YOUR STILL-WAY-TOO-EARLY BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS: POST-WEEK 4

No flashy introduction this week, as I am in the process of moving. Instead, I will just give you your weekly reminders that preseason projections still contribute 20% to the ratings below. Preseason projections will be gone from next week's ratings for every team but Rutgers, as they are the only team with a bye week in the first 5 weeks of the season.

If you would like a reminder of how these ratings work, I will direct you to the first few paragraphs here.

To the power rankings!

Rank	Team	Coach	Offense+	Defense+	Special Teams+	THOR+	PPG vs. Avg.	PPGA vs. Avg.	W% vs. Avg.	W vs. Avg.
11	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	106	159	124	131	33.0	15.7	0.756	9.1
14	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	114	146	106	129	34.9	18.7	0.743	8.9
20	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	112	144	115	126	34.3	19.1	0.719	8.6
26	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	117	131	71	122	35.7	22.8	0.688	8.3
30	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	126	124	44	121	38.0	24.6	0.680	8.2
43	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	58	164	134	111	21.1	14.9	0.601	7.2
48	Nebraska	Mike Riley	113	102	92	108	35.0	29.3	0.580	7.0
51	Penn State	James Franklin	79	136	92	107	26.0	21.3	0.569	6.8
58	Illinois	Bill Cubit	87	120	108	103	28.4	25.1	0.542	6.5
71	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	61	133	106	97	21.6	21.9	0.497	6.0
86	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	88	91	67	89	28.0	31.9	0.438	5.3
88	Maryland	Randy Edsall	94	74	155	87	30.6	35.1	0.423	5.1
98	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	83	73	145	81	27.8	35.6	0.376	4.5
99	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	89	70	108	81	29.0	36.5	0.376	4.5

1. Michigan #11, 131 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
54	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	79	112	101	139	106	29.2

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
2	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	141	135	73	145	159	12.3

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
21	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	91	3.8	158	3.4	124

The Wolverines move up in the power rankings this week thanks to a 31-0 whacking of BYU and because their strength of schedule got a little boost from Utah committing unspeakable acts on Oregon. But the more things change, the more they stay the same. Michigan is still the same team they were the weeks before. And despite moving up to number one this week (mainly because Ohio State fell out of the top 10), I'm still not sold that they are a complete team. Their defense does look as if it could be an elite unit, and it should keep them in every game. But the offense is going to need to show that they can run the ball against Big Ten defenses (sorry, Maryland, but you don't count) and that Jake Rudock won't be a liability.

Up Next: at #88 Maryland

Game Watch Rating: 76

Win Probability: 75%

Projected Score: Michigan 36, Maryland 17

2. Ohio State #14, 129 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
31	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	93	119	49	128	114	31.3

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
9	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	158	118	130	105	146	15.2

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
55	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	75	3.7	136	3.5	106

Thus far, Ohio State's offense hasn't quite lived up to the preseason hype. They are an above average unit, but at only 14 percentage points above that mark, this is not exactly the Urban Meyer offensive juggernaut we've come to expect. Still, the offense has a ridiculous amount of talent on it and the defense is playing lights out right now. The Buckeyes got clicking on all cylinders at the right time last season, so they are still my pick for best team in the conference. But they should probably get that offensive issue fixed by mid-November at the latest.

Up Next: at #99 Indiana

Game Watch Rating: 67

Win Probability: 78%

Projected Score: Ohio State 39, Indiana 19

3. Wisconsin #20, 126 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
37	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	103	97	154	110	112	30.7

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
13	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	132	105	87	116	144	15.8

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
40	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	69	3.6	161	3.3	115

The Badgers are probably the biggest unknown in the conference at this point. But even with all the question marks, it seems pretty safe to say that the offense isn't nearly as explosive as it has been in past years. Joel Stave is looking like the classic game-manager Badger quarterback, but the running game is missing their best back in Corey Clement. They have options in the running game, of course, but none of them are particularly proven against legitimate competition. The defense, on the other hand, looks to be strength of this team. In other words, we may have a defensive slugfest on our hands in Madison this weekend.

Up Next: vs. #26 Iowa

Game Watch Rating: 147

Win Probability: 62%

Projected Score: Wisconsin 28, Iowa 20

4. Iowa #26, 122 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
28	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	124	98	111	104	117	32.0

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
31	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	125	115	94	111	131	18.7

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
112	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	83	3.7	59	4.1	71

The Hawkeyes have moved up to #26 in the nation this week, according to THOR+. That is thanks to a huge offensive boost after they lit up a not-so-good North Texas team. At this point, I really do think Iowa has at least an average, and probably even an above average offense (yay!). However, I'm not totally sold that they are 17 percentage points above average. I will continue to take a cautious approach, though, until I see them go against some better competition. Luckily, we should see the offense face a real defense this Saturday in Wisconsin. If Iowa is able to win this game, the win projections will likely be off the charts next week.

