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POST WEEK ONE BOWL PROJECTIONS: OVERREACTION TIME

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Only one week has elapsed on the college football season and IS IOWA GOING TO THE ROSE BOWL?!

So what bowl are you going to lol jk.
So what bowl are you going to lol jk.
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

There weren't a tremendous amount of surprises across the nation aside from an entertaining LOL PAC-12 OVERRATED exposé. Two ranked teams, Stanford and Arizona State, lost to unranked foes and it's best that we don't even talk about what happened with Washington State. Ok fine Washington State lost to Portland State and that's hilarious. Anyway, Stanford's loss is Northwestern's gain. I originally had the Wildcats winning five games so not only does this make them bowl eligible, but I think they're better than I gave them credit for...

Or at least they're better than Penn State, who is a tire fire of epic proportions at this point. You want to talk about a game that was painful to watch. 10 sacks? I thought Penn State was set up to win 10 games at one point. Instead, the Nittany Lions decided to fall down go boom against Temple and it's tough to see them challenging a Big Ten team with a stout defense. Actually, it's tough to see them challenging a Big Ten team that fields multiple defensive linemen because that turnstile up front is going to lead to Christian Hackenberg's premature demise.

Nebraska is this week's loser in the West. Yeah, it's dumb luck more than anything to lose on a Hail Mary but the Huskers were at home, on opening weekend, in Mike Riley's first game. No disrespect to the Cougars but this is Nebraska we're talking about here. How did this happen? Why did this happen? Mike Riley is a nice guy. He does it right. He also loses season openers to BYU.

With Nebraska's loss to a de facto Mountain West team, Minnesota now appears to be the primary challenger in the West. As expected, the Gophers lost to TCU but they actually had an opportunity to win the game until they ran out of time. Minnesota's greatest weakness is that they field a CPR dummy at quarterback and don't really have a "go-to guy" on offense. Like every other team in the West they have their flaws but considering how they looked against one of the best teams in the nation, they've got a chance to topple Wisconsin for the crown.

Let's get to the projections. As always, these projections are based upon the completely unreasonable assumption that a team is as good or bad as their week one results indicate. Shout out to Marc Morehouse.

The Rules:

  • Four teams are chosen for the College Football Playoff.
  • Six bowls rotate for the semifinals: Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, and Peach.
  • The bowls hosting the semifinals this year are the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl.
  • As the Rose Bowl is not hosting a semi-final, it will select the Big Ten Champion. However, if the Big Ten Champion is a playoff team, the Rose Bowl will select a Big Ten replacement.
  • The highest ranked champion from the Group of Five mid-majors (AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt) is guaranteed a spot in the non-playoff bowls if they fail to make the playoff.
  • The Big Ten has a six-year contract with the eight non-playoff bowl games (aside from the Pinstripe, which is an eight-year contract). Per the terms of that contract, the bowls are to select at least five different Big Ten schools over six years.
  • The non-playoff bowl games are informally broken down into three tiers. Tier 1: Holiday, Citrus and Outback. Tier 2: Pinstripe, Music City/TaxSlayer and Foster Farms. Tier 3: Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas/Armed Forces.
  • Over a six-year agreement, signed in 2013, the Big Ten and ACC must appear in three Music City and three TaxSlayer Bowls.
  • Over a six-year agreement, signed in 2013, the Big Ten and Big 12 must appear in three Heart of Dallas and three Armed Forces Bowls.

Bowl Projections:

Bowl

Date

Matchup

Last Year/Last 3 (B1G)

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

12/31/15

TCU (2) v. Oregon (3)

MSU v. Baylor

Capital One Orange Bowl
Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

12/31/15

Ohio State (1) v. Auburn (4)

Miss St. v. G-Tech

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, NOLA

1/1/16

Baylor v. Alabama

Ohio State v. Alabama

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

1/1/16

Michigan State v. USC

MSU, UW, UW

Fiesta Bowl
U of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ

1/1/16

Florida State v. Boise State

Boise State v. Arizona

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Georgia Dome, ATL, GA

12/31/15

Clemson v. Georgia

Ole Miss v. TCU

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL

1/1/16

Wisconsin v. Tennesee

MN, UW, NU

Outback Bowl
Raymond James, Tampa, FL

1/1/16

Minnesota v. Texas A&M

UW, IA, UM

National University Holiday Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA

12/30/15

Iowa v. UCLA

NU

TaxSlayer/Music City Bowl
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL or
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

1/2/16
12/30/15

Nebraska v. Arkansas

IA, NU, NW*

Foster Farms Bowl
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

12/26/15

Penn State v. Arizona State

MD

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium, NY, NY

12/26/15

Michigan v. Virginia Tech

PSU

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field, Detroit, MI

12/28/15

Northwestern v. Pittsburgh

RU

Heart of Dallas Bowl/ Armed Forces Bowl
Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX or
AGC Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

12/26/15
12/29/15

Marshall v. Texas Tech***

IL, PU, PSU**

* - Last 3 refers to appearances in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

** - Last 3 refers to appearances in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

*** - Replacement team.