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BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 1

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Big Ten football is back, which means win projections are back too. Hooray for math! Oh yeah, and football, too!

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Week one of college football is now in the books, which means THOR+ has some opinions. Remember, however, that these numbers are heavily influenced by preseason ratings. These projections will continue to be influenced by the preseason numbers until each team has played five games.

Now, let's jump into the win projections.

Win Projections Post-Week 1

THOR+ Rank B1G West Season Wins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15 Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 3.4% 12.8% 25.3% 30.2% 21.9% 5.5% 0.0%
35 Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 5.3% 12.7% 24.7% 27.3% 17.4% 8.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
43 Illinois 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 5.8% 17.0% 26.3% 26.1% 16.1% 5.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
46 Minnesota 0.1% 0.8% 5.3% 14.1% 22.8% 24.8% 19.8% 9.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
50 Iowa 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 4.3% 12.5% 24.1% 25.5% 18.1% 11.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1%
58 Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 4.7% 13.0% 25.4% 28.0% 18.5% 7.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0%
77 Purdue 0.1% 2.1% 8.8% 19.5% 26.2% 23.9% 13.8% 4.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
THOR+ Rank B1G East Season Wins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 5.2% 22.2% 40.7% 31.2%
20 Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 3.7% 14.8% 29.9% 26.8% 18.5% 4.3% 0.5%
31 Michigan 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1% 9.0% 19.8% 27.1% 20.8% 15.0% 5.1% 0.5% 0.0%
64 Penn State 0.0% 1.5% 3.2% 10.9% 23.0% 26.9% 21.6% 10.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
69 Maryland 0.0% 1.7% 6.6% 15.9% 24.1% 26.5% 17.3% 6.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
85 Rutgers 0.3% 2.1% 7.4% 22.3% 25.6% 22.3% 13.4% 5.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
89 Indiana 0.4% 3.4% 13.3% 25.8% 25.8% 18.8% 8.6% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

With Wisconsin losing to Bama, Iowa stands as the Big Ten West's best chance at going undefeated, according to THOR+. Wait... what? That's right. 0.1%, baby. There is a chance.

As for a legitimate shot at remaining unbeaten through the regular season, Ohio State's odds jumped after they defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Michigan State also has an outside shot at 12-0, but that would require them beating Oregon and then winning at Michigan, Nebraska, and Ohio State. That's asking an awful lot from Sparty, though.

THOR+ Rank B1G West Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
15 Wisconsin 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% 9.9% 23.3% 32.7% 24.9% 6.4%
35 Nebraska 0.1% 1.5% 5.0% 13.5% 28.3% 27.6% 16.7% 6.3% 1.0%
43 Illinois 0.8% 6.6% 19.0% 30.8% 27.0% 12.6% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0%
46 Minnesota 0.6% 5.1% 16.9% 26.2% 25.6% 18.4% 6.5% 0.6% 0.1%
50 Iowa 0.3% 2.7% 10.0% 23.3% 31.8% 20.3% 9.2% 2.0% 0.4%
58 Northwestern 0.3% 4.6% 14.3% 29.8% 29.0% 16.2% 5.2% 0.6% 0.0%
77 Purdue 1.4% 10.7% 22.7% 30.7% 22.7% 9.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
THOR+ Rank B1G East Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 4.0% 20.8% 41.7% 33.1%
20 Michigan State 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 5.7% 22.1% 35.7% 26.3% 8.0% 0.8%
31 Michigan 0.1% 0.4% 3.2% 13.8% 24.4% 27.7% 20.6% 8.9% 0.9%
64 Penn State 0.2% 3.2% 12.5% 27.6% 30.4% 20.7% 5.0% 0.4% 0.0%
69 Maryland 1.4% 10.7% 25.1% 32.0% 21.5% 8.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
85 Rutgers 3.6% 17.2% 27.2% 29.4% 16.4% 5.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
89 Indiana 4.2% 17.0% 32.7% 27.6% 13.2% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%

As for the conference records, Wisconsin and their marshmallow fluff schedule are still the leaders in the West.

On the Eastern side of the conference, it's... well, it's Ohio State. I know how tired most of you are about hearing how good at football they are, so I will just stop right there.

Lastly, before moving on to the team-by-team breakdown, here are the minimum, maximum, and median wins for each team:

THOR+ B1G West Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
15 Wisconsin 8.7 4 11 5.9 1 8
35 Nebraska 6.7 3 11 4.6 0 8
43 Illinois 6.4 2 11 3.3 0 7
46 Minnesota 5.8 0 10 3.6 0 8
50 Iowa 6.8 2 12 3.9 0 8
58 Northwestern 6.7 3 11 3.5 0 7
77 Purdue 5.3 1 10 3.0 0 7
THOR+ B1G East Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
1 Ohio State 11.0 8 12 7.0 4 8
20 Michigan State 8.5 4 12 5.1 1 8
31 Michigan 7.2 2 11 4.8 0 8
64 Penn State 5.9 2 10 3.7 0 7
69 Maryland 5.5 2 10 2.9 0 6
85 Rutgers 5.3 1 9 2.6 0 6
89 Indiana 4.8 1 10 2.5 0 7