Also, I should give a note on the special teams, since it continues to drop every week. Marshall Koehn is doing great, but this is a points per play model and Iowa has only kicked 4 field goals this year (not necessarily a bad thing, of course). But a combination of not many field goal attempts and thus not many points from field goals puts more emphasis on the fact that Iowa has no kickoff or punt return touchdowns, and that is dragging the offensive special teams rating down a bit. Really, though, the punt block for a touchdown given up to Pitt actually hurts the most, since you know, this is a points per play system and giving up a touchdown on special teams is never a good thing. So, don't worry, Marshall Koehn's field goal rating is 36 percentage points above average. He's still pretty dreamy, you guys.

Up Next: at #20 Wisconsin

Game Watch Rating: 147

Win Probability: 38%

Projected Score: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 28

5. Michigan State #30, 121 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
21	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	135	87	154	118	126	34.4

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
34	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	105	111	120	124	124	20.2

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
125	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	68	3.6	21	4.4	44

Michigan State's win over Central Michigan was probably better than the final score and traditional stats suggest, but I'm still wondering whether they are elite, or just very good? I'm leaning toward the latter this week, but it's still early and that could still be good enough to win the entire Big Ten this year. You don't have to always win pretty, you just have to win.

Up Next: vs. #86 Purdue

Game Watch Rating: 78

Win Probability: 79%

Projected Score: Michigan State 42, Purdue 21

6. Northwestern #43, 111 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
122	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	76	93	111	105	58	16.5

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
1	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	142	107	126	96	164	11.2

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
10	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	160	4.5	109	3.7	134

The game against Ball State showed why THOR+ is having trouble ranking Northwestern higher than in the 40s: their offense is bad. I mean, if you can't score more than 24 points against Ball State, what can you do against Big Ten defenses? I say this from experience because Iowa struggled against Ball State last season and their offense finished the season below average. In all fairness, Clayton Thorson did settle down as the game went on, but he's still young and prone to doing the bad things that young quarterbacks do. And Justin Jackson can only do so much when the defense isn't afraid of your passing game. To be fair to the offense, though, the defense also had their issues against a less-than-stellar Ball State offense. Injuries to the safety position probably had something to do with Jordan Williams catching 7 passes for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns, but it was still their worst graded performance of the season. And they still only surrendered 19 points! Anyway, the season probably comes down to skill/luck in close games, so Wildcat fans better hope Pat Fitzgerald has his close game mojo back.

Up Next: vs. #71 Minnesota

Game Watch Rating: 114

Win Probability: 67%

Projected Score: Northwestern 17, Minnesota 9

7. Nebraska #48, 108 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
35	Nebraska	Mike Riley	116	113	82	108	113	30.9

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
64	Nebraska	Mike Riley	71	117	89	105	102	25.2

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
81	Nebraska	Mike Riley	124	4.2	60	4.1	92

The lone Big Ten upset of the week that THOR+ is calling for is Nebraska to lose a close one in Champaign. And, who knows, maybe that isn't actually an upset? But, regardless, Husker fans have seen better days than what has happened over the past four games (LOL), so it's not all that surprising that an 8-point win over Southern Mississippi feels like a loss. And considering the defense continues to hold a GPA around 2.0 against bad teams and an ever lower one against better teams, it's probably a little reassuring that they get to play an Illinois offense that THOR+ thinks isn't very good. On the other hand, THOR+ likes Illinois' defense, so this should be a match-up of each teams' strengths. The key to this game may be whether or not Tommy Armstrong Jr. can limit the turnovers. In other words, buckle up. It could be a bumpy ride.

Up Next: at #58 Illinois

Game Watch Rating: 157

Win Probability: 47%

Projected Score: Illinois 29, Nebraska 27

8. Penn State #51, 107 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
99	Penn State	James Franklin	76	104	134	69	79	22.2

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
21	Penn State	James Franklin	137	113	119	145	136	17.5

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
79	Penn State	James Franklin	92	3.8	92	3.9	92

There's really not much to say about Penn State after beating San Diego State, except that they had a lot of players get hurt. Injuries seem to be taking a toll on a number of Big Ten teams after week 4, and Penn State is no exception. Luckily for them, Army comes to town this week, so they should be able to give key guys a rest without having it hurt them in the win column.

