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 7

SEEDING CHATTER: Brooks suffered a hugely disappointing loss on Monday night, but that was out of conference, so it shouldn't hurt his Big Ten seed much (if at all).  McCutchoen and Dudley also lost their National Duals matches, which didn't help their cases to move ahead of Sammy.  That said, seeding the #2-#5 spots at this weight remains a gigantic headache and there are plenty of combinations the Big Ten could go with at that weight, none of which would really surprise me.

IOWA PROJECTION: The questions for Brooks at this weight are: 1) is he healthy and 2) can he string together 3-4 good performances against quality opponents in a row?  If the answer to both of those questions is "yes," then he could certainly win a Big Ten title at this weight.  But those are big questions at this point.  In any event, the top 7 placers at this weight win auto-bids to the NCAA Tournament and Brooks should be able to do that.  (He's also in good shape to get an at-large bid if needed.)

197

Seed 197 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 McIntosh (PSU) SR 1 1 1 26-0 10-0 9-0
2 Pfarr (MIN) JR 3 3 6 31-2 10-1 8-0
3 Huntley (MICH) SR 7 7 8 18-3 8-1 8-0
4 Burak (IA) SR 4 4 9 20-1 10-1 8-1
5 Studebaker (NEB) JR 11 9 13 18-7 7-2 6-2
6 Martin (OSU) SR 28 20 15-5 3-1 3-1
7 Hrymack (RUT) SR 14-11 4-5 4-3
8 Cooper (MSU) FR 9-14 5-5 5-3
9 Masengale (IND) JR 9-17 3-6 3-6
10 Stein (PUR) SR 13-20 4-6 4-6
11 Wesneski (UMD) RS FR 7-13 1-8 1-7
12 Lee (ILL) RS FR 11-9 1-7 1-7
13 Peissig (WIS) SO 5-13 2-6 2-6
14 Berkowitz (jNW) SR 4-12 1-8 1-8

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 6

SEEDING CHATTER: This is a pretty straightforward weight at the top end, with the only question being whether Burak gets seeded ahead of Huntley. Burak has the better rankings and overall record, but Huntley is undefeated in Big Ten duals while Burak has one loss there. I put Meyer ahead of Nickal at 174 because he had an unblemished conference dual meet record, so in the interests of consistency, I'll do the same at this weight and put Huntley ahead of Burak.

IOWA PROJECTION: A 4-seed would be a pretty miserable draw for Burak because it might mean he'd have to deal with a tricky quarterfinal match-up with #5 Studebaker, a very difficult semifinal showdown with #1 McIntosh, and then likely #2 Pfarr (who beat Burak earlier this year) in the finals.  The Big Ten has six automatic qualifying spots at this weight and Burak shouldn't have much difficulty finishing in the Top 6; if he does, he's a good bet to get an at-large.

285

Seed 285 LBS Elig. Imat Coaches RPI Overall Conf. Conf.Duals
1 Coon (MICH) JR 4 3 15-1 9-0 9-0
2 Stoll (IOWA) RS FR 7 6 4 20-3 12-0 9-0
3 Snyder (OSU) SO 2 3-0 3-0 3-0
4 Smith (RUT) SR 13 9 6 23-6 9-3 7-2
5 Kroells (MIN) JR 9 8 10 27-6 7-2 7-2
6 Jensen (NEB) JR 19 21 24 18-11 5-4 5-4
7 Goldman (IND) SR 14-13 4-3 4-3
8 Black (ILL) SO 24 20 16-7 5-5 4-5
9 Kral (PUR) JR 11-14 2-6 2-6
10 Horwath (WIS) SR 33 15-14 3-8 3-6
11 Peck (UMD) JR 23 26 16-11 3-5 2-2
12 Nevills (PSU) RS FR 16 5-1 1-0 1-0
13 Renfroe (MSU) JR 3-19 1-9 1-9
14 Jennings (jNW) RS FR 6-17 1-8 1-8

NCAA TOURNAMENT AUTO-BIDS: 7

SEEDING CHATTER: I just can't put Snyder at one of the top two seeds at this weight.  Doing so would make a complete mockery of the notion that the regular season results matter.  Yes, he's very good and his #2 ranking (via Intermat) probably isn't that far-fetched. But he parachuted in at the end of this regular season and has all of three wins on his ledger this season.  I just don't see how you can seed that guy ahead of someone who wrestled the entire season and put together a 9-0 record in Big Ten duals.  Frankly, even a #3 seed is probably too high for Snyder, given his meager resume this year, but it's difficult to know where he fits.  I just know that Coon and Stoll should be the #1 and #2 seeds in this bracket if regular season results really do matter.  Both Coon and Stoll have identical Big Ten dual records, with Stoll having the better overall record against Big Ten opponents (12-0), while Coon has the better ranking and better overall record.

IOWA PROJECTION: The big question for Stoll is health -- he had to take an injury default in his match against NC State's Nick Gwiazdowski on Monday because he injured his knee and was unable to continue.  Hopefully the injury wasn't serious (a BHGP commenter  said he seemed to be walking OK in the tunnel after the event on Monday, which sounds promising) and he'll be in good shape for the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.  That said, if his injury is lingering at all, it might be a good idea to just put Stoll on the mat long enough to make sure that he'll get selected to the NCAA Tournament and have him forfeit the remaining matches.  He does have to appear on the mat at least once at the Big Ten Tournament in order to be eligible to get an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. Stoll's resume is good enough that he should receive an at-large bid if he needs one. If Stoll does earn 0 points at the Big Ten Tournament, though, Iowa's odds of winning a Big Ten title obviously go way, way down (to about zero).  Hopefully Stoll's healthy by next Saturday and we don't have to worry about any of this.

If the results finish exactly like these projected seeds (which is impossible and absolutely will not happen, but still), this is a rough idea of what the scoring would look like (no bonus points are factored in and I assigned 0 points to anyone seeded below 8, even though some of those guys will certainly win matches in reality), if my math is right:

1) Penn State -- 119.5
2) Iowa -- 118
3) Ohio State -- 109
4) Michigan -- 92.5

Again, that does not include bonus points and it assumes everyone finishes to these projected seeds -- which won't happen (and can't happen, due to bracket mechanics).  But it's interesting to look at.

The official seeds for the Big Ten Tournament won't be set until next Friday, but the pre-seeds should be released at the start of the week and they tend to be pretty accurate for the final seeds. I'll do a new post when they're released.