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date Iowa Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home Illinios State FCS W
9/12 Away Iowa State 68 43%
9/19 Home Pittsburgh 40 56%
9/26 Home North Texas 110 85%
10/3 Away Wisconsin 15 15%
10/10 Home Illinois 43 58%
10/17 Away Northwestern 58 40%
10/31 Home Maryland 69 69%
11/7 Away Indiana 89 54%
11/14 Home Minnesota 46 59%
11/21 Home Purdue 77 71%
11/27 Away Nebraska 35 28%

Iowa moved up slightly after their victory over Illinois State. It's only one game, though, and while it was promising, we need to see more before proclaiming them the champions of the universe. But if they continue to play like they did in week 1, they should see their win projection total shoot upward. Especially, with this schedule.

Illinois

Date Illinois Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home Kent State 118 W
9/12 Home W. Illinois FCS 100%
9/19 Away North Carolina 39 34%
9/26 Home Middle Tennessee 101 84%
10/3 Home Nebraska 35 59%
10/10 Away Iowa 50 42%
10/24 Home Wisconsin 15 45%
10/31 Away Penn State 64 46%
11/7 Away Purdue 77 52%
11/14 Home Ohio State 1 27%
11/21 Away Minnesota 46 38%
11/28 Neutral Northwestern 58 58%

Kent State looks horrible this season, and should probably be viewed as the equivalent of an FCS team when it comes to evaluating the Illini's strength of schedule. That being said, it was an impressive beat down that Illinois laid on Saturday, no matter who they played. I still think they could struggle once conference play begins, but there is no reason they shouldn't be 3-1 (or maybe 4-0) after the non-conference part of the schedule is all said and done. I'm curious to see what Bill Cubit can do with this team.

Minnesota

Date Minnesota Team Rank Projected Win%
9/3 Home TCU 18 L
9/12 Away Colorado State 71 49%
9/19 Home Kent State 118 91%
9/26 Home Ohio 87 80%
10/3 Away Northwestern 58 44%
10/10 Away Purdue 77 50.4%
10/17 Home Nebraska 35 58%
10/31 Home Michigan 31 54%
11/7 Away Ohio State 1 3%
11/14 Away Iowa 50 41%
11/21 Home Illinois 43 62%
11/28 Home Wisconsin 15 43%

The Gophers played TCU tough at home, but now they have to head out on the road against a Colorado State team with a good offense. I think the Gophers are one of the best teams in the West, but this schedule makes things tough from a win total perspective.

Nebraska

Date Nebraska Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home BYU 38 L
9/12 Home South Alabama 115 92%
9/19 Away Miami (Florida) 21 27%
9/26 Home Southern Mississippi 120 93%
10/3 Away Illinois 43 41%
10/10 Home Wisconsin 15 49.9%
10/17 Away Minnesota 46 42%
10/24 Home Northwestern 58 74%
10/31 Away Purdue 77 56%
11/7 Home Michigan State 20 54%
11/14 Away Rutgers 85 62%
11/28 Home Iowa 50 72%

LOL Nebraska.

Northwestern

Date Northwestern Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home Stanford 29 W
9/12 Home Eastern Illinois FCS 100%
9/19 Away Duke 54 36%
9/26 Home Ball State 106 81%
10/3 Home Minnesota 46 56%
10/10 Away Michigan 31 22%
10/17 Home Iowa 50 60%
10/24 Away Nebraska 35 26%
11/7 Home Penn State 64 64%
11/14 Home Purdue 77 69%
11/21 Away Wisconsin 15 14%
11/28 Neutral Illinois 43 42%

Upsetting Stanford in the first game of the season is big for Northwestern in terms getting enough wins to make a bowl game. It's only one game, though, so it's not entirely clear just how good Northwestern actually is yet (Stanford could be hugely overrated). But if they can find a way to beat Duke in Durham in two weeks, they should be 4-0 entering Big Ten play. Now, who would have imagined that a week ago?

Purdue

Date Purdue Team Rank Projected Win%
9/6 Away Marshall 42 L
9/12 Home Indiana State FCS 100%
9/19 Home Virginia Tech 47 49.9%
9/26 Home Bowling Green 99 74%
10/3 Away Michigan State 20 13%
10/10 Home Minnesota 46 49.6%
10/17 Away Wisconsin 15 11%
10/31 Home Nebraska 35 44%
11/7 Home Illinois 43 48%
11/14 Away Northwestern 58 31%
11/21 Away Iowa 50 29%
11/28 Home Indiana 89 70%

Losing to Marshall is not good for the conference, per se. But THOR+ did project Marshall would beat Purdue, so maybe it's not all that surprising.

Wisconsin

Date Wisconsin Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Neutral Alabama 2 L
9/12 Home Miami (Ohio) 103 94%
9/19 Home Troy 112 96%
9/26 Home Hawai'i 92 92%
10/3 Home Iowa 50 85%
10/10 Away Nebraska 35 50.1%
10/17 Home Purdue 77 89%
10/24 Away Illinois 43 55%
10/31 Home Rutgers 85 91%
11/7 Away Maryland 69 67%
11/21 Home Northwestern 58 86%
11/28 Away Minnesota 46 57%

I'm not sure Wisconsin is the 15th best team in the nation right now, but that shouldn't matter much with this schedule.