Up Next: vs. #97 Army

Game Watch Rating: 91

Win Probability: 74%

Projected Score: Penn State 36, Army 21

9. Illinois #58, 103 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
85	Illinois	Bill Cubit	85	82	112	109	87	24.1

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
39	Illinois	Bill Cubit	123	117	113	113	120	21.2

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
51	Illinois	Bill Cubit	138	4.3	78	4.0	108

Illinois struggled against a Middle Tennessee team that THOR+ thinks is actually pretty decent this season (#57 in the country). That would be bad if you were an Illinois fan who thought they were a top 25 team after they started off 2-0, but it may actually soften the blow of a close win if you think Illinois is a more mediocre team this season. (Hooray for perspective!)  I think the game against Nebraska this weekend will tell us quite a bit about how good both teams really are. I'm actually kind of excited for this one.

Up Next: vs. #48 Nebraska

Game Watch Rating: 157

Win Probability: 53%

Projected Score: Illinois 29, Nebraska 27

10. Minnesota #71, 97 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
120	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	91	82	80	115	61	17.5

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
29	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	124	108	91	91	133	18.1

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
53	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	116	4.1	97	3.8	106

The good: The Gopher offense wasn't as predictable/crappy against Ohio on Saturday. The bad: Minnesota needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat Ohio by 4 points at home. (Although, THOR+ has Ohio at #59 in the country right now, so maybe it's not that bad.) The ugly: Injuries have decimated Minnesota's secondary. The dreadful: the 17-9 projected score for the game this coming weekend.

Up Next: at #43 Northwestern

Game Watch Rating: 114

Win Probability: 33%

Projected Score: Minnesota 9, Northwestern 17

11. Purdue #86, 89 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
83	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	72	89	61	116	88	24.5

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
83	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	101	93	112	110	91	27.9

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
116	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	64	3.5	70	4.0	67

Every week Purdue loses, and every week I wonder whether or not they will fall to last place in these power rankings. Then I remember that two of their losses came in the final minutes of the game, so maybe they aren't quite as bad as their record indicates. They are still bad, of course, but they could very easily be 2-2 or even 3-1 right now if a couple more plays had gone their way. They are going to need a lot of plays to break right for them this Saturday, though, if they want any chance at beating Michigan State. But, hey, at least David Blough looks like he may actually have a promising future.

Up Next: at #30 Michigan State

Game Watch Rating: 78

Win Probability: 21%

Projected Score: Purdue 21, Michigan State 42

12. Maryland #88, 87 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
70	Maryland	Randy Edsall	48	111	0	101	94	26.1

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
97	Maryland	Randy Edsall	98	89	68	98	74	31.7

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
2	Maryland	Randy Edsall	160	4.5	149	3.4	155

THOR+ expected a 40-19 whooping of Maryland by West Virginia and the reality managed to be worse: 45-6. Now, West Virginia's defense looks legit, and THOR+ has them as the 6^th best in the nation right now. But Maryland is also just really bad. They have no quarterback, Mike Locksley is a recruiter masquerading as an offensive coordinator, and that defense is absolutely porous. It's no wonder the head coach is unaware of player-only meetings and fans are wondering how much it will cost to fire him. Feel free to enter the meme of the dog in the room of fire here.

Up Next: vs. #11 Michigan

Game Watch Rating: 76

Win Probability: 25%

Projected Score: Maryland 17, Michigan 36

13. Rutgers #98, 81 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
95	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	83	90	48	94	83	23.1

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
98	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	96	75	55	94	73	31.9

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
4	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	170	4.6	119	3.7	145

Rutgers beat Kansas pretty easily, so bully for them for showing the Big Ten doesn't have the worst Power 5 team residing in their conference. Unfortunately, that was one of the remaining winnable games on their schedule. But I'll be nice this week since it's a bye. Enjoy, Rutgers fans.

Up Next: Bye Week

14. Indiana #99, 81 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
81	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	126	88	157	120	89	24.8

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
103	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	73	94	101	69	70	32.6

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
52	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	132	4.2	83	3.9	108

Ah, yes, on to the 4-0 Hoosiers that THOR+ has ranked last in the conference (not by much, mind you). We can pretty much confirm that their defense is, in fact, bad. What I think we don't know yet is just how good their offense is. Their intangibles look good in the areas of passing, turnovers and blocking. And running would also look just fine if they would stop giving Devine Redding 37% of the running back carries. However, the concerning part of the offense is that they still have yet to click on all cylinders, which is what is showing up in their below average Offense+ rating. It is taking them a lot of plays to put up the amount of points they are scoring. So, what I'm imagining is one of two situations here. Either Indiana's offense has been unlucky, and the scoring is going to catch up to the fact that their offense is moving the ball down the field at high levels (Devine Redding, aside). Or the offense has been taking advantage of easy opponents and the intangibles are going to drop down and say "Hello" to the scoring in the near future. I'm leaning towards the latter; especially, with Big Ten defenses of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan remaining on the schedule.

Up Next: vs. #14 Ohio State

Game Watch Rating: 67

Win Probability: 22%

Projected Score: Indiana 19, Ohio State 39