Big Ten East

Indiana

Date Indiana Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home S. Illinois FCS W
9/12 Home Florida International 86 62%
9/19 Home Western Kentucky 61 49%
9/26 Away Wake Forest 70 27%
10/3 Home Ohio State 1 13%
10/10 Away Penn State 64 25%
10/17 Home Rutgers 85 62%
10/24 Away Michigan State 20 10%
11/7 Home Iowa 50 46%
11/14 Home Michigan 31 33%
11/21 Away Maryland 69 27%
11/28 Away Purdue 77 30%

The Hoosiers almost lost to Southern Illinois at home on Saturday, so I'm not sure I'd give Indiana a 62% chance of beating Florida International. But we shall see.

Maryland

Date Maryland Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home Richmond FCS W
9/12 Home Bowling Green 99 77%
9/19 Home South Florida 82 70%
9/26 Away West Virginia 22 16%
10/3 Home Michigan 31 43%
10/10 Away Ohio State 1 2%
10/24 Neutral Penn State 64 48%
10/31 Away Iowa 50 31%
11/7 Home Wisconsin 15 33%
11/14 Away Michigan State 20 15%
11/21 Home Indiana 89 73%
11/28 Away Rutgers 85 46%

Maryland fans should cherish the next couple of weeks. It could get ugly quick.

Michigan

Date Michigan Team Rank Projected Win%
9/3 Away Utah 34 L
9/12 Home Oregon State 75 82%
9/19 Home UNLV 125 95%
9/26 Home BYU 38 70%
10/3 Away Maryland 69 57%
10/10 Home Northwestern 58 78%
10/17 Home Michigan State 20 58%
10/31 Away Minnesota 46 46%
11/7 Home Rutgers 85 86%
11/14 Away Indiana 89 67%
11/21 Away Penn State 64 55%
11/28 Home Ohio State 1 35%

Michigan is still highly-ranked due to the preseason projections that are still incorporated into the numbers. That being said, thanks to Taysom Hill being done for the rest of the season, Michigan has a good shot of going 4-1 or 5-0 in the next five games. Of course, if they don't get the offense figured out, they could easily go 3-2 or 2-3.

Michigan State

Date Michigan State Team Rank Projected Win%
9/4 Away Western Michigan 55 W
9/12 Home Oregon 17 64%
9/19 Home Air Force 84 89%
9/26 Home Central Michigan 104 92%
10/3 Home Purdue 77 87%
10/10 Away Rutgers 85 71%
10/17 Away Michigan 31 42%
10/24 Home Indiana 89 90%
11/7 Away Nebraska 35 46%
11/14 Home Maryland 69 85%
11/21 Away Ohio State 1 6%
11/28 Home Penn State 64 84%

I don't know how I feel about a 64% win probability against Oregon this Saturday. On the other hand, this game is being played in East Lansing and Oregon did give up 42 points to Eastern Washington in week 1. I would imagine this will be a high-scoring affair.

Ohio State

Date Ohio State Team Rank Projected Win%
9/7 Away Virginia Tech 47 W
9/12 Home Hawai'i 92 99%
9/19 Home Northern Illinois 52 97%
9/26 Home Western Michigan 55 98%
10/3 Away Indiana 89 87%
10/10 Home Maryland 69 98%
10/17 Home Penn State 64 98%
10/24 Away Rutgers 85 86%
11/7 Home Minnesota 46 97%
11/14 Away Illinois 43 73%
11/21 Home Michigan State 20 94%
11/28 Away Michigan 31 65%

That's a lot of green.

Penn State

Date Penn State Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Away Temple 30 L
9/12 Home Buffalo 116 87%
9/19 Home Rutgers 85 73%
9/26 Home San Diego State 60 62%
10/3 Home Army 126 91%
10/10 Home Indiana 89 75%
10/17 Away Ohio State 1 2%
10/24 Neutral Maryland 69 52%
10/31 Home Illinois 43 54%
11/7 Away Northwestern 58 36%
11/21 Home Michigan 31 45%
11/28 Away Michigan State 20 16%

Things should get easier for Penn State over the coming weeks. As for Temple, that was an ugly loss, performance-wise. But Temple is a good team with a great defense. And THOR+ did pick Temple to win that game, so...

Rutgers

Date Rutgers Team Rank Projected Win%
9/5 Home Norfolk State FCS W
9/12 Home Washington State 81 62%
9/19 Away Penn State 64 27%
9/26 Home Kansas 121 83%
10/10 Home Michigan State 20 29%
10/17 Away Indiana 89 38%
10/24 Home Ohio State 1 14%
10/31 Away Wisconsin 15 9%
11/7 Away Michigan 31 14%
11/14 Home Nebraska 35 38%
11/21 Away Army 126 61%
11/28 Home Maryland 69 54%

Similar to Maryland, Rutgers fans should hug the non-conference schedule tightly and never let it go. /whispers softly Never let it